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Kinzhal is an air-launched ballistic missile. It's roughly an Iskander dropped from a plane rather than fired from a truck: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kh-47M

by twic 3y ago

Kinzhal is an air-launched ballistic missile. It's roughly an Iskander dropped from a plane rather than fired from a truck: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kh-47M2_Kinzhal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kh-47M2_Kinzhal It is hypersonic, but it follows a very predictable high-altitude trajectory, so it's the easiest kind of hypersonic missile to intercept. I read a good thread about the various kinds of hypersonics a while ago, but can't find it now. Broadly, there are three classes: hypersonic cruise missiles (like Tomahawk but much faster), hypersonic glide vehicles (basically ballistic missile warheads with wings), and classical ballistic missiles. It's the former two which are new and scary. This touches on it, but is rather one-sided: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2023/05/23/ukraine-and-the-kinzhal-dont-believe-the-hypersonic-hype/ https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2023/05/23/u...

JumpCrisscross 3y ago
It was unveiled in 2018 by Putin alongside the Zircon anti-ship and Avangard glide vehicle [1]. Within the context of Russian hypersonic ballistic missiles, Kinzhal is the flagship. You're absolutely correct, by the way. And that's the author's point. (Which I've been partial towards for a long time.) Hypersonic missiles are not the game changer they're claimed to be, and to the degree they open new tactical ground, the United States is well set to at the very least match adversaries' capabilities. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_%27super_weapons%27 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_%27super_weapons%27
- int_19h 3y ago
  The thing with Kinzhal is that it is not maneuvering, but the Russian agitprop muddies the waters by focusing on the "hypersonic" part. However, as the article points out, an actual maneuvering hypersonic missile - which is something that all major players are working on - is indeed a major threat. It's just unlikely that Russia would have that any time soon, given the overall state of their technological development demonstrated during the war so far.
  - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
    > an actual maneuvering hypersonic missile - which is something that all major players are working on - is indeed a major threat I've heard Avangard lacks propulsive glide. That means it's ballistic in space, and only maneuverable (at the expense of range and speed) at the terminal phase. This is solvable because it's old tech–basically MIRVs.
    - dragonwriter 3y ago
      Close to MARVs, but with presumably greater maneuvering capacity (the “glide” description suggests this) which necessarily trades speed to exploit.
dist-epoch 3y ago
There is a 4th kind of hypersonic missile: Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS) > rocket launched into orbital flight, which later re-entered the atmosphere and released a maneuverable glide vehicle travelling at hypersonic speeds https://www.apln.network/analysis/policy-briefs/chinese-fractional-orbital-bombardment https://www.apln.network/analysis/policy-briefs/chinese-frac...
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  I'm still failing to see the difference between this and MIRVs. (But with fins!)
  - George83728 3y ago
    FOBS has a much lower apogee for the same range, meaning it stays below the horizon longer (giving less time to intercept it.) https://stateofthenation.co/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/FOBS-OrbitDiagram.jpg https://stateofthenation.co/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/FOBS-... Furthermore, it can in principle come from any direction, which was relevant historically when it was expected that Soviet ICBMs would come over the North Pole.
- dragonwriter 3y ago
  If they are actually glide vehicles these are exactly the hypersonic glide weapons discussed above, if thy “glide” part is an exaggeration, they are just classic ballistic missiles with maneuverable attack vehicles (MARVs), which are widely used, they aren’t, in any case, outside of the three categories presented.
  - dist-epoch 3y ago
    The glide part would be in the three categories above, but not the whole system, which has extra capabilities (unlimited loitering time for example).
dragonwriter 3y ago
Its perhaps worth noting that literal hypersonic “ballistic missile warheads with wings” were developed by the US for ICBMs in the 1970s, and are deployed by many countries on ICBMs or MRBMs (ironically, not the US, whose last MARV-capable missiles were the Pershing II, retired in 1991.) I think the deal with the Avengard (and the US C-HGB as used on the soon-to-be-deployed LRHW) is bigger wings / lifting body giving it greater maneuvering capacity through a flatter flight phase trading more of its speed for lateral displacement than earlier maneuverable ballistic missile warheads.

by twic 3y ago

JumpCrisscross 3y ago

It was unveiled in 2018 by Putin alongside the Zircon anti-ship and Avangard glide vehicle [1]. Within the context of Russian hypersonic ballistic missiles, Kinzhal is the flagship. You're absolutely correct, by the way. And that's the author's point. (Which I've been partial towards for a long time.) Hypersonic missiles are not the game changer they're claimed to be, and to the degree they open new tactical ground, the United States is well set to at the very least match adversaries' capabilities. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_%27super_weapons%27 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_%27super_weapons%27

int_19h 3y ago
The thing with Kinzhal is that it is not maneuvering, but the Russian agitprop muddies the waters by focusing on the "hypersonic" part. However, as the article points out, an actual maneuvering hypersonic missile - which is something that all major players are working on - is indeed a major threat. It's just unlikely that Russia would have that any time soon, given the overall state of their technological development demonstrated during the war so far.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  > an actual maneuvering hypersonic missile - which is something that all major players are working on - is indeed a major threat I've heard Avangard lacks propulsive glide. That means it's ballistic in space, and only maneuverable (at the expense of range and speed) at the terminal phase. This is solvable because it's old tech–basically MIRVs.
  - dragonwriter 3y ago
    Close to MARVs, but with presumably greater maneuvering capacity (the “glide” description suggests this) which necessarily trades speed to exploit.

dist-epoch 3y ago

There is a 4th kind of hypersonic missile: Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS) > rocket launched into orbital flight, which later re-entered the atmosphere and released a maneuverable glide vehicle travelling at hypersonic speeds https://www.apln.network/analysis/policy-briefs/chinese-fractional-orbital-bombardment https://www.apln.network/analysis/policy-briefs/chinese-frac...

JumpCrisscross 3y ago
I'm still failing to see the difference between this and MIRVs. (But with fins!)
- George83728 3y ago
  FOBS has a much lower apogee for the same range, meaning it stays below the horizon longer (giving less time to intercept it.) https://stateofthenation.co/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/FOBS-OrbitDiagram.jpg https://stateofthenation.co/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/FOBS-... Furthermore, it can in principle come from any direction, which was relevant historically when it was expected that Soviet ICBMs would come over the North Pole.
dragonwriter 3y ago
If they are actually glide vehicles these are exactly the hypersonic glide weapons discussed above, if thy “glide” part is an exaggeration, they are just classic ballistic missiles with maneuverable attack vehicles (MARVs), which are widely used, they aren’t, in any case, outside of the three categories presented.
- dist-epoch 3y ago
  The glide part would be in the three categories above, but not the whole system, which has extra capabilities (unlimited loitering time for example).

dragonwriter 3y ago

Its perhaps worth noting that literal hypersonic “ballistic missile warheads with wings” were developed by the US for ICBMs in the 1970s, and are deployed by many countries on ICBMs or MRBMs (ironically, not the US, whose last MARV-capable missiles were the Pershing II, retired in 1991.) I think the deal with the Avengard (and the US C-HGB as used on the soon-to-be-deployed LRHW) is bigger wings / lifting body giving it greater maneuvering capacity through a flatter flight phase trading more of its speed for lateral displacement than earlier maneuverable ballistic missile warheads.