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Andrew Chen: In a year, will Facebook be bigger? Or MySpace? Let's bet ;-)
While MySpace is over 2X larger (109MM instead of 47MM), the Facebook growth in the last month was 22% whereas MySpace's was about 4.3%. If this rate were to continue, then Facebook would pass MySpace in about 7 months.
Will Facebook overtake MySpace? How long will it likely take?
- steve 19y agoHmm, that is a tough call. http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details?site0=myspace.com&site1=facebook.com&site2=&site3=&site4=&y=r&z=3&h=300&w=610&range=3y&size=Medium&url=willitblend.com http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details?site0=mysp... I think that if myspace starts doing publicity on the level that facebook is though, they still can stay on top.
- sprice 19y agoI would take the same bet for Facebook
- staunch 19y agoThe average stay Facebook vs MySpace is what scares me. MySpace has an _insane_ average stay of almost 30 minutes. Facebook has a pretty embarrassing average stay of 13 minutes that tons of other sites beat. http://siteanalytics.compete.com/facebook.com+myspace.com?metric=avgStay http://siteanalytics.compete.com/facebook.com+myspace.com?me... One year isn't very long. I wouldn't take that bet.
- joshwa 19y agoYou know why MySpace's average stay is so much longer? It's slow, and you have to click around to every single one of your friend's pages to see if they've updated anything. Facebook simplified this operation with the news feed and their handy yellow update hilighting. Consider it "shrinking the market"...
- epi0Bauqu 19y agoThey also have different demographic centers, which each use the Internet differently.
- Tichy 19y agoWhile MySpace is very ugly, it seems to be considerably more interesting than Facebook. At least people can express their individuality on MySpace. The Facebook design, if it were black, would be suitable for funeral announcements. So my guess is that MySpace will prevail. Maybe they can't even be compared, as they do different things.
- crxnamja 19y agoi bet you like a gillion dollars. you have no idea!
- danw 19y agoI've noticed facebook always reports 'active' user numbers. Any idea how many myspace accounts are active as opposed to abandoned or spam?
- menloparkbum 19y agoYou could always just build a bot that adds 20000 MySpace accounts per day in order to ensure that MySpace stays ahead.
- staunch 19y agoYou'd have to break their CAPTCHA system first.