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Two problems with this. First, rising wages in China isn't going to bring jobs back to the US. It'll bring jobs to India. Second, from the perspective of as ca

by latch 15y ago

Two problems with this. First, rising wages in China isn't going to bring jobs back to the US. It'll bring jobs to India. Second, from the perspective of as casual observer, it would seem Apple's success disproves all three of your concern..they seem to have ample control, IP theft doesn't seem to be a problem (Samsung "stealing" design elements, isn't a manufacturing issue), and their time to market is phenomenal.

learc83 15y ago
>It'll bring jobs to India. Unless automation catches up first. You're right that jobs will keep jumping from country to county as wages rise in previously developing areas. However, that will end when automation reaches the point where it's cheaper to have robots in the US build it. Also, one question I have is this: is the difference in wages between the U.S. and India, less than the difference in wages between the U.S. and China when these jobs started moving there?
eaurouge 15y ago
The fact that the iPhone hasn't been cloned in China doesn't mean intellectual theft doesn't occur. Given so much lower hanging fruit to clone, why bother cloning iPhone? And why exactly would manufacturing jobs go to India? Is there some preexisting manufacturing industry I'm not aware of?
- nknight 15y ago
  I don't know how the economics work out at the moment, but India does have a couple benefits. A lot more people speak English well (like ten times as many), and it's culturally more accessible to the west. They were under British rule until after World War II, and have in general a long history of closer ties to the western world. It's also less politically sensitive in the US. Americans have a knee-jerk reaction to China that goes far beyond outsourcing and call center complaints. India is seen as an ally rather than a potential military threat.
  - pdelgallego 15y ago
    India have even more good reasons: - India's domestic consumption accounts for 57% of the GPD. - India's housing bubble is not even close to what has been going on in China. - 650 million Indian's are estimated to live on $2 a day (100 millions in china). - India's population will overtake china's during the 2020's OTHO, India has other problems like endemic corruption, less investment in infrastructure, or terrible levels of inflation for example.
    - nknight 15y ago
      From what I've seen, I'm not sure corruption is much less of a problem in China, I think it just manifests differently. Arguably an openly-corrupt society has advantages over a quietly-corrupt one.
- latch 15y ago
  Nope, not pre-existing, but emerging. There are a number of reports on the topic, Wiki references one by PwC (1). There's also the fact that China appears to be heading for a serious problem with respect to the age of its population. Conversely, India is expected to maintain population growth for at least a couple decades longer than China. (1) http://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/world-2050/pdf/world-in-2050-jan-2011.pdf http://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/world-2050/pdf/world-in-2050-jan...

by latch 15y ago

learc83 15y ago

>It'll bring jobs to India. Unless automation catches up first. You're right that jobs will keep jumping from country to county as wages rise in previously developing areas. However, that will end when automation reaches the point where it's cheaper to have robots in the US build it. Also, one question I have is this: is the difference in wages between the U.S. and India, less than the difference in wages between the U.S. and China when these jobs started moving there?

eaurouge 15y ago

The fact that the iPhone hasn't been cloned in China doesn't mean intellectual theft doesn't occur. Given so much lower hanging fruit to clone, why bother cloning iPhone? And why exactly would manufacturing jobs go to India? Is there some preexisting manufacturing industry I'm not aware of?

nknight 15y ago
I don't know how the economics work out at the moment, but India does have a couple benefits. A lot more people speak English well (like ten times as many), and it's culturally more accessible to the west. They were under British rule until after World War II, and have in general a long history of closer ties to the western world. It's also less politically sensitive in the US. Americans have a knee-jerk reaction to China that goes far beyond outsourcing and call center complaints. India is seen as an ally rather than a potential military threat.
- pdelgallego 15y ago
  India have even more good reasons: - India's domestic consumption accounts for 57% of the GPD. - India's housing bubble is not even close to what has been going on in China. - 650 million Indian's are estimated to live on $2 a day (100 millions in china). - India's population will overtake china's during the 2020's OTHO, India has other problems like endemic corruption, less investment in infrastructure, or terrible levels of inflation for example.
  - nknight 15y ago
    From what I've seen, I'm not sure corruption is much less of a problem in China, I think it just manifests differently. Arguably an openly-corrupt society has advantages over a quietly-corrupt one.
latch 15y ago
Nope, not pre-existing, but emerging. There are a number of reports on the topic, Wiki references one by PwC (1). There's also the fact that China appears to be heading for a serious problem with respect to the age of its population. Conversely, India is expected to maintain population growth for at least a couple decades longer than China. (1) http://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/world-2050/pdf/world-in-2050-jan-2011.pdf http://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/world-2050/pdf/world-in-2050-jan...