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> specially now that remote work is becoming a commonly available option. I said this somewhere else in the thread but repeating here - remote work is only a s

> specially now that remote work is becoming a commonly available option. I said this somewhere else in the thread but repeating here - remote work is only a short term solution and a big long term threat. Once all the tools are processes are established to deal with remote work, your job will be instantly shipped to a cheaper country - Canada, Latin America, Eastern Europe or India. American workers should realize that remote work is not going to be like 2020-21 forever. Shareholder class is ruthless.

zeroonetwothree 3y ago
Remote work has been the reality for years now and yet this hasn’t happened. If anything it’s the opposite and companies are focusing on more in person workers.
- RestlessMind 3y ago
  It hasn't really been a reality the way it is today. During covid, we were forced to implement norms and tools for remote working (like Zoom). Also, we learned about replacing an expensive worker for a cheaper one one at a time. Earlier, there used to be entire teams in some remote location, so it was similar to having 2 islands (one large, one small) with a bridge which was crossed may be once or twice a year during annual trips to HQ. Now with one-new-person-at-a-time, teams don't lose productivity but over time, American workers are replaced with cheaper ones. Source: seeing it myself in my current company. Also remembers: shareholder class is ruthless. If I can see this, they are seeing and acting on it as well.
  - themoonisachees 3y ago
    Sure, it makes sense but that relocation is happening with or without me and i'd rather have a remote job and spend time with my family instead of commuting. This is basically asking "would you rather eat cake now and have your cake taken away later or choose not to eat the cake that's just sitting there and have it taken away later regarless?". I choose to eat the cake however ephemeral it may be.
    - RestlessMind 3y ago
      Or you can delay the inevitable by making it hard to transition to remote. You can contribute in ways big and small. Have that cake supply flowing for a few more decades. And if enough people resist and companies give up on fully remote, you don't even have to worry about losing those cakes.
  - unity1001 3y ago
    > It hasn't really been a reality the way it is today Holy hell you seem to be spamming this around. It may not have been a reality for you and the company that you work for. It has been a reality for a lot of people and none of the 'new factors' that you used in your comments to argue that 'this time it is different' are actually new. There isnt anything new about this remote work. A lot of companies were already doing it way before, including outsourcing overseas. The new situation and trends do not change that - in fact, it makes it easier for American devs to compete by avoiding living in expensive metropolises like SF and NY. Which is helpful to those who live in such metropolises too since it would put a downward pressure on the price of everything there. Something which the real estate sector would definitely hate, I gather. Hence the pressure on the major corporations regarding RTO from that industry and the politicians they back...
jacobkg 3y ago
Indeed. Not sure why more US-based engineers that are staunchly pro remote work don’t seem concerned about this.
- RestlessMind 3y ago
  I think a lot of workers do see this. My suspicion is that the current vocal minority is comprised of: truly smart people (10x developers) who will be irreplaceable and liked the comfort of remote work during covid, foreign workers for whom this is a golden opportunity, useful idiots who think 2020-21 is going to be the norm with 150-200K packages out of school and 1M TC for 6 years of experience.
  - valar_m 3y ago
    What do you suggest that a "useful idiot" like myself should do? I read your other comments, and all I see are doomsday predictions about us losing our jobs. In another comment you said: > Once all the tools are processes are established to deal with remote work, our job will be instantly shipped to a cheaper country What tools and processes do you think are coming that will going to make this happen? Like a better version of Zoom or something?
    - RestlessMind 3y ago
      > What do you suggest that a "useful idiot" like myself should do? Seek a cluster of companies which have a culture based on in-office work. They are not going to change overnight and will be the last ones to replace American workforce with foreign ones. > all I see are doomsday predictions I agree and maybe that's the psychological effect of seeing multiple rounds of layoffs in the last year with new headcount only in foreign locales. Also, because when I look at how American manufacturing sector declined due to outsourcing, how China rose to prominence, how that enriched the upper class but shredded the working class, how a demagogue like Trump tapped into their resentment to gain incredible political power - it is very difficult to not connect the dots with what is happening now. I will be extremely happy if my predictions are proven wrong.
88913527 3y ago
If the consumer can't afford the widgets produced by the companies owned by the shareholder class, there goes the revenue.
- RestlessMind 3y ago
  Tell me again how that worked out for our manufacturing sector. Walmarts thrived, workers are poor, governments picked up the tab for their workers' safety nets, "manufacturing jobs" became a boogeyman for the successful presidential bid by Trump. That's the future we will be repeating on steroids by gutting one of the remaining ladder to upper middle class.
dv_dt 3y ago
I see far more job remote reqs specifying US only, or time zone +/- n hrs limited than worldwide reqs.
- RestlessMind 3y ago
  Timezones cover Canada and Latin America. That's where most of our new hires are coming from.
  - dv_dt 3y ago
    Good point on the timezones. Though when they say US only, I presume that they're not prepared to do international payroll even in the same timezone.
smileysteve 3y ago
Can remote work be like 2012-2022 forever though?
cwp 3y ago
Yes and no. They tried that in the 90s and it didn't work out. It turns out timezones, language and culture matter. So yes, remote work will mean that US white collar workers will have to compete with workers in other countries, but that's not impossible. We may find that yes, that drags down compensation in the US, but it also pulls up compensation in the rest of the world, and there's just a wider range, more developers available in general and more coding happens as software continues to eat the world. How AI figure into this is anybody's guess - don't believe anyone who claims to know.
- RestlessMind 3y ago
  > that drags down compensation in the US, but it also pulls up compensation in the rest of the world, and there's just a wider range, more developers available in general Agreed. And my point is that is horrible for American middle class, great for American shareholder class and great for software industry in cheaper places. Just like it was for manufacturing.
  - cwp 3y ago
    I guess what I'm saying is that I don't think American compensation will go down much, and the to extent that it does, it's because more people can work good jobs that were only available in the top-tier cities before. That is, most people in Michigan won't get SF salaries, but they won't have SF expenses either, and overall they'll be fine. They'll pull the average down, but it won't be horrible for anyone.
edgyquant 3y ago
The only reason the shareholder class hasn’t been gutted is that the people you’re saying they’ll lay off are on their side. Both parties have large minorities just begging for a popular directive to do so.

zeroonetwothree 3y ago

Remote work has been the reality for years now and yet this hasn’t happened. If anything it’s the opposite and companies are focusing on more in person workers.

RestlessMind 3y ago
It hasn't really been a reality the way it is today. During covid, we were forced to implement norms and tools for remote working (like Zoom). Also, we learned about replacing an expensive worker for a cheaper one one at a time. Earlier, there used to be entire teams in some remote location, so it was similar to having 2 islands (one large, one small) with a bridge which was crossed may be once or twice a year during annual trips to HQ. Now with one-new-person-at-a-time, teams don't lose productivity but over time, American workers are replaced with cheaper ones. Source: seeing it myself in my current company. Also remembers: shareholder class is ruthless. If I can see this, they are seeing and acting on it as well.
- themoonisachees 3y ago
  Sure, it makes sense but that relocation is happening with or without me and i'd rather have a remote job and spend time with my family instead of commuting. This is basically asking "would you rather eat cake now and have your cake taken away later or choose not to eat the cake that's just sitting there and have it taken away later regarless?". I choose to eat the cake however ephemeral it may be.
  - RestlessMind 3y ago
    Or you can delay the inevitable by making it hard to transition to remote. You can contribute in ways big and small. Have that cake supply flowing for a few more decades. And if enough people resist and companies give up on fully remote, you don't even have to worry about losing those cakes.
- unity1001 3y ago
  > It hasn't really been a reality the way it is today Holy hell you seem to be spamming this around. It may not have been a reality for you and the company that you work for. It has been a reality for a lot of people and none of the 'new factors' that you used in your comments to argue that 'this time it is different' are actually new. There isnt anything new about this remote work. A lot of companies were already doing it way before, including outsourcing overseas. The new situation and trends do not change that - in fact, it makes it easier for American devs to compete by avoiding living in expensive metropolises like SF and NY. Which is helpful to those who live in such metropolises too since it would put a downward pressure on the price of everything there. Something which the real estate sector would definitely hate, I gather. Hence the pressure on the major corporations regarding RTO from that industry and the politicians they back...

jacobkg 3y ago

Indeed. Not sure why more US-based engineers that are staunchly pro remote work don’t seem concerned about this.

RestlessMind 3y ago
I think a lot of workers do see this. My suspicion is that the current vocal minority is comprised of: truly smart people (10x developers) who will be irreplaceable and liked the comfort of remote work during covid, foreign workers for whom this is a golden opportunity, useful idiots who think 2020-21 is going to be the norm with 150-200K packages out of school and 1M TC for 6 years of experience.
- valar_m 3y ago
  What do you suggest that a "useful idiot" like myself should do? I read your other comments, and all I see are doomsday predictions about us losing our jobs. In another comment you said: > Once all the tools are processes are established to deal with remote work, our job will be instantly shipped to a cheaper country What tools and processes do you think are coming that will going to make this happen? Like a better version of Zoom or something?
  - RestlessMind 3y ago
    > What do you suggest that a "useful idiot" like myself should do? Seek a cluster of companies which have a culture based on in-office work. They are not going to change overnight and will be the last ones to replace American workforce with foreign ones. > all I see are doomsday predictions I agree and maybe that's the psychological effect of seeing multiple rounds of layoffs in the last year with new headcount only in foreign locales. Also, because when I look at how American manufacturing sector declined due to outsourcing, how China rose to prominence, how that enriched the upper class but shredded the working class, how a demagogue like Trump tapped into their resentment to gain incredible political power - it is very difficult to not connect the dots with what is happening now. I will be extremely happy if my predictions are proven wrong.

88913527 3y ago

If the consumer can't afford the widgets produced by the companies owned by the shareholder class, there goes the revenue.

RestlessMind 3y ago
Tell me again how that worked out for our manufacturing sector. Walmarts thrived, workers are poor, governments picked up the tab for their workers' safety nets, "manufacturing jobs" became a boogeyman for the successful presidential bid by Trump. That's the future we will be repeating on steroids by gutting one of the remaining ladder to upper middle class.

dv_dt 3y ago

I see far more job remote reqs specifying US only, or time zone +/- n hrs limited than worldwide reqs.

RestlessMind 3y ago
Timezones cover Canada and Latin America. That's where most of our new hires are coming from.
- dv_dt 3y ago
  Good point on the timezones. Though when they say US only, I presume that they're not prepared to do international payroll even in the same timezone.

smileysteve 3y ago

Can remote work be like 2012-2022 forever though?

cwp 3y ago

Yes and no. They tried that in the 90s and it didn't work out. It turns out timezones, language and culture matter. So yes, remote work will mean that US white collar workers will have to compete with workers in other countries, but that's not impossible. We may find that yes, that drags down compensation in the US, but it also pulls up compensation in the rest of the world, and there's just a wider range, more developers available in general and more coding happens as software continues to eat the world. How AI figure into this is anybody's guess - don't believe anyone who claims to know.

RestlessMind 3y ago
> that drags down compensation in the US, but it also pulls up compensation in the rest of the world, and there's just a wider range, more developers available in general Agreed. And my point is that is horrible for American middle class, great for American shareholder class and great for software industry in cheaper places. Just like it was for manufacturing.
- cwp 3y ago
  I guess what I'm saying is that I don't think American compensation will go down much, and the to extent that it does, it's because more people can work good jobs that were only available in the top-tier cities before. That is, most people in Michigan won't get SF salaries, but they won't have SF expenses either, and overall they'll be fine. They'll pull the average down, but it won't be horrible for anyone.

edgyquant 3y ago

The only reason the shareholder class hasn’t been gutted is that the people you’re saying they’ll lay off are on their side. Both parties have large minorities just begging for a popular directive to do so.