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Source? Growth rates in China have slowed significantly in the past two years, and demographic collapse is going to render their economy stagnant in the coming

by boc 3y ago

Source? Growth rates in China have slowed significantly in the past two years, and demographic collapse is going to render their economy stagnant in the coming decades. Some analysts are reversing their expectation that China will ever pass the US. [1] [1] https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/China-s-GDP-unlikely-to-surpass-U.S.-in-next-few-decades-JCER https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/China-s-GDP-unlikely-to-surp...

DiogenesKynikos 3y ago
China's PPP GDP (which is a more accurate measure of the total size of an economy) is already somewhat larger than that of the US. Slower growth still means about 5% GDP growth per year, which is much higher than growth in developed economies. The "demographic collapse" is a gradual decline in population over many decades, offset by vastly improved education among the younger generation entering the workforce. Just to give you an illustrative example, if three workers with 8 years of schooling retire from the workforce, and two workers with college degrees enter the workforce, is that a demographic collapse?
- DaiPlusPlus 3y ago
  > Just to give you an illustrative example, if three workers with 8 years of schooling retire from the workforce, and two workers with college degrees enter the workforce, is that a demographic collapse? Yes, because, unfortunately, every economy depends on having workers willing to do occupations that don’t depend on high-level qualifications. As China’s population ages while the pool of young workers without career aspirations shrinks, where are they going to find all the medical care-assistants, agricultural workers, and things like that? Other countries such as in the Middle East the “solution” was to import labour from India and SE Asia - I don’t believe that approach will work for China at all.
  - DiogenesKynikos 3y ago
    The idea that a more educated workforce is a drag on the economy is new to me. Color me skeptical.
    - DaiPlusPlus 3y ago
      I’d phrase it more as an example of unintentional consequences.
goodSteveramos 3y ago
Why would he need a source for something you acknowledge has been the expert consensus for years? Its possible that consensus is wrong but your flat out objection is out of place.

by boc 3y ago

DiogenesKynikos 3y ago

China's PPP GDP (which is a more accurate measure of the total size of an economy) is already somewhat larger than that of the US. Slower growth still means about 5% GDP growth per year, which is much higher than growth in developed economies. The "demographic collapse" is a gradual decline in population over many decades, offset by vastly improved education among the younger generation entering the workforce. Just to give you an illustrative example, if three workers with 8 years of schooling retire from the workforce, and two workers with college degrees enter the workforce, is that a demographic collapse?

DaiPlusPlus 3y ago
> Just to give you an illustrative example, if three workers with 8 years of schooling retire from the workforce, and two workers with college degrees enter the workforce, is that a demographic collapse? Yes, because, unfortunately, every economy depends on having workers willing to do occupations that don’t depend on high-level qualifications. As China’s population ages while the pool of young workers without career aspirations shrinks, where are they going to find all the medical care-assistants, agricultural workers, and things like that? Other countries such as in the Middle East the “solution” was to import labour from India and SE Asia - I don’t believe that approach will work for China at all.
- DiogenesKynikos 3y ago
  The idea that a more educated workforce is a drag on the economy is new to me. Color me skeptical.
  - DaiPlusPlus 3y ago
    I’d phrase it more as an example of unintentional consequences.

goodSteveramos 3y ago

Why would he need a source for something you acknowledge has been the expert consensus for years? Its possible that consensus is wrong but your flat out objection is out of place.