3 ms·

It's a regular yearly event these days. How soon will the record ice loss be posted this year? Did we beat it last year? Some times it feels like we're re-arra

It's a regular yearly event these days. How soon will the record ice loss be posted this year? Did we beat it last year? Some times it feels like we're re-arranging deck chairs. The US administration plans more drilling in Alaska, Russia continues to seek new natural gas and oil sources; human civilization continues on as if nothing is happening. I hope we can end all use of fossil fuels in the energy sector before 2030 but I remain doubtful. It seems like we may simply end up with no polar caps and have to survive the next few thousand years without them.

slashdev 3y ago
I wish we could end all fossil fuel use by 2050, but even that won't happen. I do think we'll be using substantially less than we are today by 2050 though, so that's something. 2030 is impossible. The ice in Antarctica won't completely melt, it's been there a very long time and it would take a very long time and a very dramatic change to cause that. If we manage to cause that we're really fucked, because the changes to everything else would be catastrophic. But Greenland could happen over the course of a millennia. That would have far reaching consequences, as it would likely disrupt the Gulf Stream (I know that's not the right name for it, but everyone knows it by that name).
- selectodude 3y ago
  What are we supposed to be calling the Gulf Stream nowadays?
  - js8 3y ago
    I believe PP means AMOC: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_meridional_overturning_circulation https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_meridional_overturn...
    - slashdev 3y ago
      Yes, that's the one.
- llsf 3y ago
  We might need to reduce our fossil fuel consumption in 2050 because it might be too expensive to use them as we might have pass the peak oil (even unconventional ones)/gas/coal by then. peak oil: More recently, the EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2015 indicated no production peak out to 2040. However, this required a future Brent crude oil price of $US144/bbl (2013 dollars) "as growing demand leads to the development of more costly resources" source: https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/presentations/sieminski_05042015.pdf https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/presentations/sieminski_050420... peak gas: "One forecast is for natural gas demand to peak in 2035." source: https://www.power-technology.com/features/energy-transition-report-dnv-gl-power-industry-energy-efficiency-peak-gas-wind-solar-renewables/ https://www.power-technology.com/features/energy-transition-... peak coal: Most main coal exporters peaked already. China is scrapping the bottom of the barrel: "In 2021, the government ordered all coal mines to operate at full capacity at all times, including holidays; approved new mines, and eliminated restrictions on coal imports." source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-takes-the-brakes-off-coal-production-to-tackle-power-shortage-11634727835 https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-takes-the-brakes-off-coal... I am getting concerned about the impact on increasingly expensive fossil fuel and climate impact on economies. The sooner countries stop to rely on fossil fuel the better, period.
TremendousJudge 3y ago
>Some times it feels like we're re-arranging deck chairs That's because we are. Action on this should feel at least as global, as desperate and as uncomfortable as what was done during the pandemic. It should have a very tangible economic impact, because the measures require a big reorganizing of the economy. Which is why nothing is being done about it.
- agentultra 3y ago
  I recall briefly holding a spark of hope that the lockdowns would convince enough of us that altering our economic system drastically was possible and that we wouldn’t all die in breadlines or something. But boy does capitalism have its chokehold on our imagination. Economists, academic and arm-chair alike, seem to think our current system is a fundamental law of the universe like thermodynamics or something. Ah well. As always it seems what we believe is more influential and important than what is real.
shkkmo 3y ago
While melting is a very high levels historically and a very real concern, your comment is hyperbole. While we do lose ice every year and do so at rate much higher than the historical average, we don't actually set a new record every year. > Melting peaked in 2019, when the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets lost a staggering 612 billion tonnes of ice. It doesn't seem like we will end up with no polar caps (at least not in our lifetimes), but they will be greatly reduced in size and lead to very significant rises in ocean level.

slashdev 3y ago

I wish we could end all fossil fuel use by 2050, but even that won't happen. I do think we'll be using substantially less than we are today by 2050 though, so that's something. 2030 is impossible. The ice in Antarctica won't completely melt, it's been there a very long time and it would take a very long time and a very dramatic change to cause that. If we manage to cause that we're really fucked, because the changes to everything else would be catastrophic. But Greenland could happen over the course of a millennia. That would have far reaching consequences, as it would likely disrupt the Gulf Stream (I know that's not the right name for it, but everyone knows it by that name).

selectodude 3y ago
What are we supposed to be calling the Gulf Stream nowadays?
- js8 3y ago
  I believe PP means AMOC: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_meridional_overturning_circulation https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_meridional_overturn...
  - slashdev 3y ago
    Yes, that's the one.
llsf 3y ago
We might need to reduce our fossil fuel consumption in 2050 because it might be too expensive to use them as we might have pass the peak oil (even unconventional ones)/gas/coal by then. peak oil: More recently, the EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2015 indicated no production peak out to 2040. However, this required a future Brent crude oil price of $US144/bbl (2013 dollars) "as growing demand leads to the development of more costly resources" source: https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/presentations/sieminski_05042015.pdf https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/presentations/sieminski_050420... peak gas: "One forecast is for natural gas demand to peak in 2035." source: https://www.power-technology.com/features/energy-transition-report-dnv-gl-power-industry-energy-efficiency-peak-gas-wind-solar-renewables/ https://www.power-technology.com/features/energy-transition-... peak coal: Most main coal exporters peaked already. China is scrapping the bottom of the barrel: "In 2021, the government ordered all coal mines to operate at full capacity at all times, including holidays; approved new mines, and eliminated restrictions on coal imports." source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-takes-the-brakes-off-coal-production-to-tackle-power-shortage-11634727835 https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-takes-the-brakes-off-coal... I am getting concerned about the impact on increasingly expensive fossil fuel and climate impact on economies. The sooner countries stop to rely on fossil fuel the better, period.

TremendousJudge 3y ago

>Some times it feels like we're re-arranging deck chairs That's because we are. Action on this should feel at least as global, as desperate and as uncomfortable as what was done during the pandemic. It should have a very tangible economic impact, because the measures require a big reorganizing of the economy. Which is why nothing is being done about it.

agentultra 3y ago
I recall briefly holding a spark of hope that the lockdowns would convince enough of us that altering our economic system drastically was possible and that we wouldn’t all die in breadlines or something. But boy does capitalism have its chokehold on our imagination. Economists, academic and arm-chair alike, seem to think our current system is a fundamental law of the universe like thermodynamics or something. Ah well. As always it seems what we believe is more influential and important than what is real.

shkkmo 3y ago

While melting is a very high levels historically and a very real concern, your comment is hyperbole. While we do lose ice every year and do so at rate much higher than the historical average, we don't actually set a new record every year. > Melting peaked in 2019, when the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets lost a staggering 612 billion tonnes of ice. It doesn't seem like we will end up with no polar caps (at least not in our lifetimes), but they will be greatly reduced in size and lead to very significant rises in ocean level.