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The winter was exceptionally warm, and no one could really predict that. But putting that aside, this whole episode was making me uneasy. To this day so many p

The winter was exceptionally warm, and no one could really predict that. But putting that aside, this whole episode was making me uneasy. To this day so many people in Europe cannot engage in strategic thinking. I think they simply do not believe that bombs can ever land on their own roofs. The understanding of foreign governments and their real intentions is often at a comical level, even when applied to actors that pretty much lay out their own plans in public then execute on them, decade after decade. Effective international policy requires tools, but before that it requires an even basic understanding of the situation and courage/resolve. That means sacrificing something small (like a gas shortage) for something valuable (no major war in Europe).

mperham 3y ago
From the article: Moreover, the country did not simply get lucky with particularly mild winter temperatures, as often alleged. The average winter temperature in the 2022/23 winter of 2.9°C was actually slightly colder than the average temperature over the four previous winters.
- sounds 3y ago
  It's possible to have a lower mean temperature and still use less total heat. Stats, right? E.g. if the temperature is warmer at night.
  - hrefgtd 3y ago
    [flagged]
  - nawgz 3y ago
    Unless there's some non-linear interactions that I'm unaware of, it seems like the mean temp is the only thing you'd need to know wrt how much energy you need to use to keep it roughly at some other temp thru the season
    - Retric 3y ago
      Heat loss is linear. Resistance heating is linear. Furnaces using slightly colder outside air are just a tiny bit less efficient, but it’s really close to linear. Heat pumps are non linear and do use electricity from natural gas.
      - nawgz 3y ago
        So if I understand you, the only non-linear effect in play is that Heat Pumps are MORE efficient when the temperature differential is higher, is that correct?
        Retric 3y ago
        Heat pumps are LESS efficient when the temperature differential is higher. https://learnmetrics.com/heat-pump-efficiency-vs-temperature-graph/ https://learnmetrics.com/heat-pump-efficiency-vs-temperature...
    - TeMPOraL 3y ago
      IDK, extremes matter. -5 to +7 has the same average as -20 to +22, but the effects on energy use are widely different (e.g. the former may command a little heating for some time; the latter will command both extreme heating and possibly also cooling). It's the same as with climate talk in general. "Ooh, the average yearly temperature only rose this much, or even fell down relative to 5/10/20 years ago." - sure, but if the range of temperatures keeps growing, you can end up with both a nice average falling year over year, and uninhabitable land due to all useful vegetation freezing up or drying up.
      - nawgz 3y ago
        > the latter will command both extreme heating and possibly also cooling I fully disagree with your use of "extreme" here, you have no evidence for that. Homes naturally have insulation which would mean the +22 temperatures would heat them, and some of that leftover heat would therefore reduce the need for heating. Indeed, it seems likely to me that the rate of heat leach would keep both these situations identical except for the fact you managed to inject "also using AC" in here like anyone ever does that. Quite a weak argument. The overall climate of our planet has nothing to do with the energy cost to heat a home.
- grt_thr 3y ago
  https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/03/09/climate-change-europe-emerges-from-second-warmest-winter-on-record https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/03/09/climate-change-eur... Not sure how the second warmest winters ever recorded can be cooler than the average of the next 4 warmest winters.
  - eric-hu 3y ago
    The paper is specific to Germany, and your linked article reported statistics about Europe. Apples to oranges.
    - grt_thr 3y ago
      There isn't a German expedition energy market, there is a European one.
sho_hn 3y ago
> To this day so many people in Europe cannot engage in strategic thinking. Much more troubling: Few people worldwide have the attention span and stamina to read a text of the length of an academic paper and engage its contents. That this thread is for the moment mostly hurried comments desperate to control the message shows as much. And it's tightly related to inability to do strategic thinking.
- ChuckNorris89 3y ago
  >Much more troubling: Few people worldwide have the attention span and stamina to read a text of the length off an academic paper and engage its contents. You don't need to read academic papers to know that Russia = evil. Eastern Europe has been parroting this for decades but Germany stuck its fingers in its ears and went "la-la-la-la, I can't hear you over the sound of my cheap gas brokered by our lord and savior, Gerhard Schröder, who's on the Kremlin's payroll". Even after Russia's invasion of Chechnya in 1994 and 1999, and Russia's invasion of Georgia in 2008, and Russia's invasion of Crimea in 2014, nobody could have seen Russia invading another neighboring country again in 2022, it was a total shock for European politicians. /s
  - it_citizen 3y ago
    This is very simplified. A lot of western countries, Germany first, believed that if we traded and opened up to those countries, they would naturally tend to adopt western values. It turned out to be incorrect. China being an even better example. But it was not a crazy assumption at the time, and coming after the fact is hindsight 20/20. Honestly, even knowing how things turned out, I am proud that the west tried.
    - ChuckNorris89 3y ago
      >if we traded and opened up to those countries, they would naturally tend to adopt western values. You can't possibly tell me with a straight face that your argument is "Germany didn't know that Russia invading 3 countries was bad and it hoped Russia would come around if it just kept buying gas from them and pumping trillions in their economy which Russia spent on its military would make them more peaceful". It's safe to assume that either Germany doesn't know when to take a hint that after 3 invasions, your trading partner is not gonna come around, or Germany was actively ignoring Russia's warmongering for it's own benefit. Either way it looks bad on Germany and no made up excuses are gonna cut it.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
nr2x 3y ago
Eh, Germans and points west are delusional, Hungary is corrupt, but Poland and the Baltics know the score. The fact that Poland had to shame Germany into defending their *own interests* should be a national embarrassment.
gerdesj 3y ago
I lived in West Germany off and on in the '70s-'90s. I am a Brit. If you recall, that period is referred to as the Cold War - Mum and Dad were both soldiers and we got posted abroad a lot. Nowadays I have a Pole as an employee, who lives in Poland. That would have been unthinkable back in the day. I pay Thomasz the same rate as my local employees. He deals with IT snags in Britain the same way I do - over the blower and with remote access tools, such as Mesh Central.
redeeman 3y ago
> That means sacrificing something small (like a gas shortage) okay.. tell that to the ones that simply cannot afford it > for something valuable (no major war in Europe). /me looks at Ukraine: there seems to be a war... /me looks at globe.. in... Europe. is the war lasting longer because the EU and US sends arms to Ukraine?
- _kbh_ 3y ago
  > is the war lasting longer because the EU and US sends arms to Ukraine? The war is lasting longer because the Russians have decided that the number of dead Russians and recaptured positions that need to happen for the war to end is higher than what Ukraine has currently achieved. This war could be over tomorrow if Russia decided to leave, if anything western weapons and aid are making the war end faster by speeding up Russias defeat.
  - redeeman 3y ago
    im not saying anything about that, but answer my question, is the war lasting longer due to US/EU actions, or is it shorter? it seems ukraine cannot defeat russia even with all the aid we give them, might the war simply be prolonged by giving a false sense of hope? how many more are we making die?
    - H8crilA 3y ago
      You'd be right if not for what Russia plans to do next in the event of a victory in Ukraine. Ukraine is not the target, it's a target in the sequence of targets. A few months before the war broke out Putin issued a very clear ultimatum to the West: withdrawal of NATO forces and installations from every country east of Germany. He issued none to Ukraine because he wanted the entire country. The war will continue for as long as Russia is able to wage it, therefore we must destroy Russia as a political system that exists today. Or declaw it to the point of irrelevance. That is the way out of this war, unless you're willing to go back to USSR borders. And even then it's not clear they would stop. Russia is surprisingly open about its goals. Just read what serious people in the Kremlin say over the years (and definitely tune out the garbage that they spew on Rossiya 1 for the older generation homo-sovieticus, no one in the Kremlin cares about that shit). Thanks to the large influx of Russian-speaking immigration we have quite a lot of capable experts that understand it well. War, unlike marriage, only requires consent on one side. I.e. the "collective west" is in a war just because Russia wants that, and there's nothing "West" can do to exit the war. They can only win it.

mperham 3y ago

From the article: Moreover, the country did not simply get lucky with particularly mild winter temperatures, as often alleged. The average winter temperature in the 2022/23 winter of 2.9°C was actually slightly colder than the average temperature over the four previous winters.

sounds 3y ago
It's possible to have a lower mean temperature and still use less total heat. Stats, right? E.g. if the temperature is warmer at night.
- hrefgtd 3y ago
  [flagged]
- nawgz 3y ago
  Unless there's some non-linear interactions that I'm unaware of, it seems like the mean temp is the only thing you'd need to know wrt how much energy you need to use to keep it roughly at some other temp thru the season
  - Retric 3y ago
    Heat loss is linear. Resistance heating is linear. Furnaces using slightly colder outside air are just a tiny bit less efficient, but it’s really close to linear. Heat pumps are non linear and do use electricity from natural gas.
    - nawgz 3y ago
      So if I understand you, the only non-linear effect in play is that Heat Pumps are MORE efficient when the temperature differential is higher, is that correct?
      - Retric 3y ago
        Heat pumps are LESS efficient when the temperature differential is higher. https://learnmetrics.com/heat-pump-efficiency-vs-temperature-graph/ https://learnmetrics.com/heat-pump-efficiency-vs-temperature...
  - TeMPOraL 3y ago
    IDK, extremes matter. -5 to +7 has the same average as -20 to +22, but the effects on energy use are widely different (e.g. the former may command a little heating for some time; the latter will command both extreme heating and possibly also cooling). It's the same as with climate talk in general. "Ooh, the average yearly temperature only rose this much, or even fell down relative to 5/10/20 years ago." - sure, but if the range of temperatures keeps growing, you can end up with both a nice average falling year over year, and uninhabitable land due to all useful vegetation freezing up or drying up.
    - nawgz 3y ago
      > the latter will command both extreme heating and possibly also cooling I fully disagree with your use of "extreme" here, you have no evidence for that. Homes naturally have insulation which would mean the +22 temperatures would heat them, and some of that leftover heat would therefore reduce the need for heating. Indeed, it seems likely to me that the rate of heat leach would keep both these situations identical except for the fact you managed to inject "also using AC" in here like anyone ever does that. Quite a weak argument. The overall climate of our planet has nothing to do with the energy cost to heat a home.
grt_thr 3y ago
https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/03/09/climate-change-europe-emerges-from-second-warmest-winter-on-record https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/03/09/climate-change-eur... Not sure how the second warmest winters ever recorded can be cooler than the average of the next 4 warmest winters.
- eric-hu 3y ago
  The paper is specific to Germany, and your linked article reported statistics about Europe. Apples to oranges.
  - grt_thr 3y ago
    There isn't a German expedition energy market, there is a European one.

sho_hn 3y ago

> To this day so many people in Europe cannot engage in strategic thinking. Much more troubling: Few people worldwide have the attention span and stamina to read a text of the length of an academic paper and engage its contents. That this thread is for the moment mostly hurried comments desperate to control the message shows as much. And it's tightly related to inability to do strategic thinking.

ChuckNorris89 3y ago
>Much more troubling: Few people worldwide have the attention span and stamina to read a text of the length off an academic paper and engage its contents. You don't need to read academic papers to know that Russia = evil. Eastern Europe has been parroting this for decades but Germany stuck its fingers in its ears and went "la-la-la-la, I can't hear you over the sound of my cheap gas brokered by our lord and savior, Gerhard Schröder, who's on the Kremlin's payroll". Even after Russia's invasion of Chechnya in 1994 and 1999, and Russia's invasion of Georgia in 2008, and Russia's invasion of Crimea in 2014, nobody could have seen Russia invading another neighboring country again in 2022, it was a total shock for European politicians. /s
- it_citizen 3y ago
  This is very simplified. A lot of western countries, Germany first, believed that if we traded and opened up to those countries, they would naturally tend to adopt western values. It turned out to be incorrect. China being an even better example. But it was not a crazy assumption at the time, and coming after the fact is hindsight 20/20. Honestly, even knowing how things turned out, I am proud that the west tried.
  - ChuckNorris89 3y ago
    >if we traded and opened up to those countries, they would naturally tend to adopt western values. You can't possibly tell me with a straight face that your argument is "Germany didn't know that Russia invading 3 countries was bad and it hoped Russia would come around if it just kept buying gas from them and pumping trillions in their economy which Russia spent on its military would make them more peaceful". It's safe to assume that either Germany doesn't know when to take a hint that after 3 invasions, your trading partner is not gonna come around, or Germany was actively ignoring Russia's warmongering for it's own benefit. Either way it looks bad on Germany and no made up excuses are gonna cut it.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

nr2x 3y ago

Eh, Germans and points west are delusional, Hungary is corrupt, but Poland and the Baltics know the score. The fact that Poland had to shame Germany into defending their *own interests* should be a national embarrassment.

gerdesj 3y ago

I lived in West Germany off and on in the '70s-'90s. I am a Brit. If you recall, that period is referred to as the Cold War - Mum and Dad were both soldiers and we got posted abroad a lot. Nowadays I have a Pole as an employee, who lives in Poland. That would have been unthinkable back in the day. I pay Thomasz the same rate as my local employees. He deals with IT snags in Britain the same way I do - over the blower and with remote access tools, such as Mesh Central.

redeeman 3y ago

> That means sacrificing something small (like a gas shortage) okay.. tell that to the ones that simply cannot afford it > for something valuable (no major war in Europe). /me looks at Ukraine: there seems to be a war... /me looks at globe.. in... Europe. is the war lasting longer because the EU and US sends arms to Ukraine?

_kbh_ 3y ago
> is the war lasting longer because the EU and US sends arms to Ukraine? The war is lasting longer because the Russians have decided that the number of dead Russians and recaptured positions that need to happen for the war to end is higher than what Ukraine has currently achieved. This war could be over tomorrow if Russia decided to leave, if anything western weapons and aid are making the war end faster by speeding up Russias defeat.
- redeeman 3y ago
  im not saying anything about that, but answer my question, is the war lasting longer due to US/EU actions, or is it shorter? it seems ukraine cannot defeat russia even with all the aid we give them, might the war simply be prolonged by giving a false sense of hope? how many more are we making die?
  - H8crilA 3y ago
    You'd be right if not for what Russia plans to do next in the event of a victory in Ukraine. Ukraine is not the target, it's a target in the sequence of targets. A few months before the war broke out Putin issued a very clear ultimatum to the West: withdrawal of NATO forces and installations from every country east of Germany. He issued none to Ukraine because he wanted the entire country. The war will continue for as long as Russia is able to wage it, therefore we must destroy Russia as a political system that exists today. Or declaw it to the point of irrelevance. That is the way out of this war, unless you're willing to go back to USSR borders. And even then it's not clear they would stop. Russia is surprisingly open about its goals. Just read what serious people in the Kremlin say over the years (and definitely tune out the garbage that they spew on Rossiya 1 for the older generation homo-sovieticus, no one in the Kremlin cares about that shit). Thanks to the large influx of Russian-speaking immigration we have quite a lot of capable experts that understand it well. War, unlike marriage, only requires consent on one side. I.e. the "collective west" is in a war just because Russia wants that, and there's nothing "West" can do to exit the war. They can only win it.