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Countries get old fast, here is a fertility rate of 1 (higher than South Korea): Year 0: 100 newborns Year 20: 100 twenties, 50 newborns Year 40: 100 forties
by mensetmanusman 3y ago
Countries get old fast, here is a fertility rate of 1 (higher than South Korea):
Year 0: 100 newborns
Year 20: 100 twenties, 50 newborns
Year 40: 100 forties, 50 twenties, 25 newborns
Year 60: 100 sixties, 50 forties, 25 twenties, 12 newborns
Year 80: 50 sixties, 25 forties, 12 twenties, 6 newborns
Year 100: 25 sixties, 12 forties, 6 twenties, 3 newborns
Year 120: 12 sixties, 6 forties, 3 twenties, 1 newborn
We are nearing the midpoint of this in many parts of the world. Labor and GDP be gone.
- than3 3y agoGDP was never an accurate measure of national production. It makes no distinction between the number of people its concentrated in. You can't really claim its national production if only one person controls it, as in some countries is done...
- maerF0x0 3y agoAnd that's why replacement rate (including immigration) is important to the stability of society. With a dynamic value (exponential growth or decay) we struggle to properly predict the future needs. But with a stablish pattern we can mostly maintain, with little adaptations along the way.
- pg_1234 3y agoActually you achieve a kind of financial stability in the above example if each older generation relinquishes their accumulated wealth to the younger generation as a 2 to 1 rate. i.e. 2 Boomers give up their wealth to 1 Millennial for services rendered. The "haves" just don't like how the supply and demand equation is swinging back in favor of the "have not but can still work". As for the services rendered in return, well, supply side constraints dictate you settle for what's available ... that's all there is.
- mensetmanusman 3y agoThere is much less to buy or afford when there is so much competition for the small workforce providing services or labor.