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>> Historian Geoffrey Roberts recently wrote: “Could war have been prevented by a Russian-Western deal that halted NATO expansion and neutralised Ukraine in ret

by ethbr0 3y ago

>> Historian Geoffrey Roberts recently wrote: “Could war have been prevented by a Russian-Western deal that halted NATO expansion and neutralised Ukraine in return for solid guarantees of Ukrainian independence and sovereignty? Quite possibly.” Neither the US nor Russia trust each other enough to make neutrality guarantees. And Europe wasn't militarily aggressive and strong enough to vouchsafe it either. And it still would have left the "ethnic Russians and non-Russians in Ukraine" problem unresolved. Historically, "neutral country between superpowers + casus belli" hasn't ended well.

miles 3y ago
> "Could war have been prevented by a Russian-Western deal that halted NATO expansion and neutralised Ukraine in return for solid guarantees of Ukrainian independence and sovereignty? Quite possibly." Such guarantees have already failed spectacularly: Ukraine Gave Up a Giant Nuclear Arsenal 30 Years Ago. Today There Are Regrets.: "When the Soviet Union collapsed, Ukraine turned over thousands of atomic weapons in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, the United States and other countries."[1] Lesson From Ukraine: Breaking Promises to Small Countries Means They’ll Never Give Up Nukes: "In the 1990s, world powers promised Ukraine that if it disarmed, they would not violate its security. That promise was broken."[2] Yes, Russia promised in 1994 to never attack Ukraine if it gave up its nuclear weapons: "Ukraine, Russia, the U.S. and the UK signed a 1994 treaty that assured Ukraine it would be safe from attack as long as it gave up its massive stockpile of nukes."[3] [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/05/science/ukraine-nuclear-weapons.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/05/science/ukraine-nuclear-w... [2] https://theintercept.com/2022/02/27/ukraine-nuclear-weapons-russia-invasion/ https://theintercept.com/2022/02/27/ukraine-nuclear-weapons-... [3] https://www.verifythis.com/article/news/verify/global-conflicts/ukraine-agreed-to-give-up-nukes-in-exchange-for-safety-from-russia-invasion-attack-budapest-memorandum-treaty/536-8748a51f-10ee-47f0-be30-b4088750ee44 https://www.verifythis.com/article/news/verify/global-confli...

by ethbr0 3y ago

miles 3y ago

> "Could war have been prevented by a Russian-Western deal that halted NATO expansion and neutralised Ukraine in return for solid guarantees of Ukrainian independence and sovereignty? Quite possibly." Such guarantees have already failed spectacularly: Ukraine Gave Up a Giant Nuclear Arsenal 30 Years Ago. Today There Are Regrets.: "When the Soviet Union collapsed, Ukraine turned over thousands of atomic weapons in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, the United States and other countries."[1] Lesson From Ukraine: Breaking Promises to Small Countries Means They’ll Never Give Up Nukes: "In the 1990s, world powers promised Ukraine that if it disarmed, they would not violate its security. That promise was broken."[2] Yes, Russia promised in 1994 to never attack Ukraine if it gave up its nuclear weapons: "Ukraine, Russia, the U.S. and the UK signed a 1994 treaty that assured Ukraine it would be safe from attack as long as it gave up its massive stockpile of nukes."[3] [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/05/science/ukraine-nuclear-weapons.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/05/science/ukraine-nuclear-w... [2] https://theintercept.com/2022/02/27/ukraine-nuclear-weapons-russia-invasion/ https://theintercept.com/2022/02/27/ukraine-nuclear-weapons-... [3] https://www.verifythis.com/article/news/verify/global-conflicts/ukraine-agreed-to-give-up-nukes-in-exchange-for-safety-from-russia-invasion-attack-budapest-memorandum-treaty/536-8748a51f-10ee-47f0-be30-b4088750ee44 https://www.verifythis.com/article/news/verify/global-confli...