3 ms·

To provide some context on why this is important, the IEAs's report "Credible Pathways to 1.5 °C: Four pillars for action in the 2020s" (https://www.iea.org/rep

To provide some context on why this is important, the IEAs's report "Credible Pathways to 1.5 °C: Four pillars for action in the 2020s" (https://www.iea.org/reports/credible-pathways-to-150c https://www.iea.org/reports/credible-pathways-to-150c) states: "Capacity additions of renewables need to triple from 2022 levels by 2030, reaching around 1 200 GW annually, representing on average 90% of new generation capacity each year"

melling 3y ago
Can someone provide more context? The United States already produces a lot of electricity so the “new” electricity is likely a small fraction of the existing amount. That’s why it’s always the feel good headline of “new electricity” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_of_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_of_the_Unit... The real problem is that we’re still using an incredible amount of coal globally.
- WastingMyTime89 3y ago
  Today new electricity is tomorrow old electricity. We are playing the long game here. A sub-1.5 degree scenario (I initially wrote credible but who am I kidding there is no credible sub-1.5 degree scenario) requires significant energy for both transportation and decarbonisation. This energy needs to be produced without emitting more carbon. That requires massive investment in non-carbon emitting energy production now.
- philipkglass 3y ago
  In 2022 American production of coal generated electricity was down to 854 terawatt hours from its peak of 2,016 terawatt hours in 2007. It's declining even more this year: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=55960 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=55960 In our March Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast the wind share of the U.S. generation mix will increase from 11% last year to 12% this year. We forecast that the solar share will grow to 5% in 2023, up from 4% last year. The natural gas share of generation is forecast to remain unchanged from last year (39%); the coal share of generation is forecast to decline from 20% last year to 17% in 2023. This is a dramatic decline in coal as a percentage of the electricity mix and in absolute consumption terms. There's a graph of historical American electrical sources here going back to 1950: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/electricity-in-the-us.php https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/electricity-... You can see how the big brown wedge at the bottom (coal) peaked and then declined. Replacing coal was financially attractive in the US because the bulk of coal plants were already decades old by 2007 and starting to reach natural end-of-life. It will take longer for global coal consumption to decline because other parts of the world have built more coal plants in more recent years, and the purely financial breakeven point for plant replacement (neglecting pollution externalities) is further in the future.
  - melling 3y ago
    Yes, natural gas is pushing coal out in the United States. Of course, I said “globally “ where those market forces aren’t the same. https://www.worldometers.info/coal/coal-consumption-by-country/ https://www.worldometers.info/coal/coal-consumption-by-count...
    - kieranmaine 3y ago
      The role of gas in replacing coal in the US is now diminishing and could be over in the coming years. The FERC "Energy Infrastructure Update for December 2022" [1] reports that between 2021 Jan - 2022 Dec Wind and Solar additions exceeded those of Natural gas. FERC also predicts that between Jan 2023 and Dec 2025 Natural Gas will add a net amount of 511MW of generating capacity. This compares with 18211 MW of Wind and 74642 MW of Solar. These are listed as "High Probability" additions, which I've been unable to find a description for. Globally the situation is bad. China and India may decarbonise faster than they are. However, if the world continues increasing how much solar and wind can be installed, hopefully the situation improves. Whilst it's a drop in the bucket, the previously coal dominated Australia electricity sector is seeing a steep decline in coal generation [2], showing it is possible. 1. https://cms.ferc.gov/media/energy-infrastructure-update-december-2022 https://cms.ferc.gov/media/energy-infrastructure-update-dece... 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_Australia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_Australi...

melling 3y ago

Can someone provide more context? The United States already produces a lot of electricity so the “new” electricity is likely a small fraction of the existing amount. That’s why it’s always the feel good headline of “new electricity” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_of_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_of_the_Unit... The real problem is that we’re still using an incredible amount of coal globally.

WastingMyTime89 3y ago
Today new electricity is tomorrow old electricity. We are playing the long game here. A sub-1.5 degree scenario (I initially wrote credible but who am I kidding there is no credible sub-1.5 degree scenario) requires significant energy for both transportation and decarbonisation. This energy needs to be produced without emitting more carbon. That requires massive investment in non-carbon emitting energy production now.
philipkglass 3y ago
In 2022 American production of coal generated electricity was down to 854 terawatt hours from its peak of 2,016 terawatt hours in 2007. It's declining even more this year: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=55960 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=55960 In our March Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast the wind share of the U.S. generation mix will increase from 11% last year to 12% this year. We forecast that the solar share will grow to 5% in 2023, up from 4% last year. The natural gas share of generation is forecast to remain unchanged from last year (39%); the coal share of generation is forecast to decline from 20% last year to 17% in 2023. This is a dramatic decline in coal as a percentage of the electricity mix and in absolute consumption terms. There's a graph of historical American electrical sources here going back to 1950: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/electricity-in-the-us.php https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/electricity-... You can see how the big brown wedge at the bottom (coal) peaked and then declined. Replacing coal was financially attractive in the US because the bulk of coal plants were already decades old by 2007 and starting to reach natural end-of-life. It will take longer for global coal consumption to decline because other parts of the world have built more coal plants in more recent years, and the purely financial breakeven point for plant replacement (neglecting pollution externalities) is further in the future.
- melling 3y ago
  Yes, natural gas is pushing coal out in the United States. Of course, I said “globally “ where those market forces aren’t the same. https://www.worldometers.info/coal/coal-consumption-by-country/ https://www.worldometers.info/coal/coal-consumption-by-count...
  - kieranmaine 3y ago
    The role of gas in replacing coal in the US is now diminishing and could be over in the coming years. The FERC "Energy Infrastructure Update for December 2022" [1] reports that between 2021 Jan - 2022 Dec Wind and Solar additions exceeded those of Natural gas. FERC also predicts that between Jan 2023 and Dec 2025 Natural Gas will add a net amount of 511MW of generating capacity. This compares with 18211 MW of Wind and 74642 MW of Solar. These are listed as "High Probability" additions, which I've been unable to find a description for. Globally the situation is bad. China and India may decarbonise faster than they are. However, if the world continues increasing how much solar and wind can be installed, hopefully the situation improves. Whilst it's a drop in the bucket, the previously coal dominated Australia electricity sector is seeing a steep decline in coal generation [2], showing it is possible. 1. https://cms.ferc.gov/media/energy-infrastructure-update-december-2022 https://cms.ferc.gov/media/energy-infrastructure-update-dece... 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_Australia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_Australi...