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To the extent that EVs last longer with very low maintenance costs, people will likely keep them even longer than they would keep other cars. And if Tesla can a

To the extent that EVs last longer with very low maintenance costs, people will likely keep them even longer than they would keep other cars. And if Tesla can accelerate purchases of people who are considering getting an EV, they can drain the pool of potential EV buyers before other manufacturers are fully up and running. As a result, other manufacturers will have to anticipate lower sales numbers, which means they would set higher prices (because much of the cost is in tooling and other fixed costs of production). It could create a nasty situation for other manufacturers, especially those that are not large enough spread the costs of EV manufacturing across other successful product lines.

op00to 3y ago
Why would EVs last longer?
- gnicholas 3y ago
  People would keep them longer if they don't have to do fairly expensive preventative maintenance on belts, transmission, etc. There is of course the battery to worry about, and it remains to be seen how this will play out over decades.
  - Grazester 3y ago
    Expensive maintenance in belts and transmissions? As in changing a belt and fluid? That should cost $300 tops for both. One done every 100k miles the other 50-100(Toyota recommends changing the fluid at that 90k intervals but it's preventative for me). Depending on the car(my Toyota) you can do both yourself on a Saturday evening for about $100
    - qup 3y ago
      Maybe the people are just too lazy to maintenance their vehicles. I'm going to be honest, I know maybe 500 people that I see regularly and know by name, and I bet about 9 of them have ever changed or thought about changing their transmission fluid. I know ~6 mechanics.
    - argiopetech 3y ago
      That's because you drive a nice, sensible car. Volkswagen (particularly diesel) timing belts are a royal pain and run closer to $1500 at a dealer. More if you do the water pump while you're in there (and it's typically the reason you're doing the job in the first place).
jacurtis 3y ago
Whether EVs last longer is yet to be seen. The batteries are a huge flaw in their ability to last long term. Replacing the batteries are likely a $10k+ cost, meaning that as cars get older it may not be worth doing. Imagine having a car worth $8k because it is 10 years old and needing to spend $10k on it to update the batteries. Would it make sense? Or would you just buy a car worth $18k instead? People willing to drop that on a "repair" would probably rather buy upmarket instead. Which leaves a lot of older EVs driving around with potentially really poor ranges and clogging up charger networks. We will have to see how it plays out. But they are lower maintenance.
- gnicholas 3y ago
  I imagine people will use cars with lower range as second vehicles. You’re not going to take it on a road trip, but it’s still good enough for driving around town.
- bryanlarsen 3y ago
  There are now Tesla's driving around with 300,000 miles on their original battery. You should be fairly confident of getting 200,000 miles out of a Tesla battery, which is about as much as you can expect from any car. You can hope for more, but you can't expect more. If you are really concerned about battery life, get a vehicle with an LFP battery. Those are estimated to have a 750,000 mile life.
  - theturtletalks 3y ago
    That’s not exactly a fair comparison. My car can have 200K miles, but when I fill it up, I still get the same mileage. A worn down battery loses capacity with each charge and I’d be curious to see the milage per charge past a certain amount of cycles.
    - bryanlarsen 3y ago
      > but when I fill it up, I still get the same mileage. Really? I've never seen a 200,000 mile car with the same power or mileage as a brand new car -- the tolerances are not as tight. The loss might not be as dramatic as seen on a battery, but it's usually >5%.

op00to 3y ago

Why would EVs last longer?

gnicholas 3y ago
People would keep them longer if they don't have to do fairly expensive preventative maintenance on belts, transmission, etc. There is of course the battery to worry about, and it remains to be seen how this will play out over decades.
- Grazester 3y ago
  Expensive maintenance in belts and transmissions? As in changing a belt and fluid? That should cost $300 tops for both. One done every 100k miles the other 50-100(Toyota recommends changing the fluid at that 90k intervals but it's preventative for me). Depending on the car(my Toyota) you can do both yourself on a Saturday evening for about $100
  - qup 3y ago
    Maybe the people are just too lazy to maintenance their vehicles. I'm going to be honest, I know maybe 500 people that I see regularly and know by name, and I bet about 9 of them have ever changed or thought about changing their transmission fluid. I know ~6 mechanics.
  - argiopetech 3y ago
    That's because you drive a nice, sensible car. Volkswagen (particularly diesel) timing belts are a royal pain and run closer to $1500 at a dealer. More if you do the water pump while you're in there (and it's typically the reason you're doing the job in the first place).

jacurtis 3y ago

Whether EVs last longer is yet to be seen. The batteries are a huge flaw in their ability to last long term. Replacing the batteries are likely a $10k+ cost, meaning that as cars get older it may not be worth doing. Imagine having a car worth $8k because it is 10 years old and needing to spend $10k on it to update the batteries. Would it make sense? Or would you just buy a car worth $18k instead? People willing to drop that on a "repair" would probably rather buy upmarket instead. Which leaves a lot of older EVs driving around with potentially really poor ranges and clogging up charger networks. We will have to see how it plays out. But they are lower maintenance.

gnicholas 3y ago
I imagine people will use cars with lower range as second vehicles. You’re not going to take it on a road trip, but it’s still good enough for driving around town.
bryanlarsen 3y ago
There are now Tesla's driving around with 300,000 miles on their original battery. You should be fairly confident of getting 200,000 miles out of a Tesla battery, which is about as much as you can expect from any car. You can hope for more, but you can't expect more. If you are really concerned about battery life, get a vehicle with an LFP battery. Those are estimated to have a 750,000 mile life.
- theturtletalks 3y ago
  That’s not exactly a fair comparison. My car can have 200K miles, but when I fill it up, I still get the same mileage. A worn down battery loses capacity with each charge and I’d be curious to see the milage per charge past a certain amount of cycles.
  - bryanlarsen 3y ago
    > but when I fill it up, I still get the same mileage. Really? I've never seen a 200,000 mile car with the same power or mileage as a brand new car -- the tolerances are not as tight. The loss might not be as dramatic as seen on a battery, but it's usually >5%.