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I suggest you take a first principle approach to Covid: calculate by yourself the probability of the epicenter to happen in Wuhan by accident. Assume every stat
by alfor 3y ago
I suggest you take a first principle approach to Covid: calculate by yourself the probability of the epicenter to happen in Wuhan by accident. Assume every state and large organisation is not incentivized to tell the truth. (You could call this conspiracy thinking, but try it by yourself, add a very large safety factor as we can make mistakes if not expert in the matter)
For CO2 it’s similar, find people who have the opposite argument of the common narrative and see how it stack up.
The current panic assume a positive feedback, a runaway system, while it’s not impossible it’s highly unlikely. Natural phenomenon are usually self correcting or they would be in constant oscillation. One of such is the ice age/warm period where we were at the bottom of a little ice age, thus it’s normal it’s heating up again.
For Solar / Green energy look into Tony Seba he made prediction that turned out to be right about it.
The way I see it the technological development of the human race is going so fast that most problem we picture in 20, 30, 50 years will be solved way before we are there.
As an example a big CO2 producer is China and India, they are going into population collapse (as we are) and thus event without new tech you can expect their grow to plateau and then collapse in the next few years.
What concern me more than climate change is:
- totalitarian tendency of our democracies at the moment: digital currency, internet control, media capture
- Poor countries where if we raise energy price we will starve them (fertilizer, transport)
- AI / AGI we are almost there, no telling what will happen after that
- Population collapse: cultural but also chemicals in our food chain
- Pharma capture of our institution: being sick is profitable, especially if chronically
- Epidemic of mental illness: depression, anxiety, meaninglessness, bleak vision of our future of humanity