6 ms·

All I know is that computer programming is qualitatively an entirely different thing than it was six months ago, different than it has ever been in the decades

All I know is that computer programming is qualitatively an entirely different thing than it was six months ago, different than it has ever been in the decades preceding. Programmers that never had to think about "what" to do are are just implementation machines are going to be hurt by this. Programmers that have to think hard about strategy, design, specification are about to be massively more productive. The ability to clearly communicate specifications; "what to do"; is more valuable than ever because it's the one way to unlock massive productivity gains.

ChatGTP 3y ago
Won’t this be actually bad for the economy ? I’m personally not spending as much because I’m not clear if I’ll have a job when ChatGPT-5 comes out. I’d say many people are doing similar things ? Less jobs is not necessarily a good thing ?
- mikea1 3y ago
  > Less jobs is not necessarily a good thing ? The rollout of the lightbulb significantly reduced the economic potential of candlemakers, but it improved the quality of life for society overall. So, whether technological advancement is a "good thing" depends on which group you are in: the one with obsolete skills or the one that benefits from cheaper and/or better goods and services. Either way, the overall economy benefits from creative destruction. [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_destruction https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_destruction
- SoftTalker 3y ago
  Not having to pay developers 6-figure salaries might be a good thing in the big picture.
  - epicureanideal 3y ago
    Or ideally, we can keep making 6-figure salaries, but be able to accomplish more in the same number of hours.
MuffinFlavored 3y ago
> Programmers that never had to think about "what" to do are are just implementation machines are going to be hurt by this what is the most popular low-code/no-code solution that i could bring into an enterprise organization that can: * read/write to/from a database * read/write to/from a message queue * read/write to/from a cache * make HTTP API calls and do light ETL/logic on the request/response bodies * OutSystems: This is a popular choice for enterprise organizations, as it provides robust low-code development capabilities. It supports integration with databases, message queues, and caches. It also allows developers to make HTTP API calls and perform light ETL operations. * Mendix: Another popular choice for enterprise-level applications. It offers a wide range of features, including database integration, message queue handling, cache interaction, and HTTP API calls. * Microsoft Power Apps: This platform is part of the Microsoft Power Platform, which also includes Power BI for data visualization and Power Automate for process automation. It supports data integration, including reading and writing to databases, and can make HTTP API calls. * Appian: This is a low-code platform that allows the creation of apps that can integrate with databases and make HTTP API calls. It may require additional configuration or use of additional services for interaction with message queues and caches. * Zoho Creator: Zoho Creator is a low-code application development platform that allows users to create custom applications with minimal coding. It can integrate with databases and make HTTP API calls, but may not natively support interaction with message queues and caches. These aren't new and I'm still employed
- saiya-jin 3y ago
  Yeah all this doomsday prophets for software engineers is just situation that keeps repeating itself. I've seen OK code generation around 2006. So what if it got a bit better? That's not how entire projects get done, code part is rather miniscule in most organizations that aren't single-focused startups. The less you are just a pure code monkey and nothing more, and the more you bring added value of actually managing whole software dev lifecycle the less you are replaceable (and more senior you become with all the + and -). Chasing requests from teams that couldn't care less about your projects, navigating process hell, synchronizing with global teams, evaluating various pitches and proposals, hiring, architecture design, testing team interaction/management, internal politics and so on and on. This is still software engineer territory, albeit senior one (in my massive org I am at lowest dev position, but with salary 2 levels higher, and I get to do this and much more). I've not seen even an attempt to put any dent on job market for those skillsets. If you are worried, ramp up your skills, thats what one should be doing regardless.
packetlost 3y ago
> All I know is that computer programming is qualitatively an entirely different thing than it was six months ago Citation needed. My day to day has not changed one bit, even if I'm using Copilot and ChatGPT. I get marginally faster autocomplete and a buggy template engine. This type of comment is exactly what GP means when they say "grossly overestimated."
- jimsimmons 3y ago
  Somehow all the non programmers are in full force telling actual coders how their job is changing
  - sublinear 3y ago
    This is so blindingly obvious to anyone and I can't believe it's not said enough
- fnordpiglet 3y ago
  I use ChatGPT throughout the day. I don’t find code completion very useful, but I ask questions about esoteric areas I’m unsure of, or about some numerical technique I’m trying to recall. It unblocks me faster than anything I’ve ever used and I’ve learned more about some topics in the last six months than in the last thirty years. The fact I can ask elaborative questions and get answers that are fairly deep and nuanced is remarkable. Code it emits is often specious but fairly close to usable, more than enough to open a door for me in what used to be hours of fruitless searching and reading countless stack overflow answers telling the questioner they’re asking the wrong question and answering something unrelated instead. That you guys aren’t finding the value tells me you’re using the tool wrong and likely have already decided with prejudice, because I have primary experience that once you try to figure out how it’s useful, you’ll find remarkable utility waiting. It’s ok, man. I’m sure many folks found the computer useless too.
  - packetlost 3y ago
    The quality of answers goes down dramatically the more niche your questions are. Further, while it might be helpful for "research", the answers it gives will have very wide variations of accuracy and isn't very useful for the day to day work of an actual software engineer which involves much more than just writing code. It works great if you treat it like a freshman in college who loves hearing their own voice and bullshits answers, but not great at being a fact engine. And to be clear, I didn't say that it wasn't useful. I said that it didn't change my job in any meaningful way.
irrational 3y ago
I work as a programmer for a Fortune 100 company that everyone on the planet has heard of. I have heard nothing from any other developers about using AI. The programmers are not talking about it, the company is not talking about it. I don't know if we are behind the times or if this isn't as big a thing as you are making it out to be.
- SoftTalker 3y ago
  I've been doing programming for 30+ years and having a hard time seeing how AI will help me. I have templates and scaffolds for most of my reptitive work already. I feel that I'm good enough with SQL that it would take me longer to prompt an AI to write a query than it would for me to just write it. I am open to the possibility that I'm old and set in my ways but it's been a long time since the act of writing the code has been the bottleneck in my work.
  - kylelahnakoski 3y ago
    The greatest benefit I have seen so far is using AI for composing code in unfamiliar frameworks and languages. You do not need to read the docs. It is a stackoverflow killer. If you already can speak the language, the best it can do is provide the boilerplate.
    - SoftTalker 3y ago
      I see. That makes sense. I don't compose code in unfamiliar frameworks and languages. I try as much as possible to use the frameworks and languages I know best. I got off of the treadmill of "framework of the year" chasing a while ago.
      - tunesmith 3y ago
        I think this is an example of how it's all different now though. Switching costs have all of a sudden decreased dramatically. There is less cost to picking the right tool for the job. Programmers that have the perfect set of templates and shortcuts and that can code in their chosen language like water and so therefore have no interest in switching to any other language... they're more at risk than the ones with broader experience.
nathan_compton 3y ago
I admit GPT4 is useful, and I have been using it extensively in a fair number of different projects lately. And all it does for me is save time typing. I still have to think exactly the same amount I had to before. I do think its going to improve efficiencies and there will be moderate economic effects, but I also wouldn't say programming is qualitatively a different thing. In a few years, who knows? But the main issue as I see it is that ultimately programs must interact with the real world and solve problems for which there is not an abundance of training data. It isn't that I think it is impossible to build AIs to work in those domains, but I think our current approaches might be slower getting there than the leap to GPT4 encourages us to believe.
sublinear 3y ago
Have you ever considered that "how" to do something is pretty much always several orders of magnitude more complicated than "what" to do? Wouldn't it make more sense to have LLMs replace middle management? Knowing "what" to do is way easier to predict. Even the worst programmer is far better organized than the people gathering the requirements and they have to fill in the blanks all the time. These are junior programmers who know fuck all about a business yet manage to know more about the project overnight compared to management that's been there for many years!
- tunesmith 3y ago
  My perspective is pretty much opposite yours. A really common trouble is when programmers implement a working solution to a poorly understood problem. Building a good specification is oftentimes much, much harder than implementing that specification. Maybe what you're referring to is what happens in a lot of software organizations, where the "what" is often just phrased as a poorly-thought-out, loose problem, and it's actually up to the developer to come up with the specification and the implementation at the same time. But that's not what I'm talking about. What I'm saying is that if you're good at specification, your job is about to get a whole lot easier, and therefore more valuable, by using these models.
  - sublinear 3y ago
    You're right. I appreciate this comment. This is what people come to HN for. Thanks. Fat chance finding any traction with getting devs at those orgs your just described getting traction even with the LLM backing them. People don't like to be wrong. The status quo will continue, perhaps indefinitely. I also still have my doubts that an LLM can be smarter than a fresh-out-of-college junior dev.
    - tunesmith 3y ago
      Thanks for the nice exchange. ;)
CapstanRoller 3y ago
>Programmers that never had to think about "what" to do are are just implementation machines Do such programmers even exist today? I thought the Dot Com Crash wiped out any remnants of such jobs. Every software development job now is a composite job of some sort, demanding skills and duties that were previously separated into other roles. This trend of condensing/combining roles applies to non-tech industries as well. Specialization is still demanded, too, but the predicted future of hyper-specialization where every professional exists in a nanoscopic niche never materialized. We instead got multi-specialization due to an ever-shifting and highly unreliable labor environment. This is why the job title of "GPT Prompt Engineer" is a joke, and will never actually exist.

ChatGTP 3y ago

Won’t this be actually bad for the economy ? I’m personally not spending as much because I’m not clear if I’ll have a job when ChatGPT-5 comes out. I’d say many people are doing similar things ? Less jobs is not necessarily a good thing ?

mikea1 3y ago
> Less jobs is not necessarily a good thing ? The rollout of the lightbulb significantly reduced the economic potential of candlemakers, but it improved the quality of life for society overall. So, whether technological advancement is a "good thing" depends on which group you are in: the one with obsolete skills or the one that benefits from cheaper and/or better goods and services. Either way, the overall economy benefits from creative destruction. [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_destruction https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_destruction
SoftTalker 3y ago
Not having to pay developers 6-figure salaries might be a good thing in the big picture.
- epicureanideal 3y ago
  Or ideally, we can keep making 6-figure salaries, but be able to accomplish more in the same number of hours.

MuffinFlavored 3y ago

> Programmers that never had to think about "what" to do are are just implementation machines are going to be hurt by this what is the most popular low-code/no-code solution that i could bring into an enterprise organization that can: * read/write to/from a database * read/write to/from a message queue * read/write to/from a cache * make HTTP API calls and do light ETL/logic on the request/response bodies * OutSystems: This is a popular choice for enterprise organizations, as it provides robust low-code development capabilities. It supports integration with databases, message queues, and caches. It also allows developers to make HTTP API calls and perform light ETL operations. * Mendix: Another popular choice for enterprise-level applications. It offers a wide range of features, including database integration, message queue handling, cache interaction, and HTTP API calls. * Microsoft Power Apps: This platform is part of the Microsoft Power Platform, which also includes Power BI for data visualization and Power Automate for process automation. It supports data integration, including reading and writing to databases, and can make HTTP API calls. * Appian: This is a low-code platform that allows the creation of apps that can integrate with databases and make HTTP API calls. It may require additional configuration or use of additional services for interaction with message queues and caches. * Zoho Creator: Zoho Creator is a low-code application development platform that allows users to create custom applications with minimal coding. It can integrate with databases and make HTTP API calls, but may not natively support interaction with message queues and caches. These aren't new and I'm still employed

saiya-jin 3y ago
Yeah all this doomsday prophets for software engineers is just situation that keeps repeating itself. I've seen OK code generation around 2006. So what if it got a bit better? That's not how entire projects get done, code part is rather miniscule in most organizations that aren't single-focused startups. The less you are just a pure code monkey and nothing more, and the more you bring added value of actually managing whole software dev lifecycle the less you are replaceable (and more senior you become with all the + and -). Chasing requests from teams that couldn't care less about your projects, navigating process hell, synchronizing with global teams, evaluating various pitches and proposals, hiring, architecture design, testing team interaction/management, internal politics and so on and on. This is still software engineer territory, albeit senior one (in my massive org I am at lowest dev position, but with salary 2 levels higher, and I get to do this and much more). I've not seen even an attempt to put any dent on job market for those skillsets. If you are worried, ramp up your skills, thats what one should be doing regardless.

packetlost 3y ago

> All I know is that computer programming is qualitatively an entirely different thing than it was six months ago Citation needed. My day to day has not changed one bit, even if I'm using Copilot and ChatGPT. I get marginally faster autocomplete and a buggy template engine. This type of comment is exactly what GP means when they say "grossly overestimated."

jimsimmons 3y ago
Somehow all the non programmers are in full force telling actual coders how their job is changing
- sublinear 3y ago
  This is so blindingly obvious to anyone and I can't believe it's not said enough
fnordpiglet 3y ago
I use ChatGPT throughout the day. I don’t find code completion very useful, but I ask questions about esoteric areas I’m unsure of, or about some numerical technique I’m trying to recall. It unblocks me faster than anything I’ve ever used and I’ve learned more about some topics in the last six months than in the last thirty years. The fact I can ask elaborative questions and get answers that are fairly deep and nuanced is remarkable. Code it emits is often specious but fairly close to usable, more than enough to open a door for me in what used to be hours of fruitless searching and reading countless stack overflow answers telling the questioner they’re asking the wrong question and answering something unrelated instead. That you guys aren’t finding the value tells me you’re using the tool wrong and likely have already decided with prejudice, because I have primary experience that once you try to figure out how it’s useful, you’ll find remarkable utility waiting. It’s ok, man. I’m sure many folks found the computer useless too.
- packetlost 3y ago
  The quality of answers goes down dramatically the more niche your questions are. Further, while it might be helpful for "research", the answers it gives will have very wide variations of accuracy and isn't very useful for the day to day work of an actual software engineer which involves much more than just writing code. It works great if you treat it like a freshman in college who loves hearing their own voice and bullshits answers, but not great at being a fact engine. And to be clear, I didn't say that it wasn't useful. I said that it didn't change my job in any meaningful way.

irrational 3y ago

I work as a programmer for a Fortune 100 company that everyone on the planet has heard of. I have heard nothing from any other developers about using AI. The programmers are not talking about it, the company is not talking about it. I don't know if we are behind the times or if this isn't as big a thing as you are making it out to be.

SoftTalker 3y ago
I've been doing programming for 30+ years and having a hard time seeing how AI will help me. I have templates and scaffolds for most of my reptitive work already. I feel that I'm good enough with SQL that it would take me longer to prompt an AI to write a query than it would for me to just write it. I am open to the possibility that I'm old and set in my ways but it's been a long time since the act of writing the code has been the bottleneck in my work.
- kylelahnakoski 3y ago
  The greatest benefit I have seen so far is using AI for composing code in unfamiliar frameworks and languages. You do not need to read the docs. It is a stackoverflow killer. If you already can speak the language, the best it can do is provide the boilerplate.
  - SoftTalker 3y ago
    I see. That makes sense. I don't compose code in unfamiliar frameworks and languages. I try as much as possible to use the frameworks and languages I know best. I got off of the treadmill of "framework of the year" chasing a while ago.
    - tunesmith 3y ago
      I think this is an example of how it's all different now though. Switching costs have all of a sudden decreased dramatically. There is less cost to picking the right tool for the job. Programmers that have the perfect set of templates and shortcuts and that can code in their chosen language like water and so therefore have no interest in switching to any other language... they're more at risk than the ones with broader experience.

nathan_compton 3y ago

I admit GPT4 is useful, and I have been using it extensively in a fair number of different projects lately. And all it does for me is save time typing. I still have to think exactly the same amount I had to before. I do think its going to improve efficiencies and there will be moderate economic effects, but I also wouldn't say programming is qualitatively a different thing. In a few years, who knows? But the main issue as I see it is that ultimately programs must interact with the real world and solve problems for which there is not an abundance of training data. It isn't that I think it is impossible to build AIs to work in those domains, but I think our current approaches might be slower getting there than the leap to GPT4 encourages us to believe.

sublinear 3y ago

Have you ever considered that "how" to do something is pretty much always several orders of magnitude more complicated than "what" to do? Wouldn't it make more sense to have LLMs replace middle management? Knowing "what" to do is way easier to predict. Even the worst programmer is far better organized than the people gathering the requirements and they have to fill in the blanks all the time. These are junior programmers who know fuck all about a business yet manage to know more about the project overnight compared to management that's been there for many years!

tunesmith 3y ago
My perspective is pretty much opposite yours. A really common trouble is when programmers implement a working solution to a poorly understood problem. Building a good specification is oftentimes much, much harder than implementing that specification. Maybe what you're referring to is what happens in a lot of software organizations, where the "what" is often just phrased as a poorly-thought-out, loose problem, and it's actually up to the developer to come up with the specification and the implementation at the same time. But that's not what I'm talking about. What I'm saying is that if you're good at specification, your job is about to get a whole lot easier, and therefore more valuable, by using these models.
- sublinear 3y ago
  You're right. I appreciate this comment. This is what people come to HN for. Thanks. Fat chance finding any traction with getting devs at those orgs your just described getting traction even with the LLM backing them. People don't like to be wrong. The status quo will continue, perhaps indefinitely. I also still have my doubts that an LLM can be smarter than a fresh-out-of-college junior dev.
  - tunesmith 3y ago
    Thanks for the nice exchange. ;)

CapstanRoller 3y ago

>Programmers that never had to think about "what" to do are are just implementation machines Do such programmers even exist today? I thought the Dot Com Crash wiped out any remnants of such jobs. Every software development job now is a composite job of some sort, demanding skills and duties that were previously separated into other roles. This trend of condensing/combining roles applies to non-tech industries as well. Specialization is still demanded, too, but the predicted future of hyper-specialization where every professional exists in a nanoscopic niche never materialized. We instead got multi-specialization due to an ever-shifting and highly unreliable labor environment. This is why the job title of "GPT Prompt Engineer" is a joke, and will never actually exist.