Yes, it goes a bit far, but the basic problem is treating this as all-or-nothing: Either the article is true or false. Either AI is going to take over, or it wi

Yes, it goes a bit far, but the basic problem is treating this as all-or-nothing: Either the article is true or false. Either AI is going to take over, or it will have little effect. I believe the article raises relevant issues about why deploying AI-based systems is harder and will take longer than it might appear. Another relevant example might be driverless cars. It's taking many years and deployment is still quite limited. Some companies gave up. But I'm not going to count Waymo out yet. Similarly, it's possible that Hinton got the timeline wrong for radiology, but it might still have significant affects on radiologist employment in the end. (Note that this sort of reasoning by analogy is useful for imagining plausible scenarios, but not for ruling things out.)