7 ms·

It's sadly not that surprising. Germany has a lot of heavy industries that require access to relatively low and stable energy prices. Furthermore, given the cha

It's sadly not that surprising. Germany has a lot of heavy industries that require access to relatively low and stable energy prices. Furthermore, given the changed world situation regarding energy and the lack of developed nuclear power, they will need to rely on wind and solar power to a greater extent. Regrettably, energy poverty is a new concept we will have to learn in Europe, I'm afraid...

qwytw 3y ago
But gas and power are now cheaper than they were before the war?
- pnpnp 3y ago
  Financial markets are complex, and often have a long lag time. There are many compounding factors at play here.
- cscurmudgeon 3y ago
  Curious, won’t a recession do that?
- fuoqi 3y ago
  It's spot prices, which: 1) Can change very fast, e.g. on potential strong China reopening or colder than usual winter. 2) Do not fully represent cost of long-term contracts. Also, with reduced industrial output (especially in energy intensive production) you need less gas. If you try to return to the previous levels, the price will react sharply, thus making growth in those sectors difficult. Finally, a significant amount of electricity generation has migrated from gas to coal, which is not free of consequences...
  - _0w8t 3y ago
    Also spot prices reflect the storage availability. The storage will be filled by October according to the existing contracts. I.e. there is no much room to receive more gas if it will have to be brought to Europe in the next few months. A really cold winter without Russian gas may bring the spot prices back to record levels as then the supply lines will be the bottleneck. Long term Europe needs bigger storage to smooth price volatility.
- c00lio 3y ago
  Cheaper than immediately before the war. Far more expensive than the long-term average of the 2000s and 2010s. Edit: also, immediately before the war, Russia already seems to have started restricting supply, driving up prices.
kranke155 3y ago
Why? How expensive is nuclear vs wind and solar at this point?
- swarnie 3y ago
  The cost of nuclear isn't important to this short term debate, simply having it is.
  - baridbelmedar 3y ago
    Right, solar and wind, although relatively cheap to produce, unfortunately, face challenges when it comes to energy storage. These types of industries require stability.
    - hef19898 3y ago
      Electricity cannot be stored, regardless of source. Base load is a thing, sure. But there are ways ro cope with that, all energy hungry industries in Europe, and Germany, found ways to do so. That includes everything, from steel over chemicals to paper. The lack, and price, of gas for things other than electricity was a problem for a while. But one that had nothing to do with nuclear power.
      - c00lio 3y ago
        Electricity can be stored, mostly in pumped hydro storage, but also in e.g. battery storage, pressurized air or heated rock. But storage is scarce, expensive and doesn't look like it is going to be built anytime soon (for the usual reasons, NIMBY, environmentalism, YAGNI (correct or imagined), "energy abstinence is more virtuous", "we can manage by regulating demand", etc.)
        hef19898 3y ago
        Pumped hydro capacities are all but fully occupied, and few and far between to begin with. Battery tech os nowhere close, nor is battery capacity, to make as much as a dent overall.
WinstonSmith84 3y ago
> lack of developed nuclear power Well, Germany had a few (remaining) nuclear power plants, and the lasts were shut down this year for political reasons. Apparently, it's better to import gas from Qatar and burn coal in the meantime while enjoying a (partially) self inflicted recession.
- hef19898 3y ago
  Besides some random commenters on the internet, nobody swriously links the complex nuclear exit in Germany to the current recession.
  - asah 3y ago
    ? Sorry why?
    - 411111111111111 3y ago
      The nuclear power plants that were shut down would’ve needed extremely expensive maintenance to keep them running. It’s a really complicated issue, with lots of misinformation floating around on both sides of the discussion. After all, nuclear power plants aren’t actually economically viable either without heavy subsidisation and socialising the trash management (at least the ones we’ve had in Germany). While I can’t say wherever Germany should’ve built more nuclear power plants… I’m however certain that most online discussions about the topic are extremely misinformed. The biggest reason for this situation is probably corruption, some of which has been proven and reported on going back decades with Schroeder for example.
      - hef19898 3y ago
        That kind of corruption goes bavk to the likes of Strauss. Otherwise, fully agree.
      - cubefox 3y ago
        > The nuclear power plants that were shut down would’ve needed extremely expensive maintenance to keep them running. That's false. The reason for the shot down was not economical but political. We pay an extremely high price for our nuclear delusions.
draw_down 3y ago
[dead]

qwytw 3y ago

But gas and power are now cheaper than they were before the war?

pnpnp 3y ago
Financial markets are complex, and often have a long lag time. There are many compounding factors at play here.
cscurmudgeon 3y ago
Curious, won’t a recession do that?
fuoqi 3y ago
It's spot prices, which: 1) Can change very fast, e.g. on potential strong China reopening or colder than usual winter. 2) Do not fully represent cost of long-term contracts. Also, with reduced industrial output (especially in energy intensive production) you need less gas. If you try to return to the previous levels, the price will react sharply, thus making growth in those sectors difficult. Finally, a significant amount of electricity generation has migrated from gas to coal, which is not free of consequences...
- _0w8t 3y ago
  Also spot prices reflect the storage availability. The storage will be filled by October according to the existing contracts. I.e. there is no much room to receive more gas if it will have to be brought to Europe in the next few months. A really cold winter without Russian gas may bring the spot prices back to record levels as then the supply lines will be the bottleneck. Long term Europe needs bigger storage to smooth price volatility.
c00lio 3y ago
Cheaper than immediately before the war. Far more expensive than the long-term average of the 2000s and 2010s. Edit: also, immediately before the war, Russia already seems to have started restricting supply, driving up prices.

kranke155 3y ago

Why? How expensive is nuclear vs wind and solar at this point?

swarnie 3y ago
The cost of nuclear isn't important to this short term debate, simply having it is.
- baridbelmedar 3y ago
  Right, solar and wind, although relatively cheap to produce, unfortunately, face challenges when it comes to energy storage. These types of industries require stability.
  - hef19898 3y ago
    Electricity cannot be stored, regardless of source. Base load is a thing, sure. But there are ways ro cope with that, all energy hungry industries in Europe, and Germany, found ways to do so. That includes everything, from steel over chemicals to paper. The lack, and price, of gas for things other than electricity was a problem for a while. But one that had nothing to do with nuclear power.
    - c00lio 3y ago
      Electricity can be stored, mostly in pumped hydro storage, but also in e.g. battery storage, pressurized air or heated rock. But storage is scarce, expensive and doesn't look like it is going to be built anytime soon (for the usual reasons, NIMBY, environmentalism, YAGNI (correct or imagined), "energy abstinence is more virtuous", "we can manage by regulating demand", etc.)
      - hef19898 3y ago
        Pumped hydro capacities are all but fully occupied, and few and far between to begin with. Battery tech os nowhere close, nor is battery capacity, to make as much as a dent overall.

WinstonSmith84 3y ago

> lack of developed nuclear power Well, Germany had a few (remaining) nuclear power plants, and the lasts were shut down this year for political reasons. Apparently, it's better to import gas from Qatar and burn coal in the meantime while enjoying a (partially) self inflicted recession.

hef19898 3y ago
Besides some random commenters on the internet, nobody swriously links the complex nuclear exit in Germany to the current recession.
- asah 3y ago
  ? Sorry why?
  - 411111111111111 3y ago
    The nuclear power plants that were shut down would’ve needed extremely expensive maintenance to keep them running. It’s a really complicated issue, with lots of misinformation floating around on both sides of the discussion. After all, nuclear power plants aren’t actually economically viable either without heavy subsidisation and socialising the trash management (at least the ones we’ve had in Germany). While I can’t say wherever Germany should’ve built more nuclear power plants… I’m however certain that most online discussions about the topic are extremely misinformed. The biggest reason for this situation is probably corruption, some of which has been proven and reported on going back decades with Schroeder for example.
    - hef19898 3y ago
      That kind of corruption goes bavk to the likes of Strauss. Otherwise, fully agree.
    - cubefox 3y ago
      > The nuclear power plants that were shut down would’ve needed extremely expensive maintenance to keep them running. That's false. The reason for the shot down was not economical but political. We pay an extremely high price for our nuclear delusions.

draw_down 3y ago

[dead]