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A lot of what those investors do (especially VCs on commission and VPs in big corps) is no different than gambling: they look at the founders, listen to their p
by akomtu 3y ago
A lot of what those investors do (especially VCs on commission and VPs in big corps) is no different than gambling: they look at the founders, listen to their pitch and make a bet. Once big investors realise that GPT4 makes better bets, all those gamblers will have to follow that green Exit sign.
- whimsicalism 3y agoGambling is not productive, putting money where your mouth is on what will be successful is critical for allocating capital to productive ventures.
- candiddevmike 3y agoWhat is your definition of productive?
- whimsicalism 3y agoA process that leads to more of people’s wants being fulfilled. By this definition, there is maybe mild productivity benefits from gambling, but nothing compared to giving money to productive enterprise that is resource constrained.
- flangola7 3y agoMany enterprises "produce" objectively horrifically negative value for humans. It's not a rule that putting money in a gambling machine produces worse outcomes than if it was placed into a company.
- gwd 3y agoA gambling payout never creates anything of value for society; money is simply transferred from the House to one individual customer. An investing payout sometimes creates something of value for society: when the thing invested in turns out to be useful to people.
- whimsicalism 3y agoIf we view generally human lives today as better in the past (which I do), then it seems like it follows that the average capital investment is going to net valuable enterprise?
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- WalterBright 3y agoWhat's the difference between gambling and investing? Gambling: the expected ROI is negative Investing: the expected ROI is positive
- akomtu 3y agoThe only difference is a special exemption in the law for investing, as otherwise it would fall under the definition of gambling. Investing is gambling for big guys.
- slashdev 3y agoThat’s just wrong. The comment you replied to is correct. In gambling the odds are against you. In investing the odds are with you (if they’re not, you’re doing it wrong!) you can get lucky or unlucky in either, but one has a negative expected return over time while the other has a positive expected return.
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- xiphias2 3y agoSomebody has to do the basic filtering and basic pattern matching and legal structure so that people don't just disappear and run away with the money. Even without any gambling I have a quite back track record of getting back the money I gave away as loans.
- slashdev 3y agoGPT is not going to make good bets. It has no current knowledge of the world, no logical thinking ability. Some investors don’t either, so the comparison might not be very unfavorable, but I don’t think Wall Street needs to be watching over their shoulder for GPT.