3 ms·
Certainty about predictions of the future has always been close to zero. If you take a person from an appropriate time and ask them what the future will look li
by amoss 3y ago
Certainty about predictions of the future has always been close to zero. If you take a person from an appropriate time and ask them what the future will look like in 1000, 100 or even 20 years then their predictions will bear little resemblence to what actually occurs.
As humans we have a tendancy to make linear future predictions based on past observations. Over the timescales that matter significant effects occur from previously unseen kinds of events that become important via interactions with other events.
The important measurement would be what the length of the event horizon - the length of time before our predictions rapidly decrease to zero certainty. In a singularity we would expect that length of time to decrease close to zero. What has it been historically? I would claim that 5-10 years is a difficult period to make meaningful predictions about. I think that 20 years has proven to be very difficult but possible in the past. I am unaware of any 100+ year predictions that have landed with better than random chance.
Interestingly I think we are entering a period where 5 years will be the upper bound, and even predictions over shorter 2-3 year timespans are going to become difficult.
- doctor_eval 3y agoI would say that we are really saying the same thing. I did intend to imply “short term predictions”. However I feel that these LLMs are not like the internet or the release of the iPhone. We’ve gone in a very short time from LLMs in the lab to ChatGPT to passing the bar exam. Considering the rate of research that’s being published and the fact that what we see today is generally at least many months behind the state of the art, I don’t feel that we can even have any certainty about the next 6 months.
- amoss 3y agoAh, I did not grasp that reading your comment - then we are saying the same thing. Yes, I think that progress has become rapid enough that we can't predict six months out. I suspect that we are only 1-2 inventions away from something quite large and transformative. Obviously LLMs have already created a lot of excitement and opened up new areas of content generation already, but I think something larger is coming.
- vlovich123 3y agoAny exponential growth in tech makes it hard for us to predict the outcome. By that metric we’ve been in that phase for some 70 years since the invention of the transistor. The world today looks nothing like the world in the 50s and the transistor is a huge part of that reason. And that is true - that was the technological singularity and we’ve been in that world ever since. When people today talk about the AI singularity though it’s a slightly different definition from the more general technological singularity which is that the AI itself is delivering that improvement with no input from humans.