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The main problem with a falling birthrate is not a shrinking population but instead an aging one. No matter the details of the implementation (pensions vs savin

by dmm 3y ago

The main problem with a falling birthrate is not a shrinking population but instead an aging one. No matter the details of the implementation (pensions vs savings) the working support the non-working, retired people. A falling birthrate means the proportion of non-working people increases forever, until it's completely unsustainable. People always seem to bring up the same interventions to stabilize this, like free childcare and tax incentives. These might be good ideas but they have been tried and haven't made a difference. Personally I think more radical reforms to modern life will be required, like no one is allowed to work full-time until >40 and mothers of >2 get a special hat that lets them skip lines at theme parks or something.

reducesuffering 3y ago
>no one is allowed to work full-time until >40 Your solution to a collapse in the supply of labor, is to further restrict the supply of labor?
- dmm 3y ago
  It's mostly a crazy idea to try and shift discussions away from the things that we know won't work. If we continue to squeeze young people they are going to continue making the same decisions. You can only eat the seed grain for so long before there's nothing to plant.
  - reducesuffering 3y ago
    Bans are silly. Before, societies didn't have social safety nets. Having kids and families was your safety net. If we have transitioned society to expect the state to provide safety nets through a system of taxes and disbursements, then we also need to account for the externalities of children in that system. That mostly looks like compensating parents and especially women for the societal benefits of having children in a market accounting for externalities.
Tozen 3y ago
Other countries have this issue, but they offset it with strong immigration and foreign workers, to include a clear and easy path to citizenship or permanent residence. The problem with Japan (and a few other countries), is there are extremely high levels of racist and nationalistic ideology (even towards other Asians) over "purity", which aren't often openly discussed for trade and public relations. These kinds of attitudes often devolve into policies that aren't going to help the tax base. It also exacerbates the problem, as more "foreigners" discover they aren't really welcomed nor will be accepted. So, Japan will remain "pure", as its population steadily and rapidly decreases. It's arguably a Japan problem, if they want to dwindle into irrelevancy (and some are content to do exactly that), while entertaining and indulging in various prejudices and discrimination.

by dmm 3y ago

reducesuffering 3y ago

>no one is allowed to work full-time until >40 Your solution to a collapse in the supply of labor, is to further restrict the supply of labor?

dmm 3y ago
It's mostly a crazy idea to try and shift discussions away from the things that we know won't work. If we continue to squeeze young people they are going to continue making the same decisions. You can only eat the seed grain for so long before there's nothing to plant.
- reducesuffering 3y ago
  Bans are silly. Before, societies didn't have social safety nets. Having kids and families was your safety net. If we have transitioned society to expect the state to provide safety nets through a system of taxes and disbursements, then we also need to account for the externalities of children in that system. That mostly looks like compensating parents and especially women for the societal benefits of having children in a market accounting for externalities.

Tozen 3y ago

Other countries have this issue, but they offset it with strong immigration and foreign workers, to include a clear and easy path to citizenship or permanent residence. The problem with Japan (and a few other countries), is there are extremely high levels of racist and nationalistic ideology (even towards other Asians) over "purity", which aren't often openly discussed for trade and public relations. These kinds of attitudes often devolve into policies that aren't going to help the tax base. It also exacerbates the problem, as more "foreigners" discover they aren't really welcomed nor will be accepted. So, Japan will remain "pure", as its population steadily and rapidly decreases. It's arguably a Japan problem, if they want to dwindle into irrelevancy (and some are content to do exactly that), while entertaining and indulging in various prejudices and discrimination.