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> There are also quite convincing studies that show even worse declines for insect populations Has the evidence improved recently? About 3 years ago there were

> There are also quite convincing studies that show even worse declines for insect populations Has the evidence improved recently? About 3 years ago there were a few papers, including a meta analysis (-ish), which were suggestive but also noted the lack of longitudinal studies, and their lack of geographical diversity (Germany and UK as I recall). The consensus was that everyone was certain there was a serious issue, but it was nearly impossible to usefully (even broadly) characterise the issues.

hug 3y ago
While not particularly useful as a scientific method, and obviously not attempting to counter your broader point asking for more detailed analysis, there’s incredibly compelling evidence: Go for a 100 mile drive at night, and count the bugs on your windshield. Ask your parents about it. Ask every 70 year old you know. Bugs are in decline. There’s absolutely no lack of evidence. We know it’s real. We just haven’t catalogued that evidence very well.
- pif 3y ago
  Could this effect be caused, or enhanced, by the aerodynamics of the modern cars?
  - Someone 3y ago
    Could also be that insects evolved to avoid long black patches of ground. That doesn’t look likely, but also not impossible. That’s why we need the study. Also, predator-prey systems (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lotka–Volterra_equations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lotka–Volterra_equations) can have fairly large cycles with huge population swings. That makes verifying that there really is a decline not _that_ easy. You can’t just repeat an insect count done 30 years ago and compare the numbers.
  - micw 3y ago
    You can see the effect on the very same car very clearly. We have been traveling with a camping car from germany to romania. In germany we did not need to clean the windscreen at all. In romania we did it almost every day.
    - pif 3y ago
      Your anecdote is very interesting, thank you!
  - lelandfe 3y ago
    > The research included vintage cars up to 70 years old to see if their less aerodynamic shape meant they killed more bugs, but it found that modern cars actually hit slightly more insects https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/12/car-splatometer-tests-reveal-huge-decline-number-insects https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/12/car-spla...
- shellac 3y ago
  Ironically I removed my mention of the windscreen evidence. There are some citizen science surveys documenting the decline (e.g. a UK study found a 60% decline over 20 years, or something like that). But it's a good example of a strong indicator but not the greatest quality evidence - geographically limited, concerns low flying population only, might be confounded by changes in car aerodynamics, verge / hedgerow maintenance etc.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]

hug 3y ago

While not particularly useful as a scientific method, and obviously not attempting to counter your broader point asking for more detailed analysis, there’s incredibly compelling evidence: Go for a 100 mile drive at night, and count the bugs on your windshield. Ask your parents about it. Ask every 70 year old you know. Bugs are in decline. There’s absolutely no lack of evidence. We know it’s real. We just haven’t catalogued that evidence very well.

pif 3y ago
Could this effect be caused, or enhanced, by the aerodynamics of the modern cars?
- Someone 3y ago
  Could also be that insects evolved to avoid long black patches of ground. That doesn’t look likely, but also not impossible. That’s why we need the study. Also, predator-prey systems (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lotka–Volterra_equations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lotka–Volterra_equations) can have fairly large cycles with huge population swings. That makes verifying that there really is a decline not _that_ easy. You can’t just repeat an insect count done 30 years ago and compare the numbers.
- micw 3y ago
  You can see the effect on the very same car very clearly. We have been traveling with a camping car from germany to romania. In germany we did not need to clean the windscreen at all. In romania we did it almost every day.
  - pif 3y ago
    Your anecdote is very interesting, thank you!
- lelandfe 3y ago
  > The research included vintage cars up to 70 years old to see if their less aerodynamic shape meant they killed more bugs, but it found that modern cars actually hit slightly more insects https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/12/car-splatometer-tests-reveal-huge-decline-number-insects https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/12/car-spla...
shellac 3y ago
Ironically I removed my mention of the windscreen evidence. There are some citizen science surveys documenting the decline (e.g. a UK study found a 60% decline over 20 years, or something like that). But it's a good example of a strong indicator but not the greatest quality evidence - geographically limited, concerns low flying population only, might be confounded by changes in car aerodynamics, verge / hedgerow maintenance etc.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]