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I think you are misunderstanding sth. I did read your post. I'm also publishing peer-reviewed research articles related to this. I think I have some good unders

I think you are misunderstanding sth. I did read your post. I'm also publishing peer-reviewed research articles related to this. I think I have some good understanding on this. I was simply saying that I partly disagree with you. And I still do. It's wrong that this should be a surprise to no-one. In fact, I think it is reasonable that it is surprising. It was indeed really unexpected that scaling up such models leads to such behavior. Now that we have such models, and see this behavior, sure you can say in hindsight, of course it's obvious, nothing unexpected. But this is wrong. It was unexpected to many people. And saying "it should not have been unexpected", I'm not really sure what you want to say with that. Yes, it would be nice if everyone's prediction are always correct. Obviously that's not the case. Or you are saying you think this is a particular trivial case. I would disagree. English is not my native language. Maybe I just understood sth wrong.

cubefox 3y ago
One of the few people who publicly predicted the amazing abilities of the GPT-2 successors was Scott Alexander: https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/19/gpt-2-as-step-toward-general-intelligence/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/19/gpt-2-as-step-toward-g... There may have been others who expected similar miracles, but there certainly weren't many. We can conclude that at least GPT-3 took most by surprise. (I don't know how many people even knew about GPT before GPT-2 came out, it's probably hard to get a sample.) Heck, even the vast majority of people here on HN wasn't much interested in GPT-3 before ChatGPT, their new cheaper API prices, and GPT-4 came out. And when we talk about "normal people", they didn't know GPT-3 at all, they only noticed Dall-E 2, somewhat, and finally were caught by surprise when word about ChatGPT spread in a matter of weeks.
fzeroracer 3y ago
I recommend rereading the last line of his post. I think it's overly aggro, but you did not read his post since you ignored the very last line of it.
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- xcv123 3y ago
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cubefox 3y ago

One of the few people who publicly predicted the amazing abilities of the GPT-2 successors was Scott Alexander: https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/19/gpt-2-as-step-toward-general-intelligence/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/19/gpt-2-as-step-toward-g... There may have been others who expected similar miracles, but there certainly weren't many. We can conclude that at least GPT-3 took most by surprise. (I don't know how many people even knew about GPT before GPT-2 came out, it's probably hard to get a sample.) Heck, even the vast majority of people here on HN wasn't much interested in GPT-3 before ChatGPT, their new cheaper API prices, and GPT-4 came out. And when we talk about "normal people", they didn't know GPT-3 at all, they only noticed Dall-E 2, somewhat, and finally were caught by surprise when word about ChatGPT spread in a matter of weeks.

fzeroracer 3y ago

I recommend rereading the last line of his post. I think it's overly aggro, but you did not read his post since you ignored the very last line of it.

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xcv123 3y ago
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