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You would be correct if investment were the bottleneck. It's not. The bottleneck on advanced processes is how fast ASML can build its EUV fabrication machines

You would be correct if investment were the bottleneck. It's not. The bottleneck on advanced processes is how fast ASML can build its EUV fabrication machines and they're extremely complicated pieces of kit with lots of specialized parts that are also extremely complicated pieces of kit. Even with all our modern production ability we're limited in how quickly we can assemble these machines that can actually do the lithography and everybody wants them. ASML currently has a backlog of 100 machines. Intel, Samsung, TSMC, they all want them. They sell for $200m+ a piece. Everyone has the cash for them. ASML just can't produce them fast enough.

bhouston 3y ago
Why can't ASML scale? They are siting on $20B of orders. That is insane. What is ASML's delivery throughput of these machines?
- notaustinpowers 3y ago
  I'm not familiar on the throughput, but their EUV lithography machines are some of the most complex machinery humanity has developed to date. We're lucky this even works, let alone dream of scaling it.
- hoorible 3y ago
  My understanding is that it could, but these machines take a really long time to build. Probably a simplification, but it’s likely not unfair to say that by the time they scaled 3nm production, we’d already have moved on to 2nm, etc Asianometry YouTube channel did a few really good videos on chip fabbing and the unique challenges. Scale is addressed IIRC. Highly recommend.
- Veliladon 3y ago
  They make about 50 a year. One of the parts in these machines is a 30cm mirror that is the flattest that humans can make with our current level of technology. If you have a way to churn them out please let Zeiss SMT know.
  - cortesoft 3y ago
    Do whatever they are doing now, but twice? What in the process wouldn’t work with this method?
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
    - jb1991 3y ago
      Peak HN. Surely a casual brainstorm by a casual reader of the thread somehow unlocks all of the challenges that ASML is facing.
      - cortesoft 3y ago
        I figured there was something I was missing, I was asking to try to get an answer. Why won’t the naive scaling method work?
      - tekno45 3y ago
        3nm.Do()
        tcmart14 3y ago
        I feel like we are missing a GOTO in this one
    - gamblor956 3y ago
      Doing twice as much of it wouldn't scale. Making a super-flat mirror is extremely difficult and requires state-of-the-art facilities, and state-of-the-art equipment. And highly trained, experienced employees. And there aren't enough of any of that to scale rapidly. It's not just about scaling 1 input. You have to scale the entire supply chain.
      - cortesoft 3y ago
        Right, when I said “do everything twice” I was including the entire supply chain. If there is enough money sitting on the table, it seems like it would be worth it to do that. But it sounds like it would take too long with uncertain returns?
- michelb 3y ago
  Here's a good docu about ASML that shows some of the challenges in making these machines: https://www.vpro.nl/programmas/tegenlicht/kijk/backlight/asmls-secret.html https://www.vpro.nl/programmas/tegenlicht/kijk/backlight/asm...
- renewiltord 3y ago
  The answer is quite simple, actually. It's a hardware business so they have to right-size their equipment to projected demand and the tool-up time in specialty hardware is long because of the need for specialty components. i.e. they need to project out demand x years in advance because their things are expensive and slow to build, and their components vendors have the same problem with the additional problem that their components vendors only have one customer for some of their products: them. There is no other equivalent use for much of what they need so if they fuck it up they've got too much equipment too fast. This is a classic hardware business problem.
- Timshel 3y ago
  A bit late to the party but the 100 backorders is in fact quite small if you consider they make 50 a year (as mentionned by another comment). Even if it was possible to double the production for free in a year then without new orders when this come online you only have 50 orders left to process ... If you look some plane production backorders are in the decade I believe atm. Looking at the A320 orders you can see how they ramp up production (and this ramp up might production line switching from aircraft type not new lines) : https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A320neo_family_orders_and_deliveries https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A320neo_famil...

bhouston 3y ago

Why can't ASML scale? They are siting on $20B of orders. That is insane. What is ASML's delivery throughput of these machines?

notaustinpowers 3y ago
I'm not familiar on the throughput, but their EUV lithography machines are some of the most complex machinery humanity has developed to date. We're lucky this even works, let alone dream of scaling it.
hoorible 3y ago
My understanding is that it could, but these machines take a really long time to build. Probably a simplification, but it’s likely not unfair to say that by the time they scaled 3nm production, we’d already have moved on to 2nm, etc Asianometry YouTube channel did a few really good videos on chip fabbing and the unique challenges. Scale is addressed IIRC. Highly recommend.
Veliladon 3y ago
They make about 50 a year. One of the parts in these machines is a 30cm mirror that is the flattest that humans can make with our current level of technology. If you have a way to churn them out please let Zeiss SMT know.
- cortesoft 3y ago
  Do whatever they are doing now, but twice? What in the process wouldn’t work with this method?
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - jb1991 3y ago
    Peak HN. Surely a casual brainstorm by a casual reader of the thread somehow unlocks all of the challenges that ASML is facing.
    - cortesoft 3y ago
      I figured there was something I was missing, I was asking to try to get an answer. Why won’t the naive scaling method work?
    - tekno45 3y ago
      3nm.Do()
      - tcmart14 3y ago
        I feel like we are missing a GOTO in this one
  - gamblor956 3y ago
    Doing twice as much of it wouldn't scale. Making a super-flat mirror is extremely difficult and requires state-of-the-art facilities, and state-of-the-art equipment. And highly trained, experienced employees. And there aren't enough of any of that to scale rapidly. It's not just about scaling 1 input. You have to scale the entire supply chain.
    - cortesoft 3y ago
      Right, when I said “do everything twice” I was including the entire supply chain. If there is enough money sitting on the table, it seems like it would be worth it to do that. But it sounds like it would take too long with uncertain returns?
michelb 3y ago
Here's a good docu about ASML that shows some of the challenges in making these machines: https://www.vpro.nl/programmas/tegenlicht/kijk/backlight/asmls-secret.html https://www.vpro.nl/programmas/tegenlicht/kijk/backlight/asm...
renewiltord 3y ago
The answer is quite simple, actually. It's a hardware business so they have to right-size their equipment to projected demand and the tool-up time in specialty hardware is long because of the need for specialty components. i.e. they need to project out demand x years in advance because their things are expensive and slow to build, and their components vendors have the same problem with the additional problem that their components vendors only have one customer for some of their products: them. There is no other equivalent use for much of what they need so if they fuck it up they've got too much equipment too fast. This is a classic hardware business problem.
Timshel 3y ago
A bit late to the party but the 100 backorders is in fact quite small if you consider they make 50 a year (as mentionned by another comment). Even if it was possible to double the production for free in a year then without new orders when this come online you only have 50 orders left to process ... If you look some plane production backorders are in the decade I believe atm. Looking at the A320 orders you can see how they ramp up production (and this ramp up might production line switching from aircraft type not new lines) : https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A320neo_family_orders_and_deliveries https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A320neo_famil...