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As a recently retired military officer I'm very suspicious of his recent outbursts. To the general global public it's absolutely believable because many want to

As a recently retired military officer I'm very suspicious of his recent outbursts. To the general global public it's absolutely believable because many want to believe it, especially in the media. I want to believe it as well but my military instincts kick in because this is exactly what I would do if I was Putin. Create a "woe as me" narrative. Look everyone at all the disfunction in my operations. It's horrible I tell ya, horrible! Putin will never win in the media but he can sabotage it with stories of weakness like this. Why hasn't Putin Reprimanded him yet or had him eliminated? He could easily have done it already. I don't know if this is the case but in a war where you can't win in the media it would be a smart move. One of the smartest.

ceejayoz 3y ago
> Why hasn't Putin Reprimanded him yet or had him eliminated? Might fear an attempt to do so would be the thing that set off said revolution.
- babelthuap 3y ago
  It's just my theory as a retired combat officer. I could be 100% wrong but this is 100% what I would do in Putin's situation. I watched the videos of the outbursts and it's on the outrageous side. It seemed silly to me to be honest. One thing is for sure; we will find out the truth together.
rossdavidh 3y ago
I'm not so sure that Putin is able to have Prigozhin eliminated any more. The man has thousands of troops that are clearly loyal to him rather than Russia, and the regular Russian army does not seem to be able to perform at the same level as Wagner (even if you subtract all of Prigozhin's puffery, it still looks like regular Russian MoD underperforms compared to Wagner). Supposedly Wagner troops are showing up in Sudan the last few weeks. I think Prigozhin is not intending to go back to Russia, until he can go with a few thousand troops (like Julius Caesar crossing the Rubicon). He probably expects to leave Ukraine before Russia loses, then come back to Russia (with thousands of battle-tested troops) in the ensuing chaos. Putin may or may not see what he's up to. He might have been hoping to exhaust Wagner's troops in Bakhmut precisely to prevent this from happening. Regardless, I don't think Putin wants to reprimand if he can't enforce it, and right now with Prigozhin surrounded by his own troops, I don't think Putin can enforce it. Even less so once Prigozhin is in Sudan. Plus, a lot of the regular army (e.g. Surovikin) are rumored to like Prigozhin better than Putin. If forced to choose between them, I don't think at this point that Putin can count on them choosing him.
- 0zemp2c 3y ago
  Wagner are mercenaries...who is paying them to invade Russia? Putin is using them as a battering ram, and is presumably not bothered by leaving their corpses in a burn pit to preserve the Russian Army Putin is not too different than Stalin...the penal units Stalin forced to walk into German minefields had a 90% loss rate...but they weren't regular Red Army so who cares?
  - ceejayoz 3y ago
    > Wagner are mercenaries...who is paying them to invade Russia? Looting and the allure of being on top of the pyramid after?
    - 0zemp2c 3y ago
      unlikely...they are still Russian nationals and Putin can take action against their families if they try to grow brains (another tactic borrowed from Stalin) in any case they wouldn't get far...who is supplying them with ammo and fuel on the road to Moscow? the US? Putin would empty the silos
      - ceejayoz 3y ago
        > they are still Russian nationals This is the case for most revolutions. They’re invasions otherwise. > who is supplying them with ammo and fuel on the road to Moscow? Again, revolutionaries tend to manage this. Often seizing stuff along the way.
      - dragonwriter 3y ago
        > in any case they wouldn't get far...who is supplying them with ammo and fuel on the road to Moscow? Their existing stocks until they capture Russian state stocks on the way (either by force, or by corruption—money works on corrupt quartermasters, and Prigozhin has a lot), or by turning local troops and the supplies they control to the cause. But, yeah, outside anti-Putin governments aren’t impossible sponsors, especially if he has some early success. Enemy of my enemy can go a long way to making strange bedfellows.
dragonwriter 3y ago
> Why hasn't Putin Reprimanded him yet or had him eliminated? Prigozhin may be an important tool in the common authoritarian tactic of avoiding any single subordinate from having a dominant powerbase, which would explain tolerating (or even encouraging, subtly) the apparent factional divide between Prigozhin and Shoigu.
jschveibinz 3y ago
I agree with your analysis. It hardly matters what the general public in the West thinks about the situation in Russia anyway—this is just a weak PR trick in the hopes that it reduces aid to Ukraine—which is not likely to happen. Those poor Russian people. They deserve better.
deleted 3y ago
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baybal2 3y ago
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ceejayoz 3y ago

> Why hasn't Putin Reprimanded him yet or had him eliminated? Might fear an attempt to do so would be the thing that set off said revolution.

babelthuap 3y ago
It's just my theory as a retired combat officer. I could be 100% wrong but this is 100% what I would do in Putin's situation. I watched the videos of the outbursts and it's on the outrageous side. It seemed silly to me to be honest. One thing is for sure; we will find out the truth together.

rossdavidh 3y ago

I'm not so sure that Putin is able to have Prigozhin eliminated any more. The man has thousands of troops that are clearly loyal to him rather than Russia, and the regular Russian army does not seem to be able to perform at the same level as Wagner (even if you subtract all of Prigozhin's puffery, it still looks like regular Russian MoD underperforms compared to Wagner). Supposedly Wagner troops are showing up in Sudan the last few weeks. I think Prigozhin is not intending to go back to Russia, until he can go with a few thousand troops (like Julius Caesar crossing the Rubicon). He probably expects to leave Ukraine before Russia loses, then come back to Russia (with thousands of battle-tested troops) in the ensuing chaos. Putin may or may not see what he's up to. He might have been hoping to exhaust Wagner's troops in Bakhmut precisely to prevent this from happening. Regardless, I don't think Putin wants to reprimand if he can't enforce it, and right now with Prigozhin surrounded by his own troops, I don't think Putin can enforce it. Even less so once Prigozhin is in Sudan. Plus, a lot of the regular army (e.g. Surovikin) are rumored to like Prigozhin better than Putin. If forced to choose between them, I don't think at this point that Putin can count on them choosing him.

0zemp2c 3y ago
Wagner are mercenaries...who is paying them to invade Russia? Putin is using them as a battering ram, and is presumably not bothered by leaving their corpses in a burn pit to preserve the Russian Army Putin is not too different than Stalin...the penal units Stalin forced to walk into German minefields had a 90% loss rate...but they weren't regular Red Army so who cares?
- ceejayoz 3y ago
  > Wagner are mercenaries...who is paying them to invade Russia? Looting and the allure of being on top of the pyramid after?
  - 0zemp2c 3y ago
    unlikely...they are still Russian nationals and Putin can take action against their families if they try to grow brains (another tactic borrowed from Stalin) in any case they wouldn't get far...who is supplying them with ammo and fuel on the road to Moscow? the US? Putin would empty the silos
    - ceejayoz 3y ago
      > they are still Russian nationals This is the case for most revolutions. They’re invasions otherwise. > who is supplying them with ammo and fuel on the road to Moscow? Again, revolutionaries tend to manage this. Often seizing stuff along the way.
    - dragonwriter 3y ago
      > in any case they wouldn't get far...who is supplying them with ammo and fuel on the road to Moscow? Their existing stocks until they capture Russian state stocks on the way (either by force, or by corruption—money works on corrupt quartermasters, and Prigozhin has a lot), or by turning local troops and the supplies they control to the cause. But, yeah, outside anti-Putin governments aren’t impossible sponsors, especially if he has some early success. Enemy of my enemy can go a long way to making strange bedfellows.

dragonwriter 3y ago

> Why hasn't Putin Reprimanded him yet or had him eliminated? Prigozhin may be an important tool in the common authoritarian tactic of avoiding any single subordinate from having a dominant powerbase, which would explain tolerating (or even encouraging, subtly) the apparent factional divide between Prigozhin and Shoigu.

jschveibinz 3y ago

I agree with your analysis. It hardly matters what the general public in the West thinks about the situation in Russia anyway—this is just a weak PR trick in the hopes that it reduces aid to Ukraine—which is not likely to happen. Those poor Russian people. They deserve better.

deleted 3y ago

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baybal2 3y ago

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