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The bi-furcation of programmer careers will intensify. Think of it like hedge fund traders vs stay-at-home retail traders. The closer you are to the core AI s

The bi-furcation of programmer careers will intensify. Think of it like hedge fund traders vs stay-at-home retail traders. The closer you are to the core AI stack, the more you will get paid - kind of like hedgefund traders. If you are just copy pasting ChatGPT mostly, then you will get disintermediated at some point.

greatpostman 3y ago
I disagree with this as well. The number of people legitimately working on LLMs right now is probably only in the hundreds. One or a few huge models will do all the programming automation. But yes, high paying developer jobs will exist. The rest will not pay as well, and with much worse job security. This field is going to change very fast
- cj 3y ago
  > This field is going to change very fast It will be slowed by bureaucracy. Example: To be SOC 2 compliant, you need to have change management controls in place. How do humans manage change management if an AI is doing everything for the humans? Would humans still be doing code reviews? (AI might be so great where code reviews are obsolete, but compliance / regulations may still require humans in the loop) There's also a -huge- subset of software that is extremely mission critical or heavily regulated by compliance where all current compliance frameworks assume there's a human in the loop. Ripping the human out of the loop would require re-writing the regulations / standards (which I guess AI could help with) but I think the change will come slower than you're predicting. Change won't be slower because of any technological barrier necessarily (this is debatable), but because it will absolutely take a very long time for humans to fully trust AI and its output. The era we're in currently feels like where Tesla was a few years ago. Really cool concepts and proof that self-driving "works", but there are so many edge cases which limit its complete roll-out and makes the original promise of "everything will be self driving in 5 years" seemingly achievable, but 5 years later it hasn't been achieved, and remains simply an assistive technology with many limitations.
  - nextworddev 3y ago
    Yes - but here's the catch. Orgs that are agile and unbothered by middle managers will thrive by adopting change, while the slow ones will lose competitive edge. Eventually even the slow ones will have to adopt change.
  - greatpostman 3y ago
    There’s is way too much money to be made in this for beauracracy to get in the way.

greatpostman 3y ago

I disagree with this as well. The number of people legitimately working on LLMs right now is probably only in the hundreds. One or a few huge models will do all the programming automation. But yes, high paying developer jobs will exist. The rest will not pay as well, and with much worse job security. This field is going to change very fast

cj 3y ago
> This field is going to change very fast It will be slowed by bureaucracy. Example: To be SOC 2 compliant, you need to have change management controls in place. How do humans manage change management if an AI is doing everything for the humans? Would humans still be doing code reviews? (AI might be so great where code reviews are obsolete, but compliance / regulations may still require humans in the loop) There's also a -huge- subset of software that is extremely mission critical or heavily regulated by compliance where all current compliance frameworks assume there's a human in the loop. Ripping the human out of the loop would require re-writing the regulations / standards (which I guess AI could help with) but I think the change will come slower than you're predicting. Change won't be slower because of any technological barrier necessarily (this is debatable), but because it will absolutely take a very long time for humans to fully trust AI and its output. The era we're in currently feels like where Tesla was a few years ago. Really cool concepts and proof that self-driving "works", but there are so many edge cases which limit its complete roll-out and makes the original promise of "everything will be self driving in 5 years" seemingly achievable, but 5 years later it hasn't been achieved, and remains simply an assistive technology with many limitations.
- nextworddev 3y ago
  Yes - but here's the catch. Orgs that are agile and unbothered by middle managers will thrive by adopting change, while the slow ones will lose competitive edge. Eventually even the slow ones will have to adopt change.
- greatpostman 3y ago
  There’s is way too much money to be made in this for beauracracy to get in the way.