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This paragraph, towards the very end of the article, represents what terrifies me the most I think. We’re already in a post-truth era in the West (probably else

This paragraph, towards the very end of the article, represents what terrifies me the most I think. We’re already in a post-truth era in the West (probably elsewhere too but I’m ignorant in that regard). Will people learn to verify sources? Sources say no… > I find it fascinating that novelists galore have written for decades about scenarios that might occur after a "singularity" in which superintelligent machines exist. But as far as I know, not a single novelist has realized that such a singularity would almost surely be preceded by a world in which machines are 0.01% intelligent (say), and in which millions of real people would be able to interact with them freely at essentially no cost.

bombcar 3y ago
Many of our “signals” that something is researched and at least somewhat true are going to start failing us. We may not even realize how subconsciously we do so.
- itronitron 3y ago
  Which could lead more people to improve their critical thinking skills, too optimistic?
  - bombcar 3y ago
    Way too optimistic unless perhaps we just go back to admitting that for most of what we think about, we just trust authorities.
skinnyarms 3y ago
Side note: Statements like that paragraph drive me absolutely batty. There have been tons of novels, novellas, movies, comics, YouTube videos, poems (yep) imagining all sorts of aspects of the singularity. How fast it comes on How this was no warning How there was lots of warning How we shoulda known How nobody coulda known How it completely takes over society immediately About the long drawn out wars fought for it to take over society How society splits between those under it's affects, and those not How prevalent the effects are How exclusive the effects are How big, how small etc, etc, etc There are billions of humans out there right now, imagining all manner of things, and it's irritating to me to see all the hand wringing over the "Nobody stopped to think if they should". Lots of people did, and are, asking that question.
- tester457 3y ago
  There have been many but none I know of have predicted what we are experiencing now.
- thebigwinning 3y ago
  Almost all of this is just brand engagement with tech company marketing.
  - thebigwinning 3y ago
    More detail. They have positioned themselves as being too powerful. Think about how ridiculous that is, and at odds with everything else we know about the industry. They love it. They want YouTubers warning about how cool their tech is. They want the CEOs to philosophize about whether self driving is ethical with their friends.
    - bombcar 3y ago
      It’s the plastic bag wrapped around the drain cleaner - making you think it’s so acidic and powerful it has to be carefully controlled. But it’s all just marketing and completely unnecessary and to plumber would even bother.
- gwern 3y ago
  I think it's wrong for a much more profound reason: what Knuth describes as an aberration is, like, 90% of all AI in science fiction, ever. They are almost all human or sub-human, with only the occasional god-like AI (carefully rendered irrelevant). Singularity-style SF is rare, in part because authors really want to write human-centric stories, and because a true Singularity SF story is quite difficult to write. (As Vinge was so memorably told when he tried some of the first: "you aren't smart enough to write this story. No one is.") So, you can fit pretty much the entire corpus on a screen or two: some Vinge, some Stross, some Rajaniemi, some Brin, maybe some Stanislaw Lem or Olaf Stapledon if you're feeling historical/generous... As opposed to 'mundane' AI which is probably the last SF fiction you read and then the dozen before that too.
goalieca 3y ago
> We’re already in a post-truth era Not really. There’s more truth today than any era of the past. I don’t seek the alignment of planets to predict if my crop will face drought. I can read and study on my own as I do not rely on an anointed class or caste to tell me the truth.
- williamcotton 3y ago
  What post-truth means is a fractured epistemology. The anointed classes with their movements of the planet and the general population were basically all in agreement with their definitions of “truth”. Right now the guy down my street reading the Epoch Times has a very different notion of truth than I do!
  - avgcorrection 3y ago
    > The anointed classes with their movements of the planet and the general population were basically all in agreement with their definitions of “truth”. So wrote down the anointed classes anyway.
- ftxbro 3y ago
  When they talk about post-truth era I think they refer to the return to the pre-enlightenment age. Like some tribal or feudal might-makes-right kind of stuff. They are talking about politics and power relations, not about things like astronomy or cartography.
- wendyshu 3y ago
  As far as I can tell it's just a buzzword used by people strawmanning Trump.
underdeserver 3y ago
On the other hand, if people get used to how confidently ChatGPT hallucinates, and learn to verify by reflex, maybe they'll get used to doing that for social media and press, too.
- ineedasername 3y ago
  EDIT DISCLAIMER: The following was, in the spirit of the parent comment, produced via ChatGPT. My child comment to this one gives the exact prompt. I am not trying to GPT spam comments, but instead to give a case in point for the context of the conversation. ~ Indeed, the notion of developing a reflexive approach to verifying information holds significant promise for the future of social media and press. As humans interact more frequently with advanced language models like ChatGPT, it becomes crucial to foster a sense of critical thinking and discernment in evaluating the information presented. One key aspect of cultivating this reflexive verification lies in leveraging the concept of media literacy. Media literacy refers to the ability to access, critically analyze, evaluate, and create media content. By incorporating media literacy education into curricula and promoting it within society, individuals can enhance their skills in discerning between reliable and potentially misleading information. Research has shown that media literacy interventions contribute to improved critical thinking abilities and increased skepticism toward inaccurate or biased content (Martens, 2020; Hobbs & Jensen, 2018). Moreover, the technological advancements that underpin ChatGPT and similar AI models also offer potential solutions to tackle misinformation. Researchers are actively exploring techniques to enhance transparency and explainability in AI systems. By developing methods that allow users to better understand the reasoning and sources behind AI-generated outputs, individuals can become more adept at verifying the information provided by these models (Ribeiro et al., 2020). Transparent AI systems could empower users to make informed decisions regarding the reliability of AI-generated content, fostering a culture of accountability and fact-checking. It is important to note that the responsibility for combating misinformation does not solely lie with users. The tech industry, social media platforms, and news organizations must play an active role in promoting transparency, accuracy, and responsible information dissemination. Initiatives such as fact-checking services, algorithmic transparency, and content moderation guidelines can contribute to fostering a trustworthy information ecosystem (Guess et al., 2020; Diakopoulos & Koliska, 2017). In conclusion, while the confident hallucinations of ChatGPT may initially raise concerns, the prospect of fostering a reflexive verification approach presents an opportunity for society to become more discerning consumers of information. By integrating media literacy education, promoting transparent AI systems, and engaging in collaborative efforts across various sectors, we can work towards a future where misinformation is effectively countered, and reliable information prevails. References: --Diakopoulos, N., & Koliska, M. (2017). Accounting for algorithmic bias: A proposal for public audits of black-box algorithms in social media. Proceedings of the 2017 ACM Conference on Computer Supported Cooperative Work and Social Computing, 1176-1190. --Guess, A., Nyhan, B., & Reifler, J. (2020). Exposure to untrustworthy websites in the 2016 US election. Nature Human Behaviour, 4(5), 472-480. --Hobbs, R., & Jensen, A. (2018). The past, present, and future of media literacy education. Journal of Media Literacy Education, 10(2), 1-7. --Martens, H. (2020). The impact of media literacy interventions on critical thinking competencies and dispositions: Results from a quasi-experimental study. Journal of Media Literacy Education, 12(2), 28-50. -- Ribeiro, M. T., Wu, T., Guestrin, C., & Singh, S. (2020). Beyond accuracy: Behavioral testing of NLP models with CheckList. Proceedings of the 58th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics, 4902-4912.
orbisvicis 3y ago
Have they? I can't think of any science fiction that takes place within the singularity. It would be like a perfect protagonist; without flaws there can be no story, but in the singularity every character would be both perfect and inconceivably alien. The Zones of Thought series (Vinge) hardly strays from the Slow zone, and never into the Transcend except by reference. Accelerando (Stross) follows humans into exile rather than continue the narrative into the Matrioshka sphere. The Eschaton series (Stross) limits itself to the effects of the Singularity on non-Singularity civilizations. On the other hand, plenty of science fiction narrates the acceleration towards a Singularity: Fast Times at Fairmont High (Vinge), Dennou Coil (anime). Or describe the aftermath of the Singularity on those left behind: Marooned in Realtime (Vinge). Or describe a society which averted the Singularity: Dune (Herbert).
- teo_zero 3y ago
  True. No writer can imagine what's beyond the singularity, as no astronomer can look into a black hole. They can only explore "around" it, outside the "events horizon". This is by definition of singularity: if it was possible to predict what's next, then that would be just a (meaningful) moment in the human history but not the singularity.

bombcar 3y ago

Many of our “signals” that something is researched and at least somewhat true are going to start failing us. We may not even realize how subconsciously we do so.

itronitron 3y ago
Which could lead more people to improve their critical thinking skills, too optimistic?
- bombcar 3y ago
  Way too optimistic unless perhaps we just go back to admitting that for most of what we think about, we just trust authorities.

skinnyarms 3y ago

Side note: Statements like that paragraph drive me absolutely batty. There have been tons of novels, novellas, movies, comics, YouTube videos, poems (yep) imagining all sorts of aspects of the singularity. How fast it comes on How this was no warning How there was lots of warning How we shoulda known How nobody coulda known How it completely takes over society immediately About the long drawn out wars fought for it to take over society How society splits between those under it's affects, and those not How prevalent the effects are How exclusive the effects are How big, how small etc, etc, etc There are billions of humans out there right now, imagining all manner of things, and it's irritating to me to see all the hand wringing over the "Nobody stopped to think if they should". Lots of people did, and are, asking that question.

tester457 3y ago
There have been many but none I know of have predicted what we are experiencing now.
thebigwinning 3y ago
Almost all of this is just brand engagement with tech company marketing.
- thebigwinning 3y ago
  More detail. They have positioned themselves as being too powerful. Think about how ridiculous that is, and at odds with everything else we know about the industry. They love it. They want YouTubers warning about how cool their tech is. They want the CEOs to philosophize about whether self driving is ethical with their friends.
  - bombcar 3y ago
    It’s the plastic bag wrapped around the drain cleaner - making you think it’s so acidic and powerful it has to be carefully controlled. But it’s all just marketing and completely unnecessary and to plumber would even bother.
gwern 3y ago
I think it's wrong for a much more profound reason: what Knuth describes as an aberration is, like, 90% of all AI in science fiction, ever. They are almost all human or sub-human, with only the occasional god-like AI (carefully rendered irrelevant). Singularity-style SF is rare, in part because authors really want to write human-centric stories, and because a true Singularity SF story is quite difficult to write. (As Vinge was so memorably told when he tried some of the first: "you aren't smart enough to write this story. No one is.") So, you can fit pretty much the entire corpus on a screen or two: some Vinge, some Stross, some Rajaniemi, some Brin, maybe some Stanislaw Lem or Olaf Stapledon if you're feeling historical/generous... As opposed to 'mundane' AI which is probably the last SF fiction you read and then the dozen before that too.

goalieca 3y ago

> We’re already in a post-truth era Not really. There’s more truth today than any era of the past. I don’t seek the alignment of planets to predict if my crop will face drought. I can read and study on my own as I do not rely on an anointed class or caste to tell me the truth.

williamcotton 3y ago
What post-truth means is a fractured epistemology. The anointed classes with their movements of the planet and the general population were basically all in agreement with their definitions of “truth”. Right now the guy down my street reading the Epoch Times has a very different notion of truth than I do!
- avgcorrection 3y ago
  > The anointed classes with their movements of the planet and the general population were basically all in agreement with their definitions of “truth”. So wrote down the anointed classes anyway.
ftxbro 3y ago
When they talk about post-truth era I think they refer to the return to the pre-enlightenment age. Like some tribal or feudal might-makes-right kind of stuff. They are talking about politics and power relations, not about things like astronomy or cartography.
wendyshu 3y ago
As far as I can tell it's just a buzzword used by people strawmanning Trump.

underdeserver 3y ago

On the other hand, if people get used to how confidently ChatGPT hallucinates, and learn to verify by reflex, maybe they'll get used to doing that for social media and press, too.

ineedasername 3y ago
EDIT DISCLAIMER: The following was, in the spirit of the parent comment, produced via ChatGPT. My child comment to this one gives the exact prompt. I am not trying to GPT spam comments, but instead to give a case in point for the context of the conversation. ~ Indeed, the notion of developing a reflexive approach to verifying information holds significant promise for the future of social media and press. As humans interact more frequently with advanced language models like ChatGPT, it becomes crucial to foster a sense of critical thinking and discernment in evaluating the information presented. One key aspect of cultivating this reflexive verification lies in leveraging the concept of media literacy. Media literacy refers to the ability to access, critically analyze, evaluate, and create media content. By incorporating media literacy education into curricula and promoting it within society, individuals can enhance their skills in discerning between reliable and potentially misleading information. Research has shown that media literacy interventions contribute to improved critical thinking abilities and increased skepticism toward inaccurate or biased content (Martens, 2020; Hobbs & Jensen, 2018). Moreover, the technological advancements that underpin ChatGPT and similar AI models also offer potential solutions to tackle misinformation. Researchers are actively exploring techniques to enhance transparency and explainability in AI systems. By developing methods that allow users to better understand the reasoning and sources behind AI-generated outputs, individuals can become more adept at verifying the information provided by these models (Ribeiro et al., 2020). Transparent AI systems could empower users to make informed decisions regarding the reliability of AI-generated content, fostering a culture of accountability and fact-checking. It is important to note that the responsibility for combating misinformation does not solely lie with users. The tech industry, social media platforms, and news organizations must play an active role in promoting transparency, accuracy, and responsible information dissemination. Initiatives such as fact-checking services, algorithmic transparency, and content moderation guidelines can contribute to fostering a trustworthy information ecosystem (Guess et al., 2020; Diakopoulos & Koliska, 2017). In conclusion, while the confident hallucinations of ChatGPT may initially raise concerns, the prospect of fostering a reflexive verification approach presents an opportunity for society to become more discerning consumers of information. By integrating media literacy education, promoting transparent AI systems, and engaging in collaborative efforts across various sectors, we can work towards a future where misinformation is effectively countered, and reliable information prevails. References: --Diakopoulos, N., & Koliska, M. (2017). Accounting for algorithmic bias: A proposal for public audits of black-box algorithms in social media. Proceedings of the 2017 ACM Conference on Computer Supported Cooperative Work and Social Computing, 1176-1190. --Guess, A., Nyhan, B., & Reifler, J. (2020). Exposure to untrustworthy websites in the 2016 US election. Nature Human Behaviour, 4(5), 472-480. --Hobbs, R., & Jensen, A. (2018). The past, present, and future of media literacy education. Journal of Media Literacy Education, 10(2), 1-7. --Martens, H. (2020). The impact of media literacy interventions on critical thinking competencies and dispositions: Results from a quasi-experimental study. Journal of Media Literacy Education, 12(2), 28-50. -- Ribeiro, M. T., Wu, T., Guestrin, C., & Singh, S. (2020). Beyond accuracy: Behavioral testing of NLP models with CheckList. Proceedings of the 58th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics, 4902-4912.

orbisvicis 3y ago

Have they? I can't think of any science fiction that takes place within the singularity. It would be like a perfect protagonist; without flaws there can be no story, but in the singularity every character would be both perfect and inconceivably alien. The Zones of Thought series (Vinge) hardly strays from the Slow zone, and never into the Transcend except by reference. Accelerando (Stross) follows humans into exile rather than continue the narrative into the Matrioshka sphere. The Eschaton series (Stross) limits itself to the effects of the Singularity on non-Singularity civilizations. On the other hand, plenty of science fiction narrates the acceleration towards a Singularity: Fast Times at Fairmont High (Vinge), Dennou Coil (anime). Or describe the aftermath of the Singularity on those left behind: Marooned in Realtime (Vinge). Or describe a society which averted the Singularity: Dune (Herbert).

teo_zero 3y ago
True. No writer can imagine what's beyond the singularity, as no astronomer can look into a black hole. They can only explore "around" it, outside the "events horizon". This is by definition of singularity: if it was possible to predict what's next, then that would be just a (meaningful) moment in the human history but not the singularity.