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> But they find that the second effect predominates: “Working from home results in an absolute reduction of 14.7 percentage points in the annualized probability

> But they find that the second effect predominates: “Working from home results in an absolute reduction of 14.7 percentage points in the annualized probability of an alert (misconduct report) per trading employee.” Well, then either WFH decreases risk of committing crimes... or they still happen just as much and it increases the chance they'll go undetected? A bit worrying that TFA doesn't discuss this, though I haven't read through to the the study itself.

AmericanChopper 3y ago
It could just reduce work, and crime as a second order effect, as crime still takes work. But I would theorise that it could decrease crime because it increases the likelihood of getting caught. Discussing a criminal conspiracy is much easier to do in person rather than over Teams, or any other communication software that leaves a record.
- smcl 3y ago
  I mean while we're speculating we might as well throw in the other possibilities - like working from home might make you happier, resent your job less and less likely to try to fuck over your employer. In reality we don't know, but I don't think we need to assume it's due to lower productivity or increased sneakiness.
  - flakeoil 3y ago
    Trader crimes are not so much about screwing the employer. It's often aligned with the incentives of the employer i.e. make as much money as possible. The crime is more in that they use unlawful methods (or take on too much risk) to earn money for their employer and thus themselves via bonuses (and status, promotions etc).
    - spacebanana7 3y ago
      > Trader crimes are not so much about screwing the employer. It's often aligned with the incentives of the employer i.e. make as much money as possible. This really isn't the case, at least for large banks. Bank boards and CEOs would much rather have lower trading performance than get pulled up by regulators. It's very difficult for a bank CEO to get fired for being to cautious and regulator friendly. Mediocre financial results can always be excused in earrings calls with de-risking or social responsibility and few shareholders are interested in the political fallout of publicly disagreeing with that.
- bena 3y ago
  Or that instead of sitting at your computer for another 4 hours, once you're done with your work, you're done. Yes, you could warm the seat for another couple of hours once you've finished your actual work. You could do that. On the other hand, Tears of the Kingdom just came out.
dpflan 3y ago
Maybe it feels guiltier to commit crimes within one’s home, even perhaps around one’s children or family while working at home (or even just photos and other stimuli that evoke emotions and memories of family or even just self.)
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- wanttocomment 3y ago
  For that to explain the gap I think you would have to consider how many of those employees who get written up live with their families vs more detached living arrangements. With that consideration, it seems unlikely that change alone could make up 15% for the overall group.
  - dpflan 3y ago
    Indeed, hence the word “maybe”
- scott_w 3y ago
  > or they still happen just as much and it increases the chance they'll go undetected? What you said doesn't relate to this from the OP. First up, the article should at least address this question before we can consider your supposition.
  - dpflan 3y ago
    Cool, thanks.
JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> they still happen just as much and it increases the chance they'll go undetected I would assume it’s a decrease in criminality. Compliance-caught and self-reported violations eclipse tattle-told ones. (Questioning the stability of this ratio through WFH is valid.) Being at home reduces the risk of the last. But it drastically increases the risk of the first, given the lack of unmonitorable live conversations. I suppose one could measure markets for signs of statistically-detectable fudging? This would only cover a small set of trading violations, however.
bryanrasmussen 3y ago
maybe they are also less productive working from home - they get less done overall, and less crimes.
- wanttocomment 3y ago
  That was my guess. A 14% reduction in efficiency or perhaps just hours worked sounds about right.
cookieperson 3y ago
it's almost like WFH helps insulate employees from toxic cultures. Making otherwise reasonable people feel less pressure to be unreasonable.
- skrebbel 3y ago
  Yeah cause you can't possibly have a toxic culture on Slack right
  - cookieperson 3y ago
    Sure you can but there's less immediate pressure from management and peers to do stupid and or criminal things. You can't just leave a meeting room without getting fired. You can totally take ten minutes to think of a response and an excuse for the delay on slack. Also... People are less inclined to ask people to commit crimes via text then they are via voice in their place of business. You can imagine why.
  - mecha_ghidorah 3y ago
    You can, but that's a paper trail. It's harder to push people into doing something criminal over email and slack without being self incriminating
  - oblio 3y ago
    The magnitude of intensity you get on Slack is 100x less that what you'd experience face to face.
sheepscreek 3y ago
Or..the kind of trader that typically commits fraud/misconduct prefers working from their office station/trading desk?

AmericanChopper 3y ago

It could just reduce work, and crime as a second order effect, as crime still takes work. But I would theorise that it could decrease crime because it increases the likelihood of getting caught. Discussing a criminal conspiracy is much easier to do in person rather than over Teams, or any other communication software that leaves a record.

smcl 3y ago
I mean while we're speculating we might as well throw in the other possibilities - like working from home might make you happier, resent your job less and less likely to try to fuck over your employer. In reality we don't know, but I don't think we need to assume it's due to lower productivity or increased sneakiness.
- flakeoil 3y ago
  Trader crimes are not so much about screwing the employer. It's often aligned with the incentives of the employer i.e. make as much money as possible. The crime is more in that they use unlawful methods (or take on too much risk) to earn money for their employer and thus themselves via bonuses (and status, promotions etc).
  - spacebanana7 3y ago
    > Trader crimes are not so much about screwing the employer. It's often aligned with the incentives of the employer i.e. make as much money as possible. This really isn't the case, at least for large banks. Bank boards and CEOs would much rather have lower trading performance than get pulled up by regulators. It's very difficult for a bank CEO to get fired for being to cautious and regulator friendly. Mediocre financial results can always be excused in earrings calls with de-risking or social responsibility and few shareholders are interested in the political fallout of publicly disagreeing with that.
bena 3y ago
Or that instead of sitting at your computer for another 4 hours, once you're done with your work, you're done. Yes, you could warm the seat for another couple of hours once you've finished your actual work. You could do that. On the other hand, Tears of the Kingdom just came out.

dpflan 3y ago

Maybe it feels guiltier to commit crimes within one’s home, even perhaps around one’s children or family while working at home (or even just photos and other stimuli that evoke emotions and memories of family or even just self.)

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
wanttocomment 3y ago
For that to explain the gap I think you would have to consider how many of those employees who get written up live with their families vs more detached living arrangements. With that consideration, it seems unlikely that change alone could make up 15% for the overall group.
- dpflan 3y ago
  Indeed, hence the word “maybe”
scott_w 3y ago
> or they still happen just as much and it increases the chance they'll go undetected? What you said doesn't relate to this from the OP. First up, the article should at least address this question before we can consider your supposition.
- dpflan 3y ago
  Cool, thanks.

JumpCrisscross 3y ago

> they still happen just as much and it increases the chance they'll go undetected I would assume it’s a decrease in criminality. Compliance-caught and self-reported violations eclipse tattle-told ones. (Questioning the stability of this ratio through WFH is valid.) Being at home reduces the risk of the last. But it drastically increases the risk of the first, given the lack of unmonitorable live conversations. I suppose one could measure markets for signs of statistically-detectable fudging? This would only cover a small set of trading violations, however.

bryanrasmussen 3y ago

maybe they are also less productive working from home - they get less done overall, and less crimes.

wanttocomment 3y ago
That was my guess. A 14% reduction in efficiency or perhaps just hours worked sounds about right.

cookieperson 3y ago

it's almost like WFH helps insulate employees from toxic cultures. Making otherwise reasonable people feel less pressure to be unreasonable.

skrebbel 3y ago
Yeah cause you can't possibly have a toxic culture on Slack right
- cookieperson 3y ago
  Sure you can but there's less immediate pressure from management and peers to do stupid and or criminal things. You can't just leave a meeting room without getting fired. You can totally take ten minutes to think of a response and an excuse for the delay on slack. Also... People are less inclined to ask people to commit crimes via text then they are via voice in their place of business. You can imagine why.
- mecha_ghidorah 3y ago
  You can, but that's a paper trail. It's harder to push people into doing something criminal over email and slack without being self incriminating
- oblio 3y ago
  The magnitude of intensity you get on Slack is 100x less that what you'd experience face to face.

sheepscreek 3y ago

Or..the kind of trader that typically commits fraud/misconduct prefers working from their office station/trading desk?