2 ms·

I'm not so sure that Putin is able to have Prigozhin eliminated any more. The man has thousands of troops that are clearly loyal to him rather than Russia, and

I'm not so sure that Putin is able to have Prigozhin eliminated any more. The man has thousands of troops that are clearly loyal to him rather than Russia, and the regular Russian army does not seem to be able to perform at the same level as Wagner (even if you subtract all of Prigozhin's puffery, it still looks like regular Russian MoD underperforms compared to Wagner). Supposedly Wagner troops are showing up in Sudan the last few weeks. I think Prigozhin is not intending to go back to Russia, until he can go with a few thousand troops (like Julius Caesar crossing the Rubicon). He probably expects to leave Ukraine before Russia loses, then come back to Russia (with thousands of battle-tested troops) in the ensuing chaos. Putin may or may not see what he's up to. He might have been hoping to exhaust Wagner's troops in Bakhmut precisely to prevent this from happening. Regardless, I don't think Putin wants to reprimand if he can't enforce it, and right now with Prigozhin surrounded by his own troops, I don't think Putin can enforce it. Even less so once Prigozhin is in Sudan. Plus, a lot of the regular army (e.g. Surovikin) are rumored to like Prigozhin better than Putin. If forced to choose between them, I don't think at this point that Putin can count on them choosing him.

0zemp2c 3y ago
Wagner are mercenaries...who is paying them to invade Russia? Putin is using them as a battering ram, and is presumably not bothered by leaving their corpses in a burn pit to preserve the Russian Army Putin is not too different than Stalin...the penal units Stalin forced to walk into German minefields had a 90% loss rate...but they weren't regular Red Army so who cares?
- ceejayoz 3y ago
  > Wagner are mercenaries...who is paying them to invade Russia? Looting and the allure of being on top of the pyramid after?
  - 0zemp2c 3y ago
    unlikely...they are still Russian nationals and Putin can take action against their families if they try to grow brains (another tactic borrowed from Stalin) in any case they wouldn't get far...who is supplying them with ammo and fuel on the road to Moscow? the US? Putin would empty the silos
    - ceejayoz 3y ago
      > they are still Russian nationals This is the case for most revolutions. They’re invasions otherwise. > who is supplying them with ammo and fuel on the road to Moscow? Again, revolutionaries tend to manage this. Often seizing stuff along the way.
    - dragonwriter 3y ago
      > in any case they wouldn't get far...who is supplying them with ammo and fuel on the road to Moscow? Their existing stocks until they capture Russian state stocks on the way (either by force, or by corruption—money works on corrupt quartermasters, and Prigozhin has a lot), or by turning local troops and the supplies they control to the cause. But, yeah, outside anti-Putin governments aren’t impossible sponsors, especially if he has some early success. Enemy of my enemy can go a long way to making strange bedfellows.
deleted 3y ago
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0zemp2c 3y ago

Wagner are mercenaries...who is paying them to invade Russia? Putin is using them as a battering ram, and is presumably not bothered by leaving their corpses in a burn pit to preserve the Russian Army Putin is not too different than Stalin...the penal units Stalin forced to walk into German minefields had a 90% loss rate...but they weren't regular Red Army so who cares?

ceejayoz 3y ago
> Wagner are mercenaries...who is paying them to invade Russia? Looting and the allure of being on top of the pyramid after?
- 0zemp2c 3y ago
  unlikely...they are still Russian nationals and Putin can take action against their families if they try to grow brains (another tactic borrowed from Stalin) in any case they wouldn't get far...who is supplying them with ammo and fuel on the road to Moscow? the US? Putin would empty the silos
  - ceejayoz 3y ago
    > they are still Russian nationals This is the case for most revolutions. They’re invasions otherwise. > who is supplying them with ammo and fuel on the road to Moscow? Again, revolutionaries tend to manage this. Often seizing stuff along the way.
  - dragonwriter 3y ago
    > in any case they wouldn't get far...who is supplying them with ammo and fuel on the road to Moscow? Their existing stocks until they capture Russian state stocks on the way (either by force, or by corruption—money works on corrupt quartermasters, and Prigozhin has a lot), or by turning local troops and the supplies they control to the cause. But, yeah, outside anti-Putin governments aren’t impossible sponsors, especially if he has some early success. Enemy of my enemy can go a long way to making strange bedfellows.

deleted 3y ago

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