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I've only seen 2 comments about Tesla on this thread. But, it seems people underestimate Tesla on here (I'm not the biggest fan). Though they are having great p

by deepzn 3y ago

I've only seen 2 comments about Tesla on this thread. But, it seems people underestimate Tesla on here (I'm not the biggest fan). Though they are having great progress in their FSD beta- one way to mark this is by the number of users with access to it, which has increased significantly. This allows them to collect a lot more real world data then their competitors. Once this gets better and is able to prove better driving than a human, which seems possible in certain metros at least as Waymo is doing, then they can do an autonomous Uber network of their Teslas. But I think this is a smart move to join forces, and will give the consumer healthy competition in this space.

shmatt 3y ago
If Tesla's competitors were able to get government FSD permits without all that data. Maybe that data isn't really important to achieve the target
- deepzn 3y ago
  if we're talking about overall effectiveness, then I think it is. Maybe passing a minimum threshold and having a safety effective of say 95% vs 99% or something. It's obviously going to be a very high percentage threshold that needs to be crossed to allow the public to use it. So, right now it's like a trial experiment with FSD, but I definitely feel like a data advantage would play out into a higher safety rating before it's in GA. Maybe eventually others will catch up, that could be quicker than longer, but it's a valid potential advantage for Tesla.
  - zamnos 3y ago
    just to nitpick, but with airline travel about five or six nines (99.9999%) safe, that is, one fatality every million miles of travel or so, 95% vs 99% is nowhere near good enough. https://www.flightglobal.com/airlines/how-safe-were-commercial-airline-flights-in-2021/147791.article https://www.flightglobal.com/airlines/how-safe-were-commerci...
    - minwcnt5 3y ago
      One million flights not one million miles of travel. There'd be a lot of dead frequent fliers if it was a death per million miles.
    - deepzn 3y ago
      Yes it will be likely needing a 99.99%+ accuracy. I just made a vague suggestion, as I didn't have time to look it up. Elon mentioned it too, it doesn't just need to better than a human, but massively better. I don't know the exact accident stats for human drivers. But self-driving cars will need to be much higher.
threeseed 3y ago
People should underestimate Tesla: 1. Lack of LiDAR sensors. Vision is still not (and IMHO will never be) an adequate replacement. 2. Waymo/Cruise etc. can upgrade their taxis easily with capabilities over time. Tesla is restricted by their promise that FSD will work on previously shipped cars.

by deepzn 3y ago

shmatt 3y ago

If Tesla's competitors were able to get government FSD permits without all that data. Maybe that data isn't really important to achieve the target

deepzn 3y ago
if we're talking about overall effectiveness, then I think it is. Maybe passing a minimum threshold and having a safety effective of say 95% vs 99% or something. It's obviously going to be a very high percentage threshold that needs to be crossed to allow the public to use it. So, right now it's like a trial experiment with FSD, but I definitely feel like a data advantage would play out into a higher safety rating before it's in GA. Maybe eventually others will catch up, that could be quicker than longer, but it's a valid potential advantage for Tesla.
- zamnos 3y ago
  just to nitpick, but with airline travel about five or six nines (99.9999%) safe, that is, one fatality every million miles of travel or so, 95% vs 99% is nowhere near good enough. https://www.flightglobal.com/airlines/how-safe-were-commercial-airline-flights-in-2021/147791.article https://www.flightglobal.com/airlines/how-safe-were-commerci...
  - minwcnt5 3y ago
    One million flights not one million miles of travel. There'd be a lot of dead frequent fliers if it was a death per million miles.
  - deepzn 3y ago
    Yes it will be likely needing a 99.99%+ accuracy. I just made a vague suggestion, as I didn't have time to look it up. Elon mentioned it too, it doesn't just need to better than a human, but massively better. I don't know the exact accident stats for human drivers. But self-driving cars will need to be much higher.

threeseed 3y ago

People should underestimate Tesla: 1. Lack of LiDAR sensors. Vision is still not (and IMHO will never be) an adequate replacement. 2. Waymo/Cruise etc. can upgrade their taxis easily with capabilities over time. Tesla is restricted by their promise that FSD will work on previously shipped cars.