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There is definitely some case where this isn't true. An indestructible 8 mpg truck will definitely be more polluting than an EV using solar electricity that las

There is definitely some case where this isn't true. An indestructible 8 mpg truck will definitely be more polluting than an EV using solar electricity that lasts 30 years. But mostly, I agree, and think the cutoff is somewhere around 25 mpg. Our first priorities should not junking 13 year old 30 mpg ICE, but instead greatly reducing the number of 17 mpg vehicles that are still being sold today, especially with no commercial utility like a 4runner.

don-code 3y ago
I'm not sure if your indestructible 8mpg truck example was facetious, but you've actually, very accurately, described the Grumman Long-Life Vehicle - also known as the truck that delivers mail in most of the United States: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grumman_LLV https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grumman_LLV.
- reducesuffering 3y ago
  I wasn't aware those are getting 8 - 10mpg in city, wow. Ya, I'm glad they're replacing those soon. This link referenced a study where hybrids take the equivalent of 325 gallons to produce[0]. This one is 474 for ICE[1] Let's say an EV is 500 - 1,000 gallons of gasoline energy then. One year of those Grumman LLV on the road, 1,500 gallons at 12k miles/yr is easily out-polluting the entire production and use of an EV replacement. [0]https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/green-life/2013/10/ask-mr-green-how-much-energy-make-new-car https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/green-life/2013/10/ask-mr-... [1]https://www.motorbiscuit.com/how-much-energy-to-build-a-car/ https://www.motorbiscuit.com/how-much-energy-to-build-a-car/
  - pengaru 3y ago
    > I wasn't aware those are getting 8 - 10mpg in city, wow. Ya, I'm glad they're replacing those soon. Most ICE vehicles will be in single digits MPG if all you did was repeatedly accelerate and brake at a frequency of curbside mailboxes. It's an ideal for EVs scenario.
    - reducesuffering 3y ago
      Hybrids do pretty well. A lot of the hybrid mpg improvement comes from regen. braking and engine stopping during city driving, not highway. Prius would get 40 - 50 mpg in those conditions.
    - flashback2199 3y ago
      Besides hybrids, this isn't true of at least some gas only vehicles also. I tested this once a few years ago when I had to drive like that for half a day in a non-hybrid 2008 Honda Civic. I filled up before and after to get the MPG and was amazed at how high it was. I think it was high 20's IIRC. The A/C was running the entire time as well.
  - micah94 3y ago
    They've been talking about replacing these things "soon" for decades...
- layman51 3y ago
  I never realized that those vehicles get 8 mpg, but it makes sense because they are always making stops and possibly turning off and on again.
prottog 3y ago
> An indestructible 8 mpg truck will definitely be more polluting than an EV using solar electricity that lasts 30 years. I suppose it depends on how many miles that indestructible truck drives, but I presume on the first day of the 31st year, the moment you buy a new EV to replace the old one, the environmental impact flips the other way? Surely everything that goes into manufacturing a new car is dirty enough to offset that 8 mpg.
- reducesuffering 3y ago
  No, I don't think mfg'ing is anywhere close to dirty enough to offset how bad 8mpg is for any reasonable mileage. I've seen links for 500 gallons gasoline for car production, let's say safely 1,000 for an EV. 8mpg at 12k miles/year is 1,500 gallons, and over 30 years, 45k gallons of gasoline. An EV will be produced at 1k and then for the foreseeable future be charged with excess solar energy during the day mostly. That doesn't seem close.
everdrive 3y ago
My old F150 isn’t very fuel efficient, but it’s used solely to haul things and use the pickup bed. I probably put less than 2000 miles on it a year, which is part of my consideration for tolerating its poor MPG. (18.3 MPG the last time I measured.) I think this is something that has to come into consideration as well. I bought a very old truck and use it sparingly. It uses far less gas than your average commuter car, solely due to how little it’s driven. Given that I bought the truck for $2500 dollars, there is zero chance these days that I could get a comparable vehicle for anywhere near the price. When it finally breaks down, I probably won’t try to buy something ancient again, but I probably also will have spend close to $30k.

don-code 3y ago

I'm not sure if your indestructible 8mpg truck example was facetious, but you've actually, very accurately, described the Grumman Long-Life Vehicle - also known as the truck that delivers mail in most of the United States: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grumman_LLV https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grumman_LLV.

reducesuffering 3y ago
I wasn't aware those are getting 8 - 10mpg in city, wow. Ya, I'm glad they're replacing those soon. This link referenced a study where hybrids take the equivalent of 325 gallons to produce[0]. This one is 474 for ICE[1] Let's say an EV is 500 - 1,000 gallons of gasoline energy then. One year of those Grumman LLV on the road, 1,500 gallons at 12k miles/yr is easily out-polluting the entire production and use of an EV replacement. [0]https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/green-life/2013/10/ask-mr-green-how-much-energy-make-new-car https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/green-life/2013/10/ask-mr-... [1]https://www.motorbiscuit.com/how-much-energy-to-build-a-car/ https://www.motorbiscuit.com/how-much-energy-to-build-a-car/
- pengaru 3y ago
  > I wasn't aware those are getting 8 - 10mpg in city, wow. Ya, I'm glad they're replacing those soon. Most ICE vehicles will be in single digits MPG if all you did was repeatedly accelerate and brake at a frequency of curbside mailboxes. It's an ideal for EVs scenario.
  - reducesuffering 3y ago
    Hybrids do pretty well. A lot of the hybrid mpg improvement comes from regen. braking and engine stopping during city driving, not highway. Prius would get 40 - 50 mpg in those conditions.
  - flashback2199 3y ago
    Besides hybrids, this isn't true of at least some gas only vehicles also. I tested this once a few years ago when I had to drive like that for half a day in a non-hybrid 2008 Honda Civic. I filled up before and after to get the MPG and was amazed at how high it was. I think it was high 20's IIRC. The A/C was running the entire time as well.
- micah94 3y ago
  They've been talking about replacing these things "soon" for decades...
layman51 3y ago
I never realized that those vehicles get 8 mpg, but it makes sense because they are always making stops and possibly turning off and on again.

prottog 3y ago

> An indestructible 8 mpg truck will definitely be more polluting than an EV using solar electricity that lasts 30 years. I suppose it depends on how many miles that indestructible truck drives, but I presume on the first day of the 31st year, the moment you buy a new EV to replace the old one, the environmental impact flips the other way? Surely everything that goes into manufacturing a new car is dirty enough to offset that 8 mpg.

reducesuffering 3y ago
No, I don't think mfg'ing is anywhere close to dirty enough to offset how bad 8mpg is for any reasonable mileage. I've seen links for 500 gallons gasoline for car production, let's say safely 1,000 for an EV. 8mpg at 12k miles/year is 1,500 gallons, and over 30 years, 45k gallons of gasoline. An EV will be produced at 1k and then for the foreseeable future be charged with excess solar energy during the day mostly. That doesn't seem close.

everdrive 3y ago

My old F150 isn’t very fuel efficient, but it’s used solely to haul things and use the pickup bed. I probably put less than 2000 miles on it a year, which is part of my consideration for tolerating its poor MPG. (18.3 MPG the last time I measured.) I think this is something that has to come into consideration as well. I bought a very old truck and use it sparingly. It uses far less gas than your average commuter car, solely due to how little it’s driven. Given that I bought the truck for $2500 dollars, there is zero chance these days that I could get a comparable vehicle for anywhere near the price. When it finally breaks down, I probably won’t try to buy something ancient again, but I probably also will have spend close to $30k.