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>> It should be obvious to China that what is currently happening to Russia is also slated to happen to them. > An international spanking for starting a war of

by tivert 3y ago

>> It should be obvious to China that what is currently happening to Russia is also slated to happen to them. > An international spanking for starting a war of aggression is a wonderful precedent to set. That's the wrong metaphor. The West is in no position to provide "spankings" on demand. It's not the world's parent, and even it if was, children eventually grow up and parents pass their peak and decline in strength. China will learn from this (Russia's tactical mistakes), and will adapt to avoid repeating them. The West may get cocky from the successes in Ukraine, and fail to adapt, and put itself in a position to be "spanked." You can actually see the same dynamic in Ukraine: Russia invaded in 2014, and totally spanked Ukraine. Ukraine adapted, but the Russians cockily waltzed in in 2022 expecting to be able to repeat 2014, and got spanked themselves.

ceejayoz 3y ago
> The West is in no position to provide "spankings" on demand. They seem to manage it fairly often, and certainly in this case. > China will learn from this (Russia's tactical mistakes), and will adapt to avoid repeating them. I most certainly hope they do. Giving up on taking Taiwan by force would be a wonderful result out of the Ukraine war. The West should encourage that lesson by pre-arming Taiwan with as many F-16s, Javelins, Stingers, etc. that they can produce.
- tivert 3y ago
  > I most certainly hope they do. Giving up on taking Taiwan by force would be a wonderful result out of the Ukraine war. The West should encourage that lesson by pre-arming Taiwan with as many F-16s, Javelins, Stingers, etc. that they can produce. That they'd just give up on militarily taking Taiwan because of this is more Western fantasy that reality, so I doubt that. The lessons they'll take will be ones of military tactics and strategy. They can assume the West will dump "F-16s, Javelins, Stingers, etc." into Taiwan, so how can they counter that? Maybe they develop a version of the US/Israeli Tropy system,* and put it on all their tanks. If they're competent at all, they're going to make sure they're making none of Russia mistakes (e.g. they're going to have someone making sure they're regularly rotating the tires on their military vehicles). But maybe they don't have to do much if anything, since Taiwan will be far, far harder to resupply than Ukraine. * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trophy_(countermeasure) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trophy_(countermeasure)
  - ceejayoz 3y ago
    > Maybe they develop a version of the US/Israeli Tropy system,* and put it on all their tanks. Russia already has such a thing (as does China). It'll never be perfect, especially against peer adversaries invested in countering it. (This includes Trophy!) > But maybe they don't have to do much if anything, since Taiwan will be far, far harder to resupply than Ukraine. All the more reason to do it in advance. > If they're competent at all... Folks thought the Russians were competent up until they had to prove it in combat. You don't think that gives the Chinese pause?
    - tivert 3y ago
      > Russia already has such a thing (as does China). Did Russia widely deploy it? > It'll never be perfect, especially against peer adversaries invested in countering it. (This includes Trophy!) You could say the same thing about antitank missiles. The system doesn't have to be perfect to prevent a boatload of Javelin's from becoming some kind of trump card. > All the more reason to do it in advance. Sure, but supply chain problems could prevent that. Isn't the West pouring so much of their available stockpiles into Ukraine that they may not have enough send to sit in a Taiwanese warehouse? > Folks thought the Russians were competent up until they had to prove it in combat. You don't think that gives the Chinese pause? It will give them pause, but not a despondent "we give up forever because this proves we will always fail" pause, but rather a "lets make sure we're even better, so we can succeed when we try" pause.
      - ceejayoz 3y ago
        > The system doesn't have to be perfect to prevent a boatload of Javelin's from becoming some kind of trump card. It kinda does. A Javelin costs $100k. A main battle tank costs millions. Even if it takes 10-20 Javelins you're coming out on top. > Sure, but supply chain problems could prevent that. Isn't the West pouring so much of their available stockpiles into Ukraine that they may not have enough send to sit in a Taiwanese warehouse? Make more? Call it economic stimulus. > It will give them pause, but not a despondent "we give up forever because this proves we will always fail" pause, but rather a "lets make sure we're even better, so we can succeed when we try" pause. Do you think it's impossible to make Taiwan a tough enough target to resist an invasion, of the kind (massive-scale amphibious) China's never performed before?

by tivert 3y ago

ceejayoz 3y ago

> The West is in no position to provide "spankings" on demand. They seem to manage it fairly often, and certainly in this case. > China will learn from this (Russia's tactical mistakes), and will adapt to avoid repeating them. I most certainly hope they do. Giving up on taking Taiwan by force would be a wonderful result out of the Ukraine war. The West should encourage that lesson by pre-arming Taiwan with as many F-16s, Javelins, Stingers, etc. that they can produce.

tivert 3y ago
> I most certainly hope they do. Giving up on taking Taiwan by force would be a wonderful result out of the Ukraine war. The West should encourage that lesson by pre-arming Taiwan with as many F-16s, Javelins, Stingers, etc. that they can produce. That they'd just give up on militarily taking Taiwan because of this is more Western fantasy that reality, so I doubt that. The lessons they'll take will be ones of military tactics and strategy. They can assume the West will dump "F-16s, Javelins, Stingers, etc." into Taiwan, so how can they counter that? Maybe they develop a version of the US/Israeli Tropy system,* and put it on all their tanks. If they're competent at all, they're going to make sure they're making none of Russia mistakes (e.g. they're going to have someone making sure they're regularly rotating the tires on their military vehicles). But maybe they don't have to do much if anything, since Taiwan will be far, far harder to resupply than Ukraine. * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trophy_(countermeasure) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trophy_(countermeasure)
- ceejayoz 3y ago
  > Maybe they develop a version of the US/Israeli Tropy system,* and put it on all their tanks. Russia already has such a thing (as does China). It'll never be perfect, especially against peer adversaries invested in countering it. (This includes Trophy!) > But maybe they don't have to do much if anything, since Taiwan will be far, far harder to resupply than Ukraine. All the more reason to do it in advance. > If they're competent at all... Folks thought the Russians were competent up until they had to prove it in combat. You don't think that gives the Chinese pause?
  - tivert 3y ago
    > Russia already has such a thing (as does China). Did Russia widely deploy it? > It'll never be perfect, especially against peer adversaries invested in countering it. (This includes Trophy!) You could say the same thing about antitank missiles. The system doesn't have to be perfect to prevent a boatload of Javelin's from becoming some kind of trump card. > All the more reason to do it in advance. Sure, but supply chain problems could prevent that. Isn't the West pouring so much of their available stockpiles into Ukraine that they may not have enough send to sit in a Taiwanese warehouse? > Folks thought the Russians were competent up until they had to prove it in combat. You don't think that gives the Chinese pause? It will give them pause, but not a despondent "we give up forever because this proves we will always fail" pause, but rather a "lets make sure we're even better, so we can succeed when we try" pause.
    - ceejayoz 3y ago
      > The system doesn't have to be perfect to prevent a boatload of Javelin's from becoming some kind of trump card. It kinda does. A Javelin costs $100k. A main battle tank costs millions. Even if it takes 10-20 Javelins you're coming out on top. > Sure, but supply chain problems could prevent that. Isn't the West pouring so much of their available stockpiles into Ukraine that they may not have enough send to sit in a Taiwanese warehouse? Make more? Call it economic stimulus. > It will give them pause, but not a despondent "we give up forever because this proves we will always fail" pause, but rather a "lets make sure we're even better, so we can succeed when we try" pause. Do you think it's impossible to make Taiwan a tough enough target to resist an invasion, of the kind (massive-scale amphibious) China's never performed before?