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Sure, I was being a bit flippant. The world is different in many ways, including more interdependence between Chinese and Taiwanese economies. Without getting t

Sure, I was being a bit flippant. The world is different in many ways, including more interdependence between Chinese and Taiwanese economies. Without getting too deep into it, the issue mostly comes down to whether the US decides to intervene. Everybody suffers massively if there's hot war in the strait. The main point is that unless supply chains are unwound from both countries, it doesn't matter that much where you put a new screen factory.

melling 3y ago
Of course it matters… It’s completely absurd to think it doesn’t matter …or are you being flippant again. I don’t have time to burn so say what you mean. If you really don’t understand, I can explain the obvious advantages to not placing a factory in a potential war zone. Then there’s the other danger… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-destroy-taiwans-semiconductor-factories-172312987.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-destroy-taiwans-semiconduc... The US could not intervene other than destroying all the semiconductor factories.
- sampullman 3y ago
  I'm not being flippant, and I think my meaning is clear. You're avoiding the original point, which is that if the majority of your factories are already in a potential war zone, the risk calculation doesn't change by adding another. What do you think happens to Honhai's Chinese facilities during this hypothetical invasion? Arguing over US strategic ambiguity is probably too off topic for this thread. I live in Taiwan, so I guess I've put my money where my mouth is.
  - melling 3y ago
    All? The problem is being addressed. TSMC is building a second factory in the US, for example. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/06/tsmc-to-up-arizona-investment-to-40-billion-with-second-semiconductor-chip-plant.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/06/tsmc-to-up-arizona-investmen... “Since the beginning of the 2020s, TSMC has expanded its operations outside of the island of Taiwan, opening new fabs in Japan and the United States, with further plans for expansion into Germany” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC#:~:text=Four%20200%20mm%20wafer%20fabs,Fab%2011%20(Camas%2C%20Washington) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC#:~:text=Four%20200%20mm%2... More fabs coming to the US too: https://www.tomshardware.com/news/new-us-fabs-everything-we-know https://www.tomshardware.com/news/new-us-fabs-everything-we-... Now, would building the only plant that makes your displays in a potential war zone increase your risk? Common sense is all you need to answer the question.
    - sampullman 3y ago
      majority != all, and my argument is based on the idea that: (1) Invasion is very unlikely (2) If there is an invasion, it's very likely that the US and Japan have something to say about it. Anyway, I wonder if there's other reasons for it to be in Taiwan. The article isn't very substantive, but it links to another one that says: "European company ams OSRAM will be the primary supplier of microLED chips for Apple, but there is potential for Taiwanese suppliers like Epistar to become additional suppliers of microLED chips by 2026-2027..." Maybe there are some partnerships aside from TSMC that are driving the decision. The article says the process will be developed in Longtan (Taoyuan), which happens to be where at least one other company is setting up microLED production: https://www.microled-info.com/tags/auo https://www.microled-info.com/tags/auo
      - melling 3y ago
        “ (1) Invasion is very unlikely” Says some person on the Internet. “(2)...” But if that person is wrong, they believe… Remember when Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons because it thought they would be protected? https://www.npr.org/2022/02/21/1082124528/ukraine-russia-putin-invasion https://www.npr.org/2022/02/21/1082124528/ukraine-russia-put... Ukraine had the third largest nuclear weapons arsenal. Now they are fighting for survival. What the US, and how much the US, will do, with respect to Taiwan depends on politicians in Washington D.C., public sentiment, etc. and that changes over time.

melling 3y ago

Of course it matters… It’s completely absurd to think it doesn’t matter …or are you being flippant again. I don’t have time to burn so say what you mean. If you really don’t understand, I can explain the obvious advantages to not placing a factory in a potential war zone. Then there’s the other danger… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-destroy-taiwans-semiconductor-factories-172312987.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-destroy-taiwans-semiconduc... The US could not intervene other than destroying all the semiconductor factories.

sampullman 3y ago
I'm not being flippant, and I think my meaning is clear. You're avoiding the original point, which is that if the majority of your factories are already in a potential war zone, the risk calculation doesn't change by adding another. What do you think happens to Honhai's Chinese facilities during this hypothetical invasion? Arguing over US strategic ambiguity is probably too off topic for this thread. I live in Taiwan, so I guess I've put my money where my mouth is.
- melling 3y ago
  All? The problem is being addressed. TSMC is building a second factory in the US, for example. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/06/tsmc-to-up-arizona-investment-to-40-billion-with-second-semiconductor-chip-plant.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/06/tsmc-to-up-arizona-investmen... “Since the beginning of the 2020s, TSMC has expanded its operations outside of the island of Taiwan, opening new fabs in Japan and the United States, with further plans for expansion into Germany” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC#:~:text=Four%20200%20mm%20wafer%20fabs,Fab%2011%20(Camas%2C%20Washington) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC#:~:text=Four%20200%20mm%2... More fabs coming to the US too: https://www.tomshardware.com/news/new-us-fabs-everything-we-know https://www.tomshardware.com/news/new-us-fabs-everything-we-... Now, would building the only plant that makes your displays in a potential war zone increase your risk? Common sense is all you need to answer the question.
  - sampullman 3y ago
    majority != all, and my argument is based on the idea that: (1) Invasion is very unlikely (2) If there is an invasion, it's very likely that the US and Japan have something to say about it. Anyway, I wonder if there's other reasons for it to be in Taiwan. The article isn't very substantive, but it links to another one that says: "European company ams OSRAM will be the primary supplier of microLED chips for Apple, but there is potential for Taiwanese suppliers like Epistar to become additional suppliers of microLED chips by 2026-2027..." Maybe there are some partnerships aside from TSMC that are driving the decision. The article says the process will be developed in Longtan (Taoyuan), which happens to be where at least one other company is setting up microLED production: https://www.microled-info.com/tags/auo https://www.microled-info.com/tags/auo
    - melling 3y ago
      “ (1) Invasion is very unlikely” Says some person on the Internet. “(2)...” But if that person is wrong, they believe… Remember when Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons because it thought they would be protected? https://www.npr.org/2022/02/21/1082124528/ukraine-russia-putin-invasion https://www.npr.org/2022/02/21/1082124528/ukraine-russia-put... Ukraine had the third largest nuclear weapons arsenal. Now they are fighting for survival. What the US, and how much the US, will do, with respect to Taiwan depends on politicians in Washington D.C., public sentiment, etc. and that changes over time.