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> As prices for city apartments increase dramatically, people lose interest in living in those cities. I would argue that the prices reflect at least an incred
by actionablefiber 3y ago
> As prices for city apartments increase dramatically, people lose interest in living in those cities.
I would argue that the prices reflect at least an incredibly persistent demand to live in those cities.
Just for different reasons than before. For instance, since the pandemic many cities have invested heavily in bike infrastructure and pedestrianization. E-bikes have become extremely popular. And as the post-COVID reopening has progressed, people have been organizing local hobbyist meetups, many of them having acquired those hobbies during the depths of the pandemic.
There is a huge lifestyle appeal to living in cities, and it will not go away anytime soon. Cities need to recognize that both the massive increase in residential demand and the massive plunge in commercial demand are incredible opportunities to differentiate themselves by converting their dead-after-6pm business districts into thriving, walkable mixed-use hubs.
- funnymony 3y agoMega yacht costs bazilions. Yes, lot of people would not reject idea of having it, but at the same time actual demand (i.e. actual number of people who would think price is worth it, is quite lower compared to spagetti which is much cheaper but has many more buyers) All in all. high price does not necessarily mean huge demand.
- fnordpiglet 3y agoGreat! Then we don’t have to fill the city with offices and we can have places for humans instead of employees.
- CydeWeys 3y agoRight, well, see, the problem is we already did the former instead of the latter, and it costs billions of dollars to reverse that.
- fnordpiglet 3y agoOk - well, residential in Manhattan is $150/square foot. Commercial $85. So… seems worth it? And billions of redevelopment investment? GDP and employment!
- throwaway2037 3y agoWhere did you find those prices? NYC is so insanely diverse about living/office, I find it hard to quote something here. Average or median is mostly meaningless.
- jazzyjackson 3y agointernet commenters are allowed to spitball, obviously a 800 sq ft 1 bdrm can go from anywhere between a quarter mil to 2 mil depending on the neighborhood and the view, OP's point is that converting to residential is a net positive for the real estate owner.
- fnordpiglet 3y agoA few real estate trade websites I quickly googled. The $85 for commercial was “top tier” Manhattan commercial office space (the other tiers ranged to over half off IIRC) and the residential was a general average of inventory in 2022. Certainly for my dissertation I would have cleaner references, but I controlled a bit on the supposition by picking P90 vs avg to give the other side the statistical advantage.
- ghaff 3y agoI think we'll have to see what the demand for living in big/dense cities looks like in light of at least somewhat reduced demand for living there because of employment. Certainly, there's some demand--especially among younger people in the college-educated demographic. But it's less obvious what tradeoffs people make in general to the degree that employment isn't part of the equation. I certainly never lived in a city when my company was located well outside.
- bilbo0s 3y agoJust, Devil’s Advocate. But the whole reason we’re even having the discussion is because of the evidence that more people are remote working. So I’m assuming we’re talking about people who might have to go to their office at max two or three days a week in the extreme cases? Not sure how that will create enough of a market drain to make NYC, Boston, or San Fran living affordable? I think the suggestion to reclaim business districts is the only rational way forward with any kind of chance of lowering prices. There just don’t seem to be enough people willing to live outside the city to bring down prices. If anything, everything price-wise points to market demand increasing.
- ghaff 3y ago2-3 days/week isn't daily but still qualifies as pretty frequent. From first-hand experience, I still don't want more than an hour commute. Of course, I don't need to live right in the city for that but, especially in the absence of a good commuter rail system (which those specific cities have to at least some degree), you can't move that far out.
- xapata 3y agoDepends what "in a city" means. Some people might say I live in the 'burbs, but my postal address still has the city's name in it.
- throwaway2037 3y agoWhat city? It is probably not very dense.
- emodendroket 3y agoIt's too crowded, nobody wants to go there anymore.
- ramraj07 3y agoI mean at some point do People stop and think, “maybe not everyone thinks like me?” Some people like crowds. Crowds are fun. Parties are fun. Food is fun. Community is fun. Or not. It’s great we have freedom to choose.
- emodendroket 3y agoSometimes I wonder, and then I look and see that people vastly underreport how dense/urban the areas they live in are and I feel that maybe many of the people claiming to feel so different are not being sincere.
- ramraj07 3y agoSometimes I wonder, people say they don’t like crowds but are still not living in the wilderness and I feel that maybe many of the people claiming to feel so different are not being sincere.
- emodendroket 3y agoIf you conceive of living in a city as only being in the middle of Manhattan or Shinjuku or wherever then yes I guess what you're saying makes sense, not everyone wants that.
- onion2k 3y agoI would argue that the prices reflect at least an incredibly persistent demand to live in those cities. Decreasing demand for an asset that has a fixed cost to the supplier (mortgage payments) pushes up prices just as much as increasing demand.
- mountainb 3y agoA lot of that demand is for the house/apartment as an investment vehicle or for the idle rich for a party pad. Alternatively, it is a place for people directly or indirectly on welfare of some kind to be funneled to. Those two uses have become increasingly more prominent in US cities. You have to be addled in some way to think these cities are for middle class people, which is why many of them have seen historically massive waves of middle class outmigration in recent years. Is an American city for you? Are you a( indigent; b( a literal aristocrat or rich enough to be one; or c( a "financial domination" enjoyer who desires to give everything they earn to some combination of landlords and governments when you are not giving all your time to your boss? If you answered yes to any of the above, an American city is for you. If you are a working stiff, the city doesn't want you anyway.
- actionablefiber 3y agoThis take does not square in the slightest with my actual experience in the DC area. I make a middle class income, pay a fairly modest rent, and have an active social life and tons of hobbies that are enabled by the trappings of city living - density of educated people, easy mobility on a bike, a wealth of pleasant public spaces.