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There's an odd two-sided dynamic around resistance to implementing adaptation measures as a response to fossil-fueled global warming. One group (representing f
by photochemsyn 3y ago
There's an odd two-sided dynamic around resistance to implementing adaptation measures as a response to fossil-fueled global warming.
One group (representing fossil fuel-linked economies) doesn't want to admit that adaptation is necessary, as that entails accepting that the scientific understanding of our current climate trajectory is robust, and another group (representing politically-minded climate activists) seems to think accepting the necessity of adaptation means 'giving up' on stabilizing the climate and getting off fossil fuels.
Neither of these are rational viewpoints - the tipping point for the climate transition has come and gone, and even an immediate cessation of fossil fuel use would still entail 100+ years of warming at rates comparable to the past 40 years (likely greater) due to the lag in the system (ocean response times) as well as to permafrost thaw. Claiming this isn't the case is really just another kind of denialism.
On top of that, existing fossil fuel infrastructure and production appears set to continue for the next 30 years at current rates (just look at all the new fossil-fuel burning cars, trucks, jets, etc. coming off the production lines each year, or at the business model projections of all the major fossil fuel producers) and despite the political posturing of some politicians in the USA and other fossil fuel producers, there's no real interest in replacing fossil fuels with renewables on an accelerated timeline, except in those countries that have to import all their fossil fuels from abroad, and even there progress is fairly slow.
The only response that makes any sense is a massive nationwide infrastructure development project designed to mitigate heat waves, wildfires, droughts, floods, extreme storms and seawater incursion.
- wizofaus 3y agoIt's hard to see how adaptation won't end up being far more disruptive to the lifestyles we currently take for granted than if we'd actually put in place measures 20+ years ago to gradually phase ourselves off fossil fuels. It's hard to imagine that in 30 or 40 years areas like that around Phoenix will be capable of supporting large populations at all for a start, so adaptation is going to look a lot like mass migration away from such regions. That, or living underground...
- gmuslera 3y agoDealing with the symptoms without addressing the disease won’t work, specially when things will keep becoming worse, far worse, than what you imagine. Feedback loops and tipping points will make things to change far past what it did in the last 40 years. The past emissions will remain in the atmosphere for at least another century (and will remain in the carbon cycle, so they will be a new stable), you will have more nature emissions (the permafrost thawing that you mentioned, more forest fires, more activity from microbes in wetlands and so on), and more things that will increase warming (like ice melting, and incoming blue ocean event, and more). And all of that, even if we stop all civilization emissions by tomorrow. We may not survive with mild measures, you are ready to prioritize economy or even civilization over full extinction?