I don't think it is implausible. If engineers come to management at Google and ask for 4 bn to do a moonshoot 6 month AI training run, then such a smoke screen

I don't think it is implausible. If engineers come to management at Google and ask for 4 bn to do a moonshoot 6 month AI training run, then such a smoke screen statement can be highly effective. Even if they delay their plans for 4 weeks to evaluate the scaling first, it is another 4 weeks headstart for OpenAI. Also not everyone can bring 500m and more to the table to train a big model in the first place. > tremendous progress There are things which just seem to scale and others which don't. So far it seems that adding more data and more compute don't seem to flatten out that much. At least we should give it another year to see where it leads us.