3 ms·
Moore's law is still going strong. But when people talk about Moore's Law ending they normally mean a wider set of trends, specifically: - Transistor count dou
by martinpw 3y ago
Moore's law is still going strong. But when people talk about Moore's Law ending they normally mean a wider set of trends, specifically:
- Transistor count doubles every ~24 months (Moore's law) - still going strong
- Total power stays ~constant (Dennard Scaling) - no longer holds
- Total cost stays ~constant - don't know if there is a name for this, but it no longer holds either
The real magic was when you had all three trends working together, you would get more transistors for the same power and same total cost. As the last two trends have fallen off, the benefit of Moore's law by itself is reduced.
There is still some effect of the last two trends, power per transistor and cost per transistor are still dropping, just at a slower rate than density is increasing. So power budgets and costs continue to grow. Hence 450W GPUs and 400W CPUs.