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> Besides having the biggest economy, they can print more of the world's reserve currency. Both those things will soon become false - US economy will be eclips
by Detrytus 3y ago
> Besides having the biggest economy, they can print more of the world's reserve currency.
Both those things will soon become false - US economy will be eclipsed by China, and the process of de-dollarisation of world's reserves is accelerating. The fact that the US can print as many dollars as they want is one of the reasons for it.
- boc 3y agoSource? Growth rates in China have slowed significantly in the past two years, and demographic collapse is going to render their economy stagnant in the coming decades. Some analysts are reversing their expectation that China will ever pass the US. [1] [1] https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/China-s-GDP-unlikely-to-surpass-U.S.-in-next-few-decades-JCER https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/China-s-GDP-unlikely-to-surp...
- DiogenesKynikos 3y agoChina's PPP GDP (which is a more accurate measure of the total size of an economy) is already somewhat larger than that of the US. Slower growth still means about 5% GDP growth per year, which is much higher than growth in developed economies. The "demographic collapse" is a gradual decline in population over many decades, offset by vastly improved education among the younger generation entering the workforce. Just to give you an illustrative example, if three workers with 8 years of schooling retire from the workforce, and two workers with college degrees enter the workforce, is that a demographic collapse?
- DaiPlusPlus 3y ago> Just to give you an illustrative example, if three workers with 8 years of schooling retire from the workforce, and two workers with college degrees enter the workforce, is that a demographic collapse? Yes, because, unfortunately, every economy depends on having workers willing to do occupations that don’t depend on high-level qualifications. As China’s population ages while the pool of young workers without career aspirations shrinks, where are they going to find all the medical care-assistants, agricultural workers, and things like that? Other countries such as in the Middle East the “solution” was to import labour from India and SE Asia - I don’t believe that approach will work for China at all.
- DiogenesKynikos 3y agoThe idea that a more educated workforce is a drag on the economy is new to me. Color me skeptical.
- DaiPlusPlus 3y agoI’d phrase it more as an example of unintentional consequences.
- goodSteveramos 3y agoWhy would he need a source for something you acknowledge has been the expert consensus for years? Its possible that consensus is wrong but your flat out objection is out of place.
- rayiner 3y agoWe'll also soon be eclipsed on the technological front. Losing our leading position in semiconductor manufacturing is, I suspect, the first in what will become a pattern. And once we lose economic prominence, military superiority will quickly follow. In 1939, the U.S. Army was the 39th largest in the world, and the country produced just 3,000 military aircraft. In the next five years, the U.S. produced 300,000 aircraft: https://www.pbs.org/kenburns/the-war/war-production https://www.pbs.org/kenburns/the-war/war-production.
- JamesBarney 3y agoWho is going to eclipse us on the technological front?
- DaiPlusPlus 3y agoHonestly it’s confusing to me that India, not China, hasn’t overtaken the world in CS/SE/AI - considering the sheer size of their workforce and their (relative to China) uncensored Internet access.
- i2cmaster 3y agoDifferent peoples do different things.
- infamouscow 3y agoI think the argument is pretty weak when you lay all the cards on the table. China's economy was projected to overtake and eventually eclipse the economy of the USA. China is currently staring down an existential population collapse. China's also a net importer of both energy and food. Pointing to BRICS nations dropping the USD for trade demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of what BRICS is.