6 ms·

Unpopular opinion: Good. Now if the state of CA would also institute policy that homeowners affected by disasters will not be bailed out we can get somewhere pr

Unpopular opinion: Good. Now if the state of CA would also institute policy that homeowners affected by disasters will not be bailed out we can get somewhere productive. Want to live somewhere with a massive and well-known chance of wildfire, mudslide, or earthquake destruction on top of absurd property prices? Fine, you own the risk (and associated cost) of that. Incentivizing bad decisions is not a viable long-term strategy.

toomuchtodo 3y ago
I would say the same should go for Arizona, Florida, and Texas, all of which will see an increase in risk from climate change. Feel free to move there, but don't ask for a handout when you get punched in the face economically. The evidence is clear, although mandatory disclosure of the climate risk during a real estate transaction is a gap to be closed. > Homeowners are flocking to the likes of Florida and Texas, despite the growing threat of climate-related weather disasters, according to data from LexisNexis Risk Solutions reported by the New York Times. > Property insurance costs are rising across the country, with premiums up an average of 21 percent since 2015. Those bumps are significantly higher in states that carry more climate risk, however, including Florida (57 percent) and Texas (40 percent). https://therealdeal.com/national/2023/05/08/sun-belt-climate-risk-sends-insurance-premiums-soaring/ https://therealdeal.com/national/2023/05/08/sun-belt-climate... https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/05/realestate/home-insurance-climate-change.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/05/realestate/home-insurance... | https://archive.is/RRTW7 https://archive.is/RRTW7 https://impactlab.org/map/#usmeas=absolute&usyear=2020-2039&gmeas=absolute&gyear=1986-2005 https://impactlab.org/map/#usmeas=absolute&usyear=2020-2039&... https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/ https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/
- vorpalhex 3y ago
  You're comparing theoretical future risk to a bunch of burnt out homes that keep getting burned down.
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    I don’t come up with the math, insurers do. Make your case to the folks whose solvency and reinsurance coverage depend on accurate risk prediction. https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/eenews/2023/03/23/experts-climate-change-is-destabilizing-insurance-industry-00088384 https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/eenews/2023/03/23... > The president of one of the world’s largest insurance brokers warned Wednesday that climate change is destabilizing the insurance industry, driving up prices and pushing insurers out of high-risk markets. > Aon PLC President Eric Andersen told a Senate committee that climate change is injecting uncertainty into an industry built on risk prediction and has created “a crisis of confidence around the ability to predict loss.” > Reinsurance companies, which help insurers pay catastrophic losses, “have been withdrawing from high-risk areas, around wildfire and flood in particular,” Andersen told the Senate Budget Committee. > He added, “Just as the U.S. economy was overexposed to mortgage risk in 2008, the economy today is over exposed to climate risk.” https://www.eenews.net/articles/growing-insurance-crisis-spreads-to-texas/ https://www.eenews.net/articles/growing-insurance-crisis-spr... > Florida came first. Then Louisiana. > Now an insurance crisis that has swept across the Gulf Coast is spilling into Texas, where increasingly scarce property coverage has forced tens of thousands of coastal homeowners to buy policies from a state-chartered insurance program.
emodendroket 3y ago
They should just go live in that one place where there are no natural disasters or risks from climate change.
- the_sleaze9 3y ago
  I understand the sarcasm, but gun-to-your-head what do you think that one place would most likely be?
  - jedberg 3y ago
    Atlanta. Not a lot of natural disasters there, far enough from the ocean to be insulated from rising sea levels as well as hurricanes. Too warm for ice storms.
    - emodendroket 3y ago
      Hot and humid could be undesirable depending on how much temperatures rise.
  - emodendroket 3y ago
    I recall reading several years ago that a climate researcher had chosen the Midwest, which intuitively makes a certain sense — not very hot, no ocean coasts to worry about, lots of fresh water.
    - gensym 3y ago
      As someone from the midwest, I can confirm that midwesterners tend to be pretty smug about climate change. ("It'll make our winters milder!" is a common sentiment.). They probably shouldn't be, though: https://www.chicagomag.com/city-life/june-2017/climate-change-could-make-illinois-dangerously-hot/ https://www.chicagomag.com/city-life/june-2017/climate-chang...
  - Schiendelman 3y ago
    The Olympic coast. The smoke tends not to hit, there’s lots of fresh water, and temperatures are mediated by latitude and ocean effect.
bcrosby95 3y ago
If you recursively remove people in the fire prone urban wildland interface there would be no one left in the state. Some people are just in a bad place though altogether. I don't know a good way to differentiate between the two.
jedberg 3y ago
You're getting downvoted, but the data is on your side. People will knowingly buy homes in areas with high risk because they know insurance or the government will bail them out, so home prices don't properly reflect the risk. For example, houses in New Orleans should be nearly $0 because of the risk, but since FEMA will rebuild your house in a flood, they aren't. There are houses there where FEMA has paid out 10x the current value because they've been destroyed so many times. I understand people have attachments to their place of birth or upbringing, and that's fine. But the house prices should reflect that. Imagine instead of the home costing $300,000 and you have to get a loan for that, the house costs $300 but they give you a loan for $300,000 to rebuild if it gets destroyed. This would cause people to gravitate towards homes that are less likely to be destroyed because then you don't have to take on the $300,000 loan. It's standard risk aversion.
ecf 3y ago
This is all fun and games until insurers just stop insuring Midwest homes in tornado zones, flood planes, etc. Not sure why this idea is being upvoted simply because it’s about California.

toomuchtodo 3y ago

I would say the same should go for Arizona, Florida, and Texas, all of which will see an increase in risk from climate change. Feel free to move there, but don't ask for a handout when you get punched in the face economically. The evidence is clear, although mandatory disclosure of the climate risk during a real estate transaction is a gap to be closed. > Homeowners are flocking to the likes of Florida and Texas, despite the growing threat of climate-related weather disasters, according to data from LexisNexis Risk Solutions reported by the New York Times. > Property insurance costs are rising across the country, with premiums up an average of 21 percent since 2015. Those bumps are significantly higher in states that carry more climate risk, however, including Florida (57 percent) and Texas (40 percent). https://therealdeal.com/national/2023/05/08/sun-belt-climate-risk-sends-insurance-premiums-soaring/ https://therealdeal.com/national/2023/05/08/sun-belt-climate... https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/05/realestate/home-insurance-climate-change.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/05/realestate/home-insurance... | https://archive.is/RRTW7 https://archive.is/RRTW7 https://impactlab.org/map/#usmeas=absolute&usyear=2020-2039&gmeas=absolute&gyear=1986-2005 https://impactlab.org/map/#usmeas=absolute&usyear=2020-2039&... https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/ https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/

vorpalhex 3y ago
You're comparing theoretical future risk to a bunch of burnt out homes that keep getting burned down.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  I don’t come up with the math, insurers do. Make your case to the folks whose solvency and reinsurance coverage depend on accurate risk prediction. https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/eenews/2023/03/23/experts-climate-change-is-destabilizing-insurance-industry-00088384 https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/eenews/2023/03/23... > The president of one of the world’s largest insurance brokers warned Wednesday that climate change is destabilizing the insurance industry, driving up prices and pushing insurers out of high-risk markets. > Aon PLC President Eric Andersen told a Senate committee that climate change is injecting uncertainty into an industry built on risk prediction and has created “a crisis of confidence around the ability to predict loss.” > Reinsurance companies, which help insurers pay catastrophic losses, “have been withdrawing from high-risk areas, around wildfire and flood in particular,” Andersen told the Senate Budget Committee. > He added, “Just as the U.S. economy was overexposed to mortgage risk in 2008, the economy today is over exposed to climate risk.” https://www.eenews.net/articles/growing-insurance-crisis-spreads-to-texas/ https://www.eenews.net/articles/growing-insurance-crisis-spr... > Florida came first. Then Louisiana. > Now an insurance crisis that has swept across the Gulf Coast is spilling into Texas, where increasingly scarce property coverage has forced tens of thousands of coastal homeowners to buy policies from a state-chartered insurance program.

emodendroket 3y ago

They should just go live in that one place where there are no natural disasters or risks from climate change.

the_sleaze9 3y ago
I understand the sarcasm, but gun-to-your-head what do you think that one place would most likely be?
- jedberg 3y ago
  Atlanta. Not a lot of natural disasters there, far enough from the ocean to be insulated from rising sea levels as well as hurricanes. Too warm for ice storms.
  - emodendroket 3y ago
    Hot and humid could be undesirable depending on how much temperatures rise.
- emodendroket 3y ago
  I recall reading several years ago that a climate researcher had chosen the Midwest, which intuitively makes a certain sense — not very hot, no ocean coasts to worry about, lots of fresh water.
  - gensym 3y ago
    As someone from the midwest, I can confirm that midwesterners tend to be pretty smug about climate change. ("It'll make our winters milder!" is a common sentiment.). They probably shouldn't be, though: https://www.chicagomag.com/city-life/june-2017/climate-change-could-make-illinois-dangerously-hot/ https://www.chicagomag.com/city-life/june-2017/climate-chang...
- Schiendelman 3y ago
  The Olympic coast. The smoke tends not to hit, there’s lots of fresh water, and temperatures are mediated by latitude and ocean effect.

bcrosby95 3y ago

If you recursively remove people in the fire prone urban wildland interface there would be no one left in the state. Some people are just in a bad place though altogether. I don't know a good way to differentiate between the two.

jedberg 3y ago

You're getting downvoted, but the data is on your side. People will knowingly buy homes in areas with high risk because they know insurance or the government will bail them out, so home prices don't properly reflect the risk. For example, houses in New Orleans should be nearly $0 because of the risk, but since FEMA will rebuild your house in a flood, they aren't. There are houses there where FEMA has paid out 10x the current value because they've been destroyed so many times. I understand people have attachments to their place of birth or upbringing, and that's fine. But the house prices should reflect that. Imagine instead of the home costing $300,000 and you have to get a loan for that, the house costs $300 but they give you a loan for $300,000 to rebuild if it gets destroyed. This would cause people to gravitate towards homes that are less likely to be destroyed because then you don't have to take on the $300,000 loan. It's standard risk aversion.

ecf 3y ago

This is all fun and games until insurers just stop insuring Midwest homes in tornado zones, flood planes, etc. Not sure why this idea is being upvoted simply because it’s about California.