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article says decline of smoking is one of the big factors.

ggm 3y ago
There would be a shittonne of confounding factors. I don't doubt smoking is part of it saying that, but over the last 20 years diet has gone from "fat is bad" to "this fat is less bad" to "fat isn't bad its sugar, stupid". Hydrogenated margerine was just heading out the door 20 years ago. The cohort who lived off it probably had their heart attacks by now. (I don't think "i can't believe its not butter" caused the heart attacks, I just point out there's been wider societal changes than just smoking: Exercise is trendy again, and TV has got crap so people do less couch time than they used to) I'm sure the real science here is good. If they say it's smoking, and they ran the numbers, I'd believe them. You know, it says "smoking" in a sentence which says "and other factors" to me. The truly interesting thing is the variance in survival rates between POC and white America has reduced. Thats really good. Because survival is about improved treatment and detection. It may mean a POC harming bias in social/medical services and access to quality healthcare has improved, or that their income levels have aligned more with mainstream america and so the health improvement is about lifestyle lift.
- riffraff 3y ago
  > Exercise is trendy again Is it a last 20 year development? I remember people going to the gym in the '90s. Step aerobics anyone?
  - ggm 3y ago
    the cohort who died of heart attacks were not young. If you were gym young in the 90s, you formed the body of people who didn't die over the next 30 years, and helped moved the dial. If you were gym old in the 90s, and lived on tater tots smothered in lard, chain smoked and drank sprite out of a bucket, you were the cohort who did die over the next 30 years. Mr Kurtz, he dead. (Marlon Brando wouldn't have known a Gym after the waterfront)
  - HlessClaudesman 3y ago
    Yeah, remember we are talking about effects in the aggregate, was the 1980s / 90s fitness trend actually widespread in different cohorts or just more visible in your cohort? I dont know, but today we do see quite a few men of prime heart attack age in their 50s who are absolutely Jeff Bezos jacked. Increased fitness and decreased smoking in most groups seems to explain the results.
- sokoloff 3y ago
  > TV has got crap so people do less couch time than they used to Do they do less couch time? I’d have guessed that streaming/on-demand services and mobile phone usage at home have well more than made up for what traditional TV has lost.
- dangwhy 3y ago
  > Exercise is trendy again, and TV has got crap so people do less couch time than they used to This is not true at all. Sedentary time increased to all time highs to 12hrs/day and 3/4 of population is obese.
  - ggm 3y ago
    A problem which will solve itself in mortality stats in the future. An economist minded colleague said if you want to reduce end of life costs in healthcare then encourage smokers over 45 to puff more not less and remove the problem faster.
paulpauper 3y ago
but increased fatness should offset this, i would assume

ggm 3y ago

There would be a shittonne of confounding factors. I don't doubt smoking is part of it saying that, but over the last 20 years diet has gone from "fat is bad" to "this fat is less bad" to "fat isn't bad its sugar, stupid". Hydrogenated margerine was just heading out the door 20 years ago. The cohort who lived off it probably had their heart attacks by now. (I don't think "i can't believe its not butter" caused the heart attacks, I just point out there's been wider societal changes than just smoking: Exercise is trendy again, and TV has got crap so people do less couch time than they used to) I'm sure the real science here is good. If they say it's smoking, and they ran the numbers, I'd believe them. You know, it says "smoking" in a sentence which says "and other factors" to me. The truly interesting thing is the variance in survival rates between POC and white America has reduced. Thats really good. Because survival is about improved treatment and detection. It may mean a POC harming bias in social/medical services and access to quality healthcare has improved, or that their income levels have aligned more with mainstream america and so the health improvement is about lifestyle lift.

riffraff 3y ago
> Exercise is trendy again Is it a last 20 year development? I remember people going to the gym in the '90s. Step aerobics anyone?
- ggm 3y ago
  the cohort who died of heart attacks were not young. If you were gym young in the 90s, you formed the body of people who didn't die over the next 30 years, and helped moved the dial. If you were gym old in the 90s, and lived on tater tots smothered in lard, chain smoked and drank sprite out of a bucket, you were the cohort who did die over the next 30 years. Mr Kurtz, he dead. (Marlon Brando wouldn't have known a Gym after the waterfront)
- HlessClaudesman 3y ago
  Yeah, remember we are talking about effects in the aggregate, was the 1980s / 90s fitness trend actually widespread in different cohorts or just more visible in your cohort? I dont know, but today we do see quite a few men of prime heart attack age in their 50s who are absolutely Jeff Bezos jacked. Increased fitness and decreased smoking in most groups seems to explain the results.
sokoloff 3y ago
> TV has got crap so people do less couch time than they used to Do they do less couch time? I’d have guessed that streaming/on-demand services and mobile phone usage at home have well more than made up for what traditional TV has lost.
dangwhy 3y ago
> Exercise is trendy again, and TV has got crap so people do less couch time than they used to This is not true at all. Sedentary time increased to all time highs to 12hrs/day and 3/4 of population is obese.
- ggm 3y ago
  A problem which will solve itself in mortality stats in the future. An economist minded colleague said if you want to reduce end of life costs in healthcare then encourage smokers over 45 to puff more not less and remove the problem faster.

paulpauper 3y ago

but increased fatness should offset this, i would assume