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"Fun" fact: both South Korea and North Korea plan on being the first to strike the other in case of a war. I'm sure you can see how that would make them more pr

"Fun" fact: both South Korea and North Korea plan on being the first to strike the other in case of a war. I'm sure you can see how that would make them more prone to take the risk. It's also not enough to have ICBMs, they have already credibly tested those years ago, they want so many ICBMs that the US feels threatened by it (this is what deterrence means in practice), but not so many the US decides it has to do anything about it.

cmilton 3y ago
Do you have a source for the "fun" fact? What circumstances would ignite a war outside of striking first?
- SiempreViernes 3y ago
  https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/08/15/south-korea-s-decapitation-strategy-against-north-korea-has-more-risks-than-benefits-pub-87672 https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/08/15/south-korea-s-decap... provides this account of official ROK strategy: > Every Pyongyang district, particularly where the North Korean leadership is possibly hidden, will be completely destroyed by ballistic missiles and high-explosive shells as soon as the North shows any signs of using a nuclear weapon. For the DPRK the official strategy is not known as far as I know, but in 2022 they passed a new law explicitly authorising preventive nuclear strikes if "it is judged" that ROK is going to strike state leadership. See https://www.apln.network/analysis/commentaries/north-koreas-nuclear-use-doctrine https://www.apln.network/analysis/commentaries/north-koreas-... which also links to a janky translation of the law.
  - cmilton 3y ago
    Who would be "striking first" if "the North shows any signs of using a nuclear weapon"? Using a nuclear weapon would indeed be deemed an act of war. That sounds like self defense.
    - SiempreViernes 3y ago
      South Korea is explicitly aiming to striking first with the aim of entirely preventing the attack, so "any signs" should be read as "very early signs". The ROK generals are talking about striking significantly before the DPRK are clearly using a nuclear weapon, because attacking only in the case of clear use is striking in retaliation.
belter 3y ago
The distance between Pyongyang and Seoul is about 190 Km (120 Miles). Fancy a Nuclear War? Edit: Just to clarify...I mean the distance between both is so short, a Nuclear War is absurd. There is no way to Nuke one country, without making your own country a radiation fallout zone.
- SiempreViernes 3y ago
  The DPRK is probably planning to strike Busan or other ports where American reinforcements would be disembarking.

cmilton 3y ago

Do you have a source for the "fun" fact? What circumstances would ignite a war outside of striking first?

SiempreViernes 3y ago
https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/08/15/south-korea-s-decapitation-strategy-against-north-korea-has-more-risks-than-benefits-pub-87672 https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/08/15/south-korea-s-decap... provides this account of official ROK strategy: > Every Pyongyang district, particularly where the North Korean leadership is possibly hidden, will be completely destroyed by ballistic missiles and high-explosive shells as soon as the North shows any signs of using a nuclear weapon. For the DPRK the official strategy is not known as far as I know, but in 2022 they passed a new law explicitly authorising preventive nuclear strikes if "it is judged" that ROK is going to strike state leadership. See https://www.apln.network/analysis/commentaries/north-koreas-nuclear-use-doctrine https://www.apln.network/analysis/commentaries/north-koreas-... which also links to a janky translation of the law.
- cmilton 3y ago
  Who would be "striking first" if "the North shows any signs of using a nuclear weapon"? Using a nuclear weapon would indeed be deemed an act of war. That sounds like self defense.
  - SiempreViernes 3y ago
    South Korea is explicitly aiming to striking first with the aim of entirely preventing the attack, so "any signs" should be read as "very early signs". The ROK generals are talking about striking significantly before the DPRK are clearly using a nuclear weapon, because attacking only in the case of clear use is striking in retaliation.

belter 3y ago

The distance between Pyongyang and Seoul is about 190 Km (120 Miles). Fancy a Nuclear War? Edit: Just to clarify...I mean the distance between both is so short, a Nuclear War is absurd. There is no way to Nuke one country, without making your own country a radiation fallout zone.

SiempreViernes 3y ago
The DPRK is probably planning to strike Busan or other ports where American reinforcements would be disembarking.