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>That’s bonkers and unacceptably high. Well, that's your opinion. My estimate of my risk of death is 100/100, so 1/100 does not seem that high to me. What I

by vba616 3y ago

>That’s bonkers and unacceptably high. Well, that's your opinion. My estimate of my risk of death is 100/100, so 1/100 does not seem that high to me. What I think could legitimately be called "bonkers and unacceptably high" is the prevalence of medical errors as a cause of death in the US. "Analyzing medical death rate data over an eight-year period, Johns Hopkins patient safety experts have calculated that more than 250,000 deaths per year are due to medical error in the U.S." https://hub.jhu.edu/2016/05/03/medical-errors-third-leading-cause-of-death/ https://hub.jhu.edu/2016/05/03/medical-errors-third-leading-... Since I don't drive drunk, and usually miss rush hour, I do think it's reasonable for me to consider going to the doctor the most dangerous thing I do.

piloto_ciego 3y ago
While I agree that the rate of medical mistakes is unacceptably high and the profession is just ridiculous in terms of how they behave from a risk management standpoint… this appears some wild base rate fallacy here, in a big way. The people going to the doctor’s office because they think something is wrong are by definition the more fragile patents. I say this as someone who was misdiagnosed for some time and has dealt with the inertia and bureaucracy of the system. I spent most of my adult life flying bush planes around Alaska and working to try to make things safer in that (horrifically unsafe) industry. Trust me when I say 1/100 is unacceptable and absurd in the extreme and humans are terrible at assessing risk objectively. Just your statement: “I don’t drive drunk and I usually miss rush hour” is indicative of misunderstanding how this works. That’s ok! Everyone does that, I did too until I was trained on specific ways to think about risk and risk mitigation strategies. The risk often doesn’t come down to individual action - it’s links in the chain, or the Swiss cheese model of you prefer and when all the factors line up an accident is more likely. It’s great that you don’t drink and drive, it is also great that you avoid driving at peak hours. But do you actively do risk mitigation before driving? Probably not, more power to you if you do, but probably not. i guess this is a long way to say "something you are exposed to every day multiple times" is way different than a (albeit terrible) system you are exposed to when you are old and infirm and already prone to death. still, everyone thinks the 1/100 won't be them so they feel it isn't a problem… that is a poor way to figure out "what should we do."
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by vba616 3y ago

piloto_ciego 3y ago

While I agree that the rate of medical mistakes is unacceptably high and the profession is just ridiculous in terms of how they behave from a risk management standpoint… this appears some wild base rate fallacy here, in a big way. The people going to the doctor’s office because they think something is wrong are by definition the more fragile patents. I say this as someone who was misdiagnosed for some time and has dealt with the inertia and bureaucracy of the system. I spent most of my adult life flying bush planes around Alaska and working to try to make things safer in that (horrifically unsafe) industry. Trust me when I say 1/100 is unacceptable and absurd in the extreme and humans are terrible at assessing risk objectively. Just your statement: “I don’t drive drunk and I usually miss rush hour” is indicative of misunderstanding how this works. That’s ok! Everyone does that, I did too until I was trained on specific ways to think about risk and risk mitigation strategies. The risk often doesn’t come down to individual action - it’s links in the chain, or the Swiss cheese model of you prefer and when all the factors line up an accident is more likely. It’s great that you don’t drink and drive, it is also great that you avoid driving at peak hours. But do you actively do risk mitigation before driving? Probably not, more power to you if you do, but probably not. i guess this is a long way to say "something you are exposed to every day multiple times" is way different than a (albeit terrible) system you are exposed to when you are old and infirm and already prone to death. still, everyone thinks the 1/100 won't be them so they feel it isn't a problem… that is a poor way to figure out "what should we do."

deleted 3y ago
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