3 ms·
In its original form as in "transistors double every two years" it certainly already seems over. Apple silicon is at 5mn today, and Intel claims they'll conquer
by brancz 3y ago
In its original form as in "transistors double every two years" it certainly already seems over. Apple silicon is at 5mn today, and Intel claims they'll conquer 3mn by 2030, so even these facts and theoretical statements already don't fit anymore.
We'll probably have a couple more innovations and might get to making a transistor out of a single atom (silicon atom is 0.262nm; carbon atom is 0.3).
5nm / (2*2*2*2) =~ 0.3
So I don't think we're done making faster hardware just yet, but we're certainly getting to the boundaries of what appears to be physically possible.
- sanxiyn 3y ago"5 nm" does not correspond to any physical dimension, so it is nonsensical to compare to size of atom.
- pvaldes 3y agoA nanometer is a well defined physical dimension. If we split a milimeter in a million parts, each one is a nanometer
- misnome 3y agoYes, it’s a real unit, but when used by silicon manufacturers it’s a marketing term that doesn’t correspond to any physical dimension.
- sanxiyn 3y agoSure, but (very unfortunately for clear communication) that's not what "5 nm" written by brancz in "Apple silicon is at 5 nm" means. "Apple silicon is at TSMC N5" would be more accurate.
- quickthrower2 3y ago“5 nm node is expected to have a contacted gate pitch of 51 nanometers and a tightest metal pitch of 30 nanometers” - wikipedia Its a marketing term
- bagels 3y agoIt helps, but isn't a necessity that the size decreases to increase transistor count. You can get bigger and bigger dies / interconnected multi die assemblies too, which is happening if you look at the custom hardware Tesla and others have announced.
- JauntyHatAngle 3y agoReally dumb question from someone who barely knows this stuff, but does quantum computing in theory reduce that size again if it takes off in the future?
- exmadscientist 3y agoNo. Quantum computers do not and can not solve the same problems as classical computers, so even if quantum computers were smaller (right now they're not), they are not substitutes. This is notwithstanding the fact that current quantum computers barely work and require a huge support system even if the computation part might be small.
- sanxiyn 3y agoNo.