4 ms·

They don’t mention the potential contribution of cars becoming more reliable over time. I would expect that that’s part of it though I don’t doubt that the shor

They don’t mention the potential contribution of cars becoming more reliable over time. I would expect that that’s part of it though I don’t doubt that the shorter term factors that the article focuses on have dominated recently.

bombcar 3y ago
More reliable cars + fewer miles on the people working from home + used and new cars being astronomically expensive or simply unavailable + new loans being stupid high
MontyCarloHall 3y ago
Cars are far more reliable than they used to be. Remember, even through the mid 90s many cars came with 5 digit odometers because they weren’t expected to ever reach 100k miles. Nowadays a car lasting >200k miles is totally unremarkable.
- Aperocky 3y ago
  Unless you're a mechanic then you can make cars in the 90s last as long as the engine does.
madcaptenor 3y ago
New car prices have gone up over time. I wonder if something like (new car price)/(average car lifespan) or (new car price)/(average miles driven) is stable in the long term. (Of course in the short terms car prices are rather inflated right now.)
- jwagenet 3y ago
  As far as I can tell, increasing cad prices are mostly pegged to inflation (the last couple years excepted).
intrasight 3y ago
Also rust - or lack thereof. My 2004 Volvo has no rust at all and I am in the Northeast. I know that this, and other aspects of reliability, depends greatly on the make and model, but it does seem to me that cars are less susceptible to rust these days.
legitster 3y ago
I would argue that cars today are perhaps less reliable than those made 12.5 years ago. The proliferation of "lifetime" non-serviceable CVTs and digitally controlled everything will probably result in a lot more premature deaths of vehicles.
- jhoechtl 3y ago
  That would be my observation too. Including far less serviceable. Even replacing a broken backlight bulb needs a service station these days.
  - WirelessGigabit 3y ago
    You're lucky is a broken backlight bulb. If the front LED goes out it's > $1,500 for a whole new assembly: https://parts.bmwoforlandpark.com/p/BMW__M240i/Headlight--LED--AHL--high--right/72053919/63117469788.html https://parts.bmwoforlandpark.com/p/BMW__M240i/Headlight--LE...
    - bandyaboot 3y ago
      You don’t need to replace the headlight assembly if the led bulb goes out. You replace the led bulb.
- qbasic_forever 3y ago
  Yep I agree, and doing any maintenance on modern cars requires a super expensive (or sketchy pirated/ebay purchased) diagnostic computer from the manufacturer. For example power steering in older cars was a simple hydraulic mechanical system that could fail gracefully and be troubleshooted with minimal tools. Nowadays steering is electronic drive-by-wire and has many more components like actuators, sensors, etc. that can all fail and stop the entire system.
  - bandyaboot 3y ago
    > Yep I agree, and doing any maintenance on modern cars requires a super expensive (or sketchy pirated/ebay purchased) diagnostic computer from the manufacturer. Unless things have drastically changed in the last 3-4 years, this has not been my experience. I haven’t had any trouble tracking down issues with a standard, cheap code scanner. The biggest issue with doing anything more than routine maintenance on modern cars is how tightly everything is packed together. Often times it just makes a job more difficult, but still doable. Sometimes a job will require too much investment in tools to be practical. > For example power steering in older cars was a simple hydraulic mechanical system that could fail gracefully and be troubleshooted with minimal tools. Nowadays steering is electronic drive-by-wire and has many more components like actuators, sensors, etc. that can all fail and stop the entire system. Do you have anything to suggest that this increased complexity has actually led to an increased rate of failure in the steering system of modern cars? Because I believe in practice it’s been quite the opposite.

bombcar 3y ago

More reliable cars + fewer miles on the people working from home + used and new cars being astronomically expensive or simply unavailable + new loans being stupid high

MontyCarloHall 3y ago

Cars are far more reliable than they used to be. Remember, even through the mid 90s many cars came with 5 digit odometers because they weren’t expected to ever reach 100k miles. Nowadays a car lasting >200k miles is totally unremarkable.

Aperocky 3y ago
Unless you're a mechanic then you can make cars in the 90s last as long as the engine does.

madcaptenor 3y ago

New car prices have gone up over time. I wonder if something like (new car price)/(average car lifespan) or (new car price)/(average miles driven) is stable in the long term. (Of course in the short terms car prices are rather inflated right now.)

jwagenet 3y ago
As far as I can tell, increasing cad prices are mostly pegged to inflation (the last couple years excepted).

intrasight 3y ago

Also rust - or lack thereof. My 2004 Volvo has no rust at all and I am in the Northeast. I know that this, and other aspects of reliability, depends greatly on the make and model, but it does seem to me that cars are less susceptible to rust these days.

legitster 3y ago

I would argue that cars today are perhaps less reliable than those made 12.5 years ago. The proliferation of "lifetime" non-serviceable CVTs and digitally controlled everything will probably result in a lot more premature deaths of vehicles.

jhoechtl 3y ago
That would be my observation too. Including far less serviceable. Even replacing a broken backlight bulb needs a service station these days.
- WirelessGigabit 3y ago
  You're lucky is a broken backlight bulb. If the front LED goes out it's > $1,500 for a whole new assembly: https://parts.bmwoforlandpark.com/p/BMW__M240i/Headlight--LED--AHL--high--right/72053919/63117469788.html https://parts.bmwoforlandpark.com/p/BMW__M240i/Headlight--LE...
  - bandyaboot 3y ago
    You don’t need to replace the headlight assembly if the led bulb goes out. You replace the led bulb.
qbasic_forever 3y ago
Yep I agree, and doing any maintenance on modern cars requires a super expensive (or sketchy pirated/ebay purchased) diagnostic computer from the manufacturer. For example power steering in older cars was a simple hydraulic mechanical system that could fail gracefully and be troubleshooted with minimal tools. Nowadays steering is electronic drive-by-wire and has many more components like actuators, sensors, etc. that can all fail and stop the entire system.
- bandyaboot 3y ago
  > Yep I agree, and doing any maintenance on modern cars requires a super expensive (or sketchy pirated/ebay purchased) diagnostic computer from the manufacturer. Unless things have drastically changed in the last 3-4 years, this has not been my experience. I haven’t had any trouble tracking down issues with a standard, cheap code scanner. The biggest issue with doing anything more than routine maintenance on modern cars is how tightly everything is packed together. Often times it just makes a job more difficult, but still doable. Sometimes a job will require too much investment in tools to be practical. > For example power steering in older cars was a simple hydraulic mechanical system that could fail gracefully and be troubleshooted with minimal tools. Nowadays steering is electronic drive-by-wire and has many more components like actuators, sensors, etc. that can all fail and stop the entire system. Do you have anything to suggest that this increased complexity has actually led to an increased rate of failure in the steering system of modern cars? Because I believe in practice it’s been quite the opposite.