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This makes no sense. Already trading at 50x EBITDA on forecasted datacenter demand. How does this actually pan out? AWS, Microsoft, other large internet compani

by akouri 3y ago

This makes no sense. Already trading at 50x EBITDA on forecasted datacenter demand. How does this actually pan out? AWS, Microsoft, other large internet companies buy a bunch of GPUs to train models _one time_, or at best at an annual cadence. Others rent once a month to train. Model inference will be done on the edge. Apple makes their own silicon and will never return to NVDA, so count out all iDevice revenue. Same with Tesla.

0zemp2c 3y ago
simple - this market is a bunch of sideways and capital is looking for any positive "port in a storm" all the major techs are massively overbought because its become a safety trade
Ologn 3y ago
> This makes no sense. Already trading at 50x EBITDA on forecasted datacenter demand. How does this actually pan out? AWS, Microsoft, other large internet companies buy a bunch of GPUs to train models _one time_, or at best at an annual cadence. Others rent once a month to train. OpenAI trained on Nvidia cards, but doesn't OpenAI's ChatGPT run on Nvidia cards as well? So it's not just the training, but the execution as well, right? I train Dreambooth models for Stable Diffusion, which takes up a lot of GPU time, but then I generate images with those Dreambooth models, which takes less time (but still uses my Nvidia card).
dragonwriter 3y ago
> AWS, Microsoft, other large internet companies buy a bunch of GPUs to train models _one time_, or at best at an annual cadence. And after they train a model, what are they going to do with it?
- deleted 3y ago
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x-complexity 3y ago
> This makes no sense. Already trading at 50x EBITDA on forecasted datacenter demand. How does this actually pan out? Easy: Within 20 years, we'll see the first publicly-traded company > $100B trading at 1000x EBITDA, before crashing down to 200x EBITDA. As shown in the last few years, money can be loaned out easily by the Fed & banks in times of extreme economic stress. With more crises inevitably coming up in some form or another, more loans will eventually be given out to incentivize the continued existence of the market.

by akouri 3y ago

0zemp2c 3y ago

simple - this market is a bunch of sideways and capital is looking for any positive "port in a storm" all the major techs are massively overbought because its become a safety trade

Ologn 3y ago

> This makes no sense. Already trading at 50x EBITDA on forecasted datacenter demand. How does this actually pan out? AWS, Microsoft, other large internet companies buy a bunch of GPUs to train models _one time_, or at best at an annual cadence. Others rent once a month to train. OpenAI trained on Nvidia cards, but doesn't OpenAI's ChatGPT run on Nvidia cards as well? So it's not just the training, but the execution as well, right? I train Dreambooth models for Stable Diffusion, which takes up a lot of GPU time, but then I generate images with those Dreambooth models, which takes less time (but still uses my Nvidia card).

dragonwriter 3y ago

> AWS, Microsoft, other large internet companies buy a bunch of GPUs to train models _one time_, or at best at an annual cadence. And after they train a model, what are they going to do with it?

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

x-complexity 3y ago

> This makes no sense. Already trading at 50x EBITDA on forecasted datacenter demand. How does this actually pan out? Easy: Within 20 years, we'll see the first publicly-traded company > $100B trading at 1000x EBITDA, before crashing down to 200x EBITDA. As shown in the last few years, money can be loaned out easily by the Fed & banks in times of extreme economic stress. With more crises inevitably coming up in some form or another, more loans will eventually be given out to incentivize the continued existence of the market.