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I’m kind of exhausted with public policy elites lecturing me about hindsight bias. Year after year we’re treated to idiotic policy decisions with obvious conse

by CPLX 3y ago

I’m kind of exhausted with public policy elites lecturing me about hindsight bias. Year after year we’re treated to idiotic policy decisions with obvious consequence like invading middle eastern countries for no reason, allowing obviously illegal and harmful market consolidation and mergers, mass delivery of opiates to literally everyone, and so forth. All the while people who gain massive amounts of power and money from the system tell us we’re just not “serious” when we predict the consequences. We’re told to trust the experts but then the self apointed expert class is not held accountable whatsoever when they come true. Fuck that, if people want to be entrusted with policy power they should get things right. And if they get it wrong, fine, but let’s hold them accountable and notice who was right the whole time. A lot of the Covid policy decisions were idiotic and symbolic and wildly inconsistent, and many were based on lies or conflict of interest. It’s fine to notice that this is a problem.

lazide 3y ago
So I'm a public policy elite now? Sweet! Those things you're talking about don't seem to have anything to do with the topic at hand though? I agree re: many of the Covid policy decisions you mention at the end, but frankly given the options they had available I'm not sure I (or anyone) could have done anything different given the circumstances.
- CPLX 3y ago
  The systematic corruption of basically all our public policy institutions over the last two generations has quite a bit to do with the topic at hand, which was the response to the pandemic. And not you obviously, but my point is that "nobody could have predicted" is such an overused response by people with authority it should be banned. In every relevant instance of major policy failure people actually did predict it, but the people in charge were corrupted by the wrong incentives, made predictable mistakes, and don't feel like being held accountable for it.
  - lazide 3y ago
    If no one could have actually predicted it though, isn’t it a valid excuse? Who exactly should be held accountable how, anyway? Near as I can tell, none of them were meaningfully violating any laws. If anything, they were being extremely cautious not to. The public health acts give them a LOT more power than they were using.

by CPLX 3y ago

lazide 3y ago

So I'm a public policy elite now? Sweet! Those things you're talking about don't seem to have anything to do with the topic at hand though? I agree re: many of the Covid policy decisions you mention at the end, but frankly given the options they had available I'm not sure I (or anyone) could have done anything different given the circumstances.

CPLX 3y ago
The systematic corruption of basically all our public policy institutions over the last two generations has quite a bit to do with the topic at hand, which was the response to the pandemic. And not you obviously, but my point is that "nobody could have predicted" is such an overused response by people with authority it should be banned. In every relevant instance of major policy failure people actually did predict it, but the people in charge were corrupted by the wrong incentives, made predictable mistakes, and don't feel like being held accountable for it.
- lazide 3y ago
  If no one could have actually predicted it though, isn’t it a valid excuse? Who exactly should be held accountable how, anyway? Near as I can tell, none of them were meaningfully violating any laws. If anything, they were being extremely cautious not to. The public health acts give them a LOT more power than they were using.