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China has been an incredibly reliable partner to Apple. They were looking to expand that relationship before the US government shut it down. They wouldn't have

by jpgvm 3y ago

China has been an incredibly reliable partner to Apple. They were looking to expand that relationship before the US government shut it down. They wouldn't have been planning that if it was going poorly. Companies are relocating out of China for cost and for political risk of further US decoupling. China itself (apart from rising costs) isn't really the entity causing this despite what the narrative may sound from US media. I'm located in Thailand and my friends are running companies that are on the beneficial end of this migration. It's actually been tough going because atleast for manufacturing the infrastructure isn't really here outside of the auto industry (which is dominated by local factories of Japanese brands). We will see though, I anticipate that much of this will blow over in time, a new status quo will be reached with China that might see their share of exports to the US decline somewhat but total decoupling is unlikely as it would split the world in half.

Longlius 3y ago
> China itself (apart from rising costs) isn't really the entity causing this despite what the narrative may sound from US media. China has been literally abducting foreign workers and you think the fact that companies want to leave the country falls squarely on the shoulders of the US government?
AbrahamParangi 3y ago
If China invades Taiwan, I’m looking forward to the commentary about how it is America’s fault.
- jonhohle 3y ago
  Well the political status of Taiwan is ambiguous, so if the US set up defenses around an area the PRC considered its sovereign territory, that might be considered America’s fault. imagine Florida claiming independence and then China setting up defenses along the Georgia border (not quite the same, but not much is). I’m not saying I agree with China asserting control over Taiwan, but their independence is not recognized by the UN or even the US until this administration. That they’ve been operating this way does not make it true, unfortunately, and the US has now put itself in a position that a non-peaceful resolution to the dispute seems like it will be happening sooner than later. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_independence_movement https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_independence_movement
  - AbrahamParangi 3y ago
    This analysis applies equally to all kinds of incredibly destructive revanchism, such as Nazi Germany's claims on the Sudentenland or Russia's claims on Ukraine. It has never once been righteous.
    - jonhohle 3y ago
      Ukraine is recognized by the UN as independent from Russia since 1945. It’s also not a stretch to consider NATO expansion as one of the primary motivators for the current conflict. Of course there’s no justification for Nazi Germany’s expansion, but it’s not as simple as saying Axis Bad/Allies Good. The environment that led to Nazi Germany was, among other things, set in motion by US involvement in WWI. All of this land dispute and conflict was not unfamiliar to the constitutional framers 150 years before all of that happened, which is why non-interventionism was an early ideal for the US. When you take a country to someone else’s war there will always be unintended consequences. Edit to add: what legitimate claim to sovereignty does Taiwan have? Because they say so, it’s true? Try taking a piece of land you own and succeeding from the country where it resides and then tell us all how it goes. I have no interest in supporting the PRC. I’m just trying to view things apolitically. What right does Taiwan have to be liberated from China more than Hong Kong or even areas that were never under any dispute? IMHO, Hong Kong had more right to independence, but that right was achieved through colonialism, not their own resistance. I’d love to see the PRC evaporate today, but that’s not the reality of the situation. And again, IMHO, the best way for Taiwan to achieve its independence is to become ungovernable and too politically and finically costly for China. That’s a tall order, but also something to think about when sending money to the PRC for every item that says Made in China on it. Also edited to add: at what point would you consider political borders immutable? It’s far less common since 1945, but prior to that borders were pretty malleable. Should the US give Alaska back to Russia? Should Hawaii, Guam, Puerto Rico, Texas, etc. be their own independent systems again? Israel be dismantled and then mantled again as we go back through history restoring old borders until we are all nomadic, independent family tribes fighting for natural resources? Wasn’t the UN already set up to be the arbiter of these changes?
      - 3y ago
phatfish 3y ago
To do business in China you have subjugate yourself before the CCP. This is why Microsoft and Amazon have separate entities running their Clouds, Google just gave up. This has been happening for decades, it's only in the last ~8 years the US and Europe realized they are getting screwed and started to ensure areas of national security were not reliant on China. So yeah, it's all the fault of the US.
naravara 3y ago
> Companies are relocating out of China for cost and for political risk of further US decoupling. Also concerns over IP theft. And furthermore, I don't think American businesses have caught up to thinking this way, but they've really lost the ability to think like people who design and make products nowadays. Quality assurance on even formerly trusted brands has dramatically eroded. They all fall back on efficient logistics and cheap returns to make up for it, but that's a big hidden cost in time and effort from the consumer. The whole consumer products industry needs to rediscover how to make good stuff. I think there will also be a decent bit of training the consumer to accept things costing a few extra bucks instead of impulse buying with the assumption they can easily return it (but will never get around to returning).
- jpgvm 3y ago
  One persons IP theft is another persons democratisation of technology. Chinese Shanzhai culture is actually crazy interesting and full of insane reverse engineering efforts etc. Some of my best memories in Shenzen are talking with local EEs about how they RE all sorts of chips and circuits and not only produce good copies but usually more efficient/cost optimized. As for Chinese quality, you get what you pay for - not much different to the rest of the world. There are design firms and factories in China that make absolutely stellar products with insane fit and finish. However there is tons across the whole quality spectrum with plenty catering to the low end of folks doing pure export products that are destined for those cheap $2 stores etc.
  - naravara 3y ago
    > you get what you pay for No amount of money will make up for the erosion of manufacturing expertise and deprioritization of the perspectives of people who actually know how to make stuff being involved in corporate strategy and staffing. They can't pay for good because they don't even know how to enforce goodness. Apple does, and they get great results. Other storied brands do not.
  - mensetmanusman 3y ago
    Unpolished IP theft just makes it illogical for anyone to invest in R&D. It's a type of tragedy of the commons.
throw0101c 3y ago
> China has been an incredibly reliable partner to Apple. …in the past, because in the past the strategic goals of the the CCP leadership aligned with many companies' with regards to the economy. What are the current and future strategic goals of the current CCP leadership? > They were looking to expand that relationship before the US government shut it down. They wouldn't have been planning that if it was going poorly. It's one thing for a country to want to improve their economy and the living standards: the US (or anyone else) wouldn't really object to that. It's something else to (e.g.) claim entire regions of oceans (in conflict with international law) and start building bases: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_in_the_South_China_Sea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_in_the_So... Most of China's neighbour's don't mind their economic growth; it's their military growth that is getting some folks nervous.

by jpgvm 3y ago

Longlius 3y ago

> China itself (apart from rising costs) isn't really the entity causing this despite what the narrative may sound from US media. China has been literally abducting foreign workers and you think the fact that companies want to leave the country falls squarely on the shoulders of the US government?

AbrahamParangi 3y ago

If China invades Taiwan, I’m looking forward to the commentary about how it is America’s fault.

jonhohle 3y ago
Well the political status of Taiwan is ambiguous, so if the US set up defenses around an area the PRC considered its sovereign territory, that might be considered America’s fault. imagine Florida claiming independence and then China setting up defenses along the Georgia border (not quite the same, but not much is). I’m not saying I agree with China asserting control over Taiwan, but their independence is not recognized by the UN or even the US until this administration. That they’ve been operating this way does not make it true, unfortunately, and the US has now put itself in a position that a non-peaceful resolution to the dispute seems like it will be happening sooner than later. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_independence_movement https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_independence_movement
- AbrahamParangi 3y ago
  This analysis applies equally to all kinds of incredibly destructive revanchism, such as Nazi Germany's claims on the Sudentenland or Russia's claims on Ukraine. It has never once been righteous.
  - jonhohle 3y ago
    Ukraine is recognized by the UN as independent from Russia since 1945. It’s also not a stretch to consider NATO expansion as one of the primary motivators for the current conflict. Of course there’s no justification for Nazi Germany’s expansion, but it’s not as simple as saying Axis Bad/Allies Good. The environment that led to Nazi Germany was, among other things, set in motion by US involvement in WWI. All of this land dispute and conflict was not unfamiliar to the constitutional framers 150 years before all of that happened, which is why non-interventionism was an early ideal for the US. When you take a country to someone else’s war there will always be unintended consequences. Edit to add: what legitimate claim to sovereignty does Taiwan have? Because they say so, it’s true? Try taking a piece of land you own and succeeding from the country where it resides and then tell us all how it goes. I have no interest in supporting the PRC. I’m just trying to view things apolitically. What right does Taiwan have to be liberated from China more than Hong Kong or even areas that were never under any dispute? IMHO, Hong Kong had more right to independence, but that right was achieved through colonialism, not their own resistance. I’d love to see the PRC evaporate today, but that’s not the reality of the situation. And again, IMHO, the best way for Taiwan to achieve its independence is to become ungovernable and too politically and finically costly for China. That’s a tall order, but also something to think about when sending money to the PRC for every item that says Made in China on it. Also edited to add: at what point would you consider political borders immutable? It’s far less common since 1945, but prior to that borders were pretty malleable. Should the US give Alaska back to Russia? Should Hawaii, Guam, Puerto Rico, Texas, etc. be their own independent systems again? Israel be dismantled and then mantled again as we go back through history restoring old borders until we are all nomadic, independent family tribes fighting for natural resources? Wasn’t the UN already set up to be the arbiter of these changes?
    - 3y ago

phatfish 3y ago

To do business in China you have subjugate yourself before the CCP. This is why Microsoft and Amazon have separate entities running their Clouds, Google just gave up. This has been happening for decades, it's only in the last ~8 years the US and Europe realized they are getting screwed and started to ensure areas of national security were not reliant on China. So yeah, it's all the fault of the US.

naravara 3y ago

> Companies are relocating out of China for cost and for political risk of further US decoupling. Also concerns over IP theft. And furthermore, I don't think American businesses have caught up to thinking this way, but they've really lost the ability to think like people who design and make products nowadays. Quality assurance on even formerly trusted brands has dramatically eroded. They all fall back on efficient logistics and cheap returns to make up for it, but that's a big hidden cost in time and effort from the consumer. The whole consumer products industry needs to rediscover how to make good stuff. I think there will also be a decent bit of training the consumer to accept things costing a few extra bucks instead of impulse buying with the assumption they can easily return it (but will never get around to returning).

jpgvm 3y ago
One persons IP theft is another persons democratisation of technology. Chinese Shanzhai culture is actually crazy interesting and full of insane reverse engineering efforts etc. Some of my best memories in Shenzen are talking with local EEs about how they RE all sorts of chips and circuits and not only produce good copies but usually more efficient/cost optimized. As for Chinese quality, you get what you pay for - not much different to the rest of the world. There are design firms and factories in China that make absolutely stellar products with insane fit and finish. However there is tons across the whole quality spectrum with plenty catering to the low end of folks doing pure export products that are destined for those cheap $2 stores etc.
- naravara 3y ago
  > you get what you pay for No amount of money will make up for the erosion of manufacturing expertise and deprioritization of the perspectives of people who actually know how to make stuff being involved in corporate strategy and staffing. They can't pay for good because they don't even know how to enforce goodness. Apple does, and they get great results. Other storied brands do not.
- mensetmanusman 3y ago
  Unpolished IP theft just makes it illogical for anyone to invest in R&D. It's a type of tragedy of the commons.

throw0101c 3y ago

> China has been an incredibly reliable partner to Apple. …in the past, because in the past the strategic goals of the the CCP leadership aligned with many companies' with regards to the economy. What are the current and future strategic goals of the current CCP leadership? > They were looking to expand that relationship before the US government shut it down. They wouldn't have been planning that if it was going poorly. It's one thing for a country to want to improve their economy and the living standards: the US (or anyone else) wouldn't really object to that. It's something else to (e.g.) claim entire regions of oceans (in conflict with international law) and start building bases: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_in_the_South_China_Sea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_in_the_So... Most of China's neighbour's don't mind their economic growth; it's their military growth that is getting some folks nervous.