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My favorite Berlin Wall story was a friend of mine wrote an opinion piece for the college newspaper in the fall of 1989 talking about the moves towards democrac

by dhosek 3y ago

My favorite Berlin Wall story was a friend of mine wrote an opinion piece for the college newspaper in the fall of 1989 talking about the moves towards democracy in the Warsaw Pact nations which concluded with the line, “but don’t expect the Berlin Wall to come down any time soon.” He submitted the piece at the beginning of November. The paper came out on November 13th.

huijzer 3y ago
Similar funny story. There was a Dutch historian who announced that Putin would never attack Ukraine full scale and he did this the night before the invasion. (Apart from that, I still respect the historian. He might not be the best, but he is a good storyteller.)
- S_Pineapple 3y ago
  Do you happen to know the name of said historian? I am curious to read what his specific reasoning was!
  - pantalaimon 3y ago
    Wasn’t that an opinion that was shared by many back then - that a full invasion would be way too costly with little to gain and Russia is just sabre-rattling? Most people in Europe could not imagine a full out war and considered the warnings from the US as merge fear mongering.
  - nemima 3y ago
    Maarten van Rossem I think
CPLX 3y ago
Predicting things is hard. I was standing on West Street in lower Manhattan looking up at the World Trade Center on fire, on a cell phone with my mother, and said “well it doesn’t look like it’s going to fall down or anything.”
macintux 3y ago
I recently rediscovered a paper I wrote in 1987-88, my senior year in high school, about a united Europe. My timing wasn’t quite as exquisite as your friend’s, but unsurprisingly I too failed to see what would happen so soon. Tiananmen Square felt like reality crushing what briefly seemed like an end to a dark period of history.
hutzlibu 3y ago
"My favorite Berlin Wall story was a friend of mine wrote an opinion piece for the college newspaper in the fall of 1989 talking about the moves towards democracy in the Warsaw Pact nations which concluded with the line, “but don’t expect the Berlin Wall to come down any time soon.” He submitted the piece at the beginning of November. The paper came out on November 13th. " Nobody really suspected that the wall would totally come down the way it did, as far as I know. (And I know a bit, because I was there when the demonstrations started, even though I could barely talk at that time) Tiananmen square massacre in china just happened before and even though russia itself was opening up - east germany was still under tight control of Stalinists, who would have rather shot everyone, than giving up. This was the general sentiment. So there were lots of demonstrations before and slight optimism that some opening up could be achieved and some democratic reforms could be done, but till the very end, the fear was very real (and warranted) that it all could turn into a bloodbath any moment. Luckily, it didn't. For many reasons obviously, but mainly it was that the people in power were way weaker, than everyone believed. You cannot just have people shot, you need soldiers or police doing it. And when enough of those soldiers or police have relatives who joined the demonstrations - then they will eventually refuse. And the usual fall back plan, to use russian troops in this case, was no option anymore as Gorbatschow made clear internally. One anecdote I know, is that a friend of my family, a fireman, was ordered to use his fire truck against demonstrators. And he refused, saying a fire truck is only for real fire. A brave move, as he also had family and dissent was dangerous (and he would have suffered, if it would have all turned out different). I suspect many such small or bigger insubordinations happened, making the power base of the party finally crumble and then the wall crumbled down as a very visible signal of their weakness and then history happened.
- pjc50 3y ago
  > the people in power were way weaker, than everyone believed. You cannot just have people shot, you need soldiers or police doing it I've heard a similar story about the collapse of Ceaucescu in Romania. The regime didn't just rely on police but on bussing in "counter protestors" (loyalist miners armed with pickaxe handles) to deal with demos. But things turned so quickly once the big speech was booed that everything fell apart - and internal security factions began to turn on one another ..

by dhosek 3y ago

huijzer 3y ago

Similar funny story. There was a Dutch historian who announced that Putin would never attack Ukraine full scale and he did this the night before the invasion. (Apart from that, I still respect the historian. He might not be the best, but he is a good storyteller.)

S_Pineapple 3y ago
Do you happen to know the name of said historian? I am curious to read what his specific reasoning was!
- pantalaimon 3y ago
  Wasn’t that an opinion that was shared by many back then - that a full invasion would be way too costly with little to gain and Russia is just sabre-rattling? Most people in Europe could not imagine a full out war and considered the warnings from the US as merge fear mongering.
- nemima 3y ago
  Maarten van Rossem I think

CPLX 3y ago

Predicting things is hard. I was standing on West Street in lower Manhattan looking up at the World Trade Center on fire, on a cell phone with my mother, and said “well it doesn’t look like it’s going to fall down or anything.”

macintux 3y ago

I recently rediscovered a paper I wrote in 1987-88, my senior year in high school, about a united Europe. My timing wasn’t quite as exquisite as your friend’s, but unsurprisingly I too failed to see what would happen so soon. Tiananmen Square felt like reality crushing what briefly seemed like an end to a dark period of history.

hutzlibu 3y ago

"My favorite Berlin Wall story was a friend of mine wrote an opinion piece for the college newspaper in the fall of 1989 talking about the moves towards democracy in the Warsaw Pact nations which concluded with the line, “but don’t expect the Berlin Wall to come down any time soon.” He submitted the piece at the beginning of November. The paper came out on November 13th. " Nobody really suspected that the wall would totally come down the way it did, as far as I know. (And I know a bit, because I was there when the demonstrations started, even though I could barely talk at that time) Tiananmen square massacre in china just happened before and even though russia itself was opening up - east germany was still under tight control of Stalinists, who would have rather shot everyone, than giving up. This was the general sentiment. So there were lots of demonstrations before and slight optimism that some opening up could be achieved and some democratic reforms could be done, but till the very end, the fear was very real (and warranted) that it all could turn into a bloodbath any moment. Luckily, it didn't. For many reasons obviously, but mainly it was that the people in power were way weaker, than everyone believed. You cannot just have people shot, you need soldiers or police doing it. And when enough of those soldiers or police have relatives who joined the demonstrations - then they will eventually refuse. And the usual fall back plan, to use russian troops in this case, was no option anymore as Gorbatschow made clear internally. One anecdote I know, is that a friend of my family, a fireman, was ordered to use his fire truck against demonstrators. And he refused, saying a fire truck is only for real fire. A brave move, as he also had family and dissent was dangerous (and he would have suffered, if it would have all turned out different). I suspect many such small or bigger insubordinations happened, making the power base of the party finally crumble and then the wall crumbled down as a very visible signal of their weakness and then history happened.

pjc50 3y ago
> the people in power were way weaker, than everyone believed. You cannot just have people shot, you need soldiers or police doing it I've heard a similar story about the collapse of Ceaucescu in Romania. The regime didn't just rely on police but on bussing in "counter protestors" (loyalist miners armed with pickaxe handles) to deal with demos. But things turned so quickly once the big speech was booed that everything fell apart - and internal security factions began to turn on one another ..