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I always assumed he would end up deploying a weapons system to space. Of course he would have to pretend to be doing something else while he builds up the capab

I always assumed he would end up deploying a weapons system to space. Of course he would have to pretend to be doing something else while he builds up the capability to prevent others from becoming nervous. Something silly like colonizing Mars would work, especially if he really leans in to the eccentric billionaire trope.

MichaelZuo 3y ago
It would be impossible because even large amateur telescopes can photograph launch payload to a decent level of detail. If the appearance doesn't match a plausible civilian satellite mission then everyone will know within hours.
- cjbgkagh 3y ago
  The building of the infrastructure needs a red herring, the actual deployment need not be secret because by then it’s a done deed. Once deployed you’d want people to know, to avoid a Dr Strangelove situation. A veritable sword of Damocles.
  - MichaelZuo 3y ago
    I don't see how? An anti-satellite missile can be sent up to destroy the target within a few minutes of a decision.
    - cjbgkagh 3y ago
      That kind of brinkmanship would still be attractive to a waning hegemon. I was thinking more like 250 tones worth of mini nukes which would be pretty hard to shoot down.
      - MichaelZuo 3y ago
        That would certainly destroy the US position internationally as it would be impossible to defend surreptitiously launching '250 tons worth of mini nukes' into orbit. Especially if space was not weaponized beforehand. In fact it would very likely lead to literally every other country ganging up on the perceived villain, or at least staying on the sidelines. So I don't see why any launch provider in the US would participate in the intentional destruction of the US?
        cjbgkagh 3y ago
        Nah, people will get over it quite quickly. Before it happens people imagine that others will be all upset and do something, after it happens realpolitik kicks in and the world quickly adjusts to the new balance of power. Much of the world has a vested interest in the US staying the dominant hegemon and militarisation of space won't change that.
        MichaelZuo 3y ago
        Are you joking?
        cjbgkagh 3y ago
        No I’m not. I actually consider it a preferable outcome to the alternative which is a great powers conflict (WWIII) that would generate untold, potentially nuclear, destruction. If I found out the US did this I would breathe a sigh of relief and I’m sure I’m not the only one. So long as China thinks they have a realistic chance of dethroning the US they’ll take that chance. If the US fails to secure a Russian defeat in Ukraine that’ll only embolden China further. Ideally I’d prefer for the US to fix its own problems and retake its seat as the undisputed economic and moral arbiter of the world but I don’t think that is likely. My biggest worry is that the US believes its own missile shield hype and picks a nuclear fight that the US then loses (hint; everyone loses).
        MichaelZuo 3y ago
        Why would any other country care about the US 'being dethroned' after '250 tons worth of mini nukes' have been launched into orbit? After such an extreme violation of norms there likely won't be anyone providing support.
        cjbgkagh 3y ago
        Not sure if I understand your statement. A deployment of a new unstoppable super weapon would be an entrenchment of power not a dethronement. Norms are violated all the time to very little consequence, sure, this would be on a whole other level but what could you do… what could anyone do… and that’s the point. I think people are over optimistic about the potential for collective action. I’m not the person who needs convincing that it’s a bad idea, that decision maker, if they even exist, is in the US government somewhere.
    - PeterisP 3y ago
      If the launch capabilities are unbalanced (as they are!) then no, anti-satellite missiles aren't an option - at the moment noone can afford to launch an anti-satellite missile for every satellite that SpaceX can sustainably launch. Like, it was no problem to launch 1500+ satellites in 2022, but at the moment I don't see a credible capability for China or Russia to launch 1500+ anti-satellite missiles per year.
  - jdougan 3y ago
    You'd think that....but then there is Deadhand/Perimeter...
- ta988 3y ago
  Oh yeah? do we have pictures of all the private and defense satellites that were launched?
  - IntrepidWorm 3y ago
    Certainly not, but one wouldn't need to catch every satellite launch for space weapon- one or two would be enough evidence to go public and warrant further scrutiny. There are a number of extremely savvy amateur astronomers across the world that track suspected military launches and publish their findings: https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com
    - ta988 3y ago
      That's a fun website thanks

MichaelZuo 3y ago

It would be impossible because even large amateur telescopes can photograph launch payload to a decent level of detail. If the appearance doesn't match a plausible civilian satellite mission then everyone will know within hours.

cjbgkagh 3y ago
The building of the infrastructure needs a red herring, the actual deployment need not be secret because by then it’s a done deed. Once deployed you’d want people to know, to avoid a Dr Strangelove situation. A veritable sword of Damocles.
- MichaelZuo 3y ago
  I don't see how? An anti-satellite missile can be sent up to destroy the target within a few minutes of a decision.
  - cjbgkagh 3y ago
    That kind of brinkmanship would still be attractive to a waning hegemon. I was thinking more like 250 tones worth of mini nukes which would be pretty hard to shoot down.
    - MichaelZuo 3y ago
      That would certainly destroy the US position internationally as it would be impossible to defend surreptitiously launching '250 tons worth of mini nukes' into orbit. Especially if space was not weaponized beforehand. In fact it would very likely lead to literally every other country ganging up on the perceived villain, or at least staying on the sidelines. So I don't see why any launch provider in the US would participate in the intentional destruction of the US?
      - cjbgkagh 3y ago
        Nah, people will get over it quite quickly. Before it happens people imagine that others will be all upset and do something, after it happens realpolitik kicks in and the world quickly adjusts to the new balance of power. Much of the world has a vested interest in the US staying the dominant hegemon and militarisation of space won't change that.
        MichaelZuo 3y ago
        Are you joking?
        cjbgkagh 3y ago
        No I’m not. I actually consider it a preferable outcome to the alternative which is a great powers conflict (WWIII) that would generate untold, potentially nuclear, destruction. If I found out the US did this I would breathe a sigh of relief and I’m sure I’m not the only one. So long as China thinks they have a realistic chance of dethroning the US they’ll take that chance. If the US fails to secure a Russian defeat in Ukraine that’ll only embolden China further. Ideally I’d prefer for the US to fix its own problems and retake its seat as the undisputed economic and moral arbiter of the world but I don’t think that is likely. My biggest worry is that the US believes its own missile shield hype and picks a nuclear fight that the US then loses (hint; everyone loses).
        MichaelZuo 3y ago
        Why would any other country care about the US 'being dethroned' after '250 tons worth of mini nukes' have been launched into orbit? After such an extreme violation of norms there likely won't be anyone providing support.
        cjbgkagh 3y ago
        Not sure if I understand your statement. A deployment of a new unstoppable super weapon would be an entrenchment of power not a dethronement. Norms are violated all the time to very little consequence, sure, this would be on a whole other level but what could you do… what could anyone do… and that’s the point. I think people are over optimistic about the potential for collective action. I’m not the person who needs convincing that it’s a bad idea, that decision maker, if they even exist, is in the US government somewhere.
  - PeterisP 3y ago
    If the launch capabilities are unbalanced (as they are!) then no, anti-satellite missiles aren't an option - at the moment noone can afford to launch an anti-satellite missile for every satellite that SpaceX can sustainably launch. Like, it was no problem to launch 1500+ satellites in 2022, but at the moment I don't see a credible capability for China or Russia to launch 1500+ anti-satellite missiles per year.
- jdougan 3y ago
  You'd think that....but then there is Deadhand/Perimeter...
ta988 3y ago
Oh yeah? do we have pictures of all the private and defense satellites that were launched?
- IntrepidWorm 3y ago
  Certainly not, but one wouldn't need to catch every satellite launch for space weapon- one or two would be enough evidence to go public and warrant further scrutiny. There are a number of extremely savvy amateur astronomers across the world that track suspected military launches and publish their findings: https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com
  - ta988 3y ago
    That's a fun website thanks