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This seems inaccurate. If China will invade (at least 50%), they will definitely do so in the next 10 years or so. So a reasonable guess based on that assumpti

• pc86 3y ago
  Based on what? This sounds like you just pulling numbers out of the air, in which case 1% vs. 6.5% means comparatively nothing. And what makes you so sure that if China invades Taiwan they would definitely do it by 2033, and there's a 0% chance it'd happen in 2034? I'm not trying to be [overly] pedantic but HN is littered with comments basically just making shit up in a language of confidence and precision.
  • jcranmer 3y ago
    I believe Xi Jinping has said something to the effect of "Taiwan should be a part of China by the end of this decade," although I'm having a hard time pinning down the exact quote. Although it should also be noted that Xi also tends to emphasize his desire to see Taiwan unified peacefully rather than force, so it's difficult to assess with accuracy how likely China is to invade Taiwan to compel an unwilling unification. As you say, 1% versus 6.5% is a level of precision that isn't helpful. The way I prefer to think of it is that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is sufficiently probable as to warrant making contingency plans for such an event, but not so probable as to warrant making active efforts to avoid Taiwan.
    • theironhammer 3y ago
      "it's difficult to assess with accuracy how likely China is to invade Taiwan to compel an unwilling unification." Taiwan is 30+Million people. I should imagine that would require a massive military undertaking.
      • deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
  • cm2012 3y ago
    He doesn't deserve downvotes, he gave his assumptions and people can make their own judgements. His odds sound reasonable to me.