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Languages are subject Metcalfe's Law. In the long run - let's say a thousand years - it's likely that the majority of humans will speak a single language. And t
by stickfigure 3y ago
Languages are subject Metcalfe's Law. In the long run - let's say a thousand years - it's likely that the majority of humans will speak a single language. And that language will most likely be derived from English.
The only thing that kept languages separate, historically, was isolation. The internet has fixed that. If you want to publish content to the widest audience, you publish in English. If you want to consume that knowledge, you'd better understand English. The network effect is powerful and English has a substantial lead.
Maybe it's the seed planted by British empire. Maybe it's the fact that English fits into 7-bit ascii. Maybe it's the fact that English is already a hodge-podge of germanic and romance languages. Maybe it has something to do with English readily adopting neologisms from other languages. Whatever the historical reasons, if right this second you put a random group of people from different non-English-speaking countries together, they're probably going to talk to each other in English.
So yeah, this problem - if you think it's a problem - is going to get worse over time. But there's nothing you can do about it in the long run.
- Ambix 3y agoFrom what I know nobody in China cares about English and that's a nation like 2-3x bigger than all population of English-speaking countries :) Can't see a demise of Chinese even after 1,000 years. As well other languages with big enough user base (I'm not speaking about smallish European countries)
- Levitz 3y agoChina is so large that it can afford to ignore other languages, it's also important enough in the global economy that it can get other people to learn Chinese in order to deal with them rather than doing things the other way around. I think the point stands that the more time passes, the more interconnected the world is, the more English becomes beneficial. If the great chinese firewall fell today, millions of Chinese citizens would start leaning more and more English and using it more, odds are that the same wouldn't happen the other way around.
- stickfigure 3y agoThe important metric is not "how many people live in English-speaking countries". The important metric is "how many people speak English". There are several times more non-native English speakers than native English speakers. Mandarin doesn't seem to be very popular beyond native speakers, and the Chinese population is shrinking. I wouldn't bet on it in a race for the next Lingua Franca. Though I can imagine a Firefly-like future with Mandarin words mixed in with English.
- fooker 3y ago1000 years ago, following this idea it would have been Arabic. 2000 years ago, it would have been Sanskrit. Predicting something 1000 years into the future is tricky business. It takes one calamity/war/etc to tilt the balance. If Yellowstone erupts in 200 years, it's unlikely English would remain the dominant language. Maybe Mandarin, who knows.
- skeaker 3y agoThings are different enough this time what with the technology boom and the internet and everything that I don't think those are entirely fair comparisons. That said, you're still totally correct that trying to predict the world a thousand years from now is pretty much pointless.
- stickfigure 3y agoA thousand years ago human populations were memetically isolated by geography. That changed somewhat with the printing press, but the internet puts us all in the same meme sphere. There are only 330 million English speakers in the United States, of the 1.5-2 billion worldwide. Yellowstone could kill everyone in North America and English would still be the most common language on Earth.
- fooker 3y agoThe amount of new movies, literature, and similar cultural artifacts matter here, not the absolute number of people who understand a language right now. Language comprehension stats can change in as little as one generation.
- Levitz 3y agoHow in the world have I never heard of Metcalfe's Law related to social media?