Market implies a 3.9% probability of default (US 1 year credit default swap, which is basically a product for buying insurance against the risk of a US default

Market implies a 3.9% probability of default (US 1 year credit default swap, which is basically a product for buying insurance against the risk of a US default risk). https://www.msci.com/www/blog-posts/the-cds-market-s-view-on-us/03820087801 https://www.msci.com/www/blog-posts/the-cds-market-s-view-on... It feels like we've gotten here (to the point of massive national debt, and an economy where rate hikes wipe out banks) for a few reasons: 1) The US economy is like a big forest. Good forest management involves doing controlled burns or allowing small fires. The US has prevented small fires. So now we have a very overgrown, very flammable forest. 2) The US abusing its position as a world monopoly, basically to make money. Issuing more currency as one key way of doing that. There are good monopolies and bad monopolies. I'd argue Amazon is a good monopoly - they continually reinvest in making their product better for customers, keeping the potential gap between what a benevolent monopoly could do, and what they're actually doing, small. Then there are other monopolies like certain large enterprise software companies, that take advantage of their moat to extract value and don't reinvest much. The US govt has done the latter. Burning the forest down would be chaotic for the world. The world doesn't want that. The question is - how do you fix it without burning the forest down?