3 ms·

its obviously an impossible question to answer with confidence but i attempted to put some fermi estimates here https://twitter.com/swyx/status/1657603239251181

by swyx 3y ago

its obviously an impossible question to answer with confidence but i attempted to put some fermi estimates here https://twitter.com/swyx/status/1657603239251181570 https://twitter.com/swyx/status/1657603239251181570 and based on kiinda conservative assumptions, ai coders start being competitive in 2028

gwoolhurme 3y ago
This seems sloppy too. Is this based on anything scientifically rigorous? Where I live even startups will take on less profit for a quarter to train new graduates who have never touched an IDE on purpose. The point of training a junior isn’t to be immediately competitive. It’s to take over your job as you move on to other roles.
Mistletoe 3y ago
Thank you!
sph 3y ago
Nice guesstimate, but I have an issue with this: "One junior dev will improve to senior dev in 5 years" That's true only for the HR department. Because code and experience wise, someone that has been programming for 5 years isn't that much experienced than someone fresh from college. In 5 years you barely have time to get to know your editor inside out, and start to have a grasp on your first tech stack. I consider someone to be an experienced developer one that has seen a couple frameworks and hype cycles come and go. Let's say 10 years of experience. Also, AI has 0% productivity. Being able to churn out code without being able to reason about it in the grand scheme of things makes it worse than even a non-programmer in problem solving ability. AI has no problem-solving ability. Ignoring this issue makes the whole thing moot, because it assumes that GPT is actually AGI.
- swyx 3y ago
  > I consider someone to be an experienced developer one that has seen a couple frameworks and hype cycles come and go. Let's say 10 years of experience. sure you draw the line where you feel comfortable, but in the US job market, people get the senior title in 3-7 years, its just a statement of fact rather than opinion.
  - gwoolhurme 3y ago
    I think that is his point. At most places I've worked at in my almost 15 years of experience, a senior title is not a title based on time but based on goal setting. Some places do that better than others for sure, but it's not just a magic you hit 7 years now you are a senior. A senior engineer in 3 years??? That's a SWE who is still taking baby steps in my experience.

by swyx 3y ago

gwoolhurme 3y ago

This seems sloppy too. Is this based on anything scientifically rigorous? Where I live even startups will take on less profit for a quarter to train new graduates who have never touched an IDE on purpose. The point of training a junior isn’t to be immediately competitive. It’s to take over your job as you move on to other roles.

Mistletoe 3y ago

Thank you!

sph 3y ago

Nice guesstimate, but I have an issue with this: "One junior dev will improve to senior dev in 5 years" That's true only for the HR department. Because code and experience wise, someone that has been programming for 5 years isn't that much experienced than someone fresh from college. In 5 years you barely have time to get to know your editor inside out, and start to have a grasp on your first tech stack. I consider someone to be an experienced developer one that has seen a couple frameworks and hype cycles come and go. Let's say 10 years of experience. Also, AI has 0% productivity. Being able to churn out code without being able to reason about it in the grand scheme of things makes it worse than even a non-programmer in problem solving ability. AI has no problem-solving ability. Ignoring this issue makes the whole thing moot, because it assumes that GPT is actually AGI.

swyx 3y ago
> I consider someone to be an experienced developer one that has seen a couple frameworks and hype cycles come and go. Let's say 10 years of experience. sure you draw the line where you feel comfortable, but in the US job market, people get the senior title in 3-7 years, its just a statement of fact rather than opinion.
- gwoolhurme 3y ago
  I think that is his point. At most places I've worked at in my almost 15 years of experience, a senior title is not a title based on time but based on goal setting. Some places do that better than others for sure, but it's not just a magic you hit 7 years now you are a senior. A senior engineer in 3 years??? That's a SWE who is still taking baby steps in my experience.